February** Dynamic Incentive Program
The Philippines has recently shown a strong interest in China's islands and reefs, particularly Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal. A few days ago, the Philippines attempted to forcibly occupy Scarborough Shoal, but was promptly expelled by the Chinese Coast Guard. Still, the Philippines has not given up on its ambitions, but has upgraded its tactics and plans to deploy missiles that will keep many of China's islands and reefs within range. Surprisingly, it was India that provided the missiles. Why is India intervening in the South China Sea? Will the Philippines really use force to seize the island? If the Philippines deploys missiles, how will China respond?
India's move to provide the Philippines with a supersonic cruise missile called "BrahMos" has aroused widespread concern and discussion in the international community. This move has been widely interpreted as a form of geopolitical intervention by India in the South China Sea and has increased tensions in the South China Sea to some extent. However, we need to dig deeper into the complex motivations and implications behind this move.
The "anti-China" strategy of the Philippines in recent years is gradually becoming clear. As one of the key parties to the South China Sea dispute, the Philippines** is trying to strengthen its influence in regional affairs and counter China's claims in the South China Sea by attracting more countries to intervene in the South China Sea. At the same time, the Philippines** is also actively seeking cooperation with other countries to address potential security risks in the South China Sea. The signing of a coast guard cooperation agreement with Vietnam and the discussion of a military stationing agreement with Japan are both examples of the Philippines' efforts to seek multi-party support and cooperation in regional security matters.
India's choice to provide support to the Philippines at this time also exposes some of India's considerations in regional strategy. As a country with strong regional influence, India's military support to the Philippines is both a response to China's activities in the South China Sea and a manifestation of India's geopolitical pursuit of additional interests. India's move is intended to take advantage of the Philippines' geopolitical advantages in order to exert greater influence in the South China Sea and promote its geostrategic layout in the Indo-Pacific region.
Such geopolitical games may also bring new uncertainties to the stability and security of the South China Sea. The "anti-China" strategy of the Philippines and India's geostrategic layout may lead to a tougher stance on all parties in the South China Sea, which will further exacerbate tensions in the South China Sea. Therefore, it is necessary for the international community to pay close attention to the development of the situation in the South China Sea and call on all parties to jointly maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea through dialogue and cooperation.
Second, India has always viewed China as a strategic rival and has a clear intention to take China's place in Asia and compete fiercely with China. Although this competition is still at a low level for the time being, India's hostility towards China is unquestionable.
In addition to this, India and the Philippines share some similarities, especially when it comes to territorial ambitions against China. Just as the Philippines has expressed concern about China's islands and reefs in the South China Sea, India has set its sights on the Sino-Indian border region and has repeatedly carried out provocative actions there. It is likely that India is supplying missiles to the Philippines in an attempt to contain China through cooperation between the Philippines and the United States in the South China Sea.
It should be noted, however, that India occupies a much more advantageous position in the regional balance of power than the Philippines. Moreover, the supersonic missiles that India will provide have a range of about 300 kilometers, and have advanced characteristics such as performing serpentine maneuvers, so that they can evade interception and have strong penetration capabilities. This will undoubtedly improve the Philippines' attack capability, but given the large size of the missiles and the lack of corresponding large ** in the Philippines itself, these missiles may be mainly deployed on some islands, which limits their strategic role and effectiveness to a certain extent.
If the Philippines deploys it to the western islands near the South China Sea, China's Ren'ai Jiao and other reefs and nearby waters will be threatened. However, the Chinese side has longer-range long-range missiles that can attack Philippine missile positions from a long distance. Once the Philippines deploys missiles, they are locked in by China. In addition, China has such an ace as the J-20**, which is enough to easily deal with this threat.