The survey data of Chinese consumers' consumption willingness in the fourth quarter of 2023, jointly organized by the China Association of Small and Medium-sized Commercial Enterprises and Fong's (Chongqing) Data Technology Co., Ltd.***, was released in Chongqing. According to the report, consumers' current consumption willingness is in a normal state, and it is expected that the family economic situation will improve, and the consumption willingness will tend to be positive, and the expected consumer demand will release industrial development signals.
Consumption willingness is expected to increase, and the consumption structure is significantly differentiated
According to the survey data, China's consumer willingness index in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 1329, higher than the critical value of 100. Among them, the spot consumption willingness index, which represents the current consumption intention, is 1186. Higher than the critical value of 100; The expected consumption willingness index, which represents future consumption intention, is 1473. It is significantly higher than the critical value of 100.
More than nine in ten consumers believe that their family's financial situation will improve or remain unchanged after one year, and based on relatively positive economic expectations, the majority of consumers (541%) believe that consumer spending will increase in the coming year, significantly exceeding the proportion that believe it will decrease (7.).5%）。Survey data shows that consumption is expected to continue to play a fundamental role in stable economic growth in 2024.
At the same time, the report shows that the structure of consumption willingness is more differentiated. Consumers in the Northeast, East and Central regions (index values are .2 and 1333) significantly higher than consumers in the western region (1275), the consumption willingness index of urban consumers (1354) is also significantly higher than that of rural consumers (124.).1), 34 years old and below and 35-39 years old consumer willingness index (index values are 1353 and 1335) significantly higher than consumers aged 60 and over (128.)2）。The survey data shows that income disparity is the main reason for the structural differentiation of consumption intention, and the key to boosting consumption is to increase income.
Children's education, savings, mortgage repayment, medical care and tourism have become the main flow of surplus money for families
According to the survey data, children's education, savings, mortgage repayment, medical care and tourism are the main directions for the use of surplus money in addition to daily consumption expenditures2% and 270%。Other uses are: "Investment**, Insurance" (189%), beauty, health care" (150%), car loan repayment" (118%), the purchase of value-preserving goods" (96%), rent" (94%), housekeeping" (64%）。In addition, 114% of consumers say they have "no money to spare" beyond their daily consumption expenses.
According to the analysis, the above survey data convey four messages worthy of attention, one is that children's education has greater economic pressure on families, which can partly explain the reason for the current decline in China's birth rate. Second, the rapid development of the real estate market for many years has gradually become one of the factors restricting the promotion of consumption today, while playing a role in promoting economic growth at that time. Third, with the acceleration of China's aging trend, medical care will occupy a greater proportion of the use of surplus money, and improving the medical security system is conducive to further stabilizing consumption. Fourth, maintaining the steady and healthy development of the capital market is of great significance to boosting public confidence and promoting the upgrading of consumption structure. 72.1% of respondents said they would be willing to increase their consumer spending with an increase in income. This shows that ensuring a steady increase in the income of urban and rural residents, especially the income of low- and middle-income consumers with a greater marginal propensity to consume, is the key to boosting consumer confidence.
Private enterprises are the main body of social employment, pay close attention to the implementation of a series of policies to promote the development of the private economy, improve the business environment of private enterprises, private enterprise profit growth can also promote the overall stability of the national economy, bring about the steady growth of consumer income, it is extremely important and urgent.
It is expected that consumer demand will release industrial development signals
As for what goods or services consumers intend to buy in the next six months, the survey data shows that the top five are home appliances and digital products, clothing, shoes, hats and bags, travel, education and training, and leisure and fitness.
According to the survey data, home appliances and digital products, as well as regular daily necessities such as clothing, shoes, hats, bags and bags, are still attractive to consumers, and they may become important areas to promote consumption growth and unleash consumption momentum. Tourism is the preferred service item in addition to the purchase of goods, which means that the domestic tourism industry has a large space for development. Among them, the proportion of high-income consumers choosing travel is as high as 601%, which is significantly higher than middle-income consumers (43.).2%) and low-income consumers (283%), which once again illustrates the importance of revenue growth to the development of the tourism industry.
In addition, 116% of consumers said that they intend to buy cars in the next six months, roughly calculated according to the country's 500 million households, which means that there are 50 million cars (may include second-hand cars), to a certain extent, indicating that domestic car sales in 2024 are still expected to exceed 30 million units, which can be regarded as a positive signal for the automotive industry. At the same time, more than half of the respondents expressed their willingness to choose new energy vehicles, indicating that new energy vehicles have a good market foundation in China.
*: Xinhua Finance.