In 2023, the demand for cement downstream market will be weak, cement production will hit new lows, overcapacity will intensify, and corporate profits will decline and losses will become a trend. WhileThere are not a few ...... in the sand and gravel industry that will auction in 2023, sell assets, and go bankruptFor the future development of the sand and gravel industry, many people are still at a loss.
There is no hope of real estate recovery, and the demand for sand and gravel remains sluggish
It is understood that at the beginning of 2024, several core cities will introduce relaxation policies: on January 27,Guangzhou has cancelled the purchase restriction on housing over 120 square meters；January 30thNon-residents who have paid social security or individual income tax for 5 years in Shanghai can purchase one house outside the outer ring road；January 30thSuzhou has completely canceled purchase restrictions。3 core cities, 3 ways to relax.
However, after the relaxation of various purchase restrictions,The real estate market has not had the expected effect, and even some areas have gone the opposite way, such as Suzhou after the cancellation of purchase restrictions, but it is "smashing"., 1245 sets** price reduction within 24 hours. You think this is a good opportunity, but what others see is an opportunity to sell. If income expectations do not recover, demand will not recover, and confidence will not be able to be talked about.
Despite the most accommodative environment in recent times on the demand side in the first month of 2024, the decline in sales has not stopped. The total sales of the top 10 real estate enterprisesClose to 120 billion yuan, compared to 177.9 billion yuan in January 2023A decrease of 33%.
Source: CRIC Real Estate Research Institute.
Industry analysts said that on the one hand, the epidemic had just been released in the same period last year, and the backlog of demand was quickly released, resulting in a high relative base in the market; On the other hand,At present, the overall market is still relatively sluggish, and the sales of real estate companies have not improved significantly. The industry is still in the risk clearance periodAlthough the recent policy has been continuously optimized and released, and the regulator has supported the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises and boosted market confidence, it will take time for market confidence and industry expectations to recover.
According to the 2023 China Sand and Gravel Industry Operation Report released by the China Sand and Gravel Association,In 2023, the output of sand and gravel will continue to decline, and the net profit of some sand and gravel enterprises will decline to varying degrees, or even lose money. In particular, the sand and gravel production capacity in the coastal areas along the Yangtze River has been released one after anotherThe risk of overcapacity of sand and gravel in the country has initially emerged, and the market is in a state of oversupply.
And the real estate is still bottoming out, judging from the trend of the whole year, the real estate policy at the beginning of this year, not only does not have a similar "retaliatory demand".There is no confidence in the real estate market, so the whole market has not shown signs of improvement.
Overcapacity continues to increase, and the "* war" will continue
From the perspective of the cement market, the multi-regional battle in 2023 has been extended to 2024. On February 20, a cement company in Loudi, Hunan Province, took the lead in reducing the inventory pressure of **20 yuan in the off-season. Other enterprises in the region may follow suit. **End,New production capacity will continue to be released in 2024, and some production lines that were originally planned to be ignited and put into operation before the end of 2023 have been postponed to 2024, and some projects under construction have been accelerated or put into operation in 2024 ahead of schedule, and the overcapacity situation will continue to increase.
According to incomplete statistics,In 2024, large-scale sand and gravel production lines will also be put into operationThe representative ones are: China National Building Materials East China Materials Zongyang Huanggongshan MineThe annual output is 20 million tonsProject, Guichi Hengshan MineThe annual output is 40 million tonsProject, Anhui Province Hanshan Yuan Chong MineThe annual output is 15 millionton project, China Power Construction HuaduThe annual output is 11.1 million tonsProject, Phoenix Ridge, Yangxi, GuangdongThe annual output is 30 million tonsProject, Hubei Xishui Phase IIThe annual output is 20 million tonsProject, Wanning, HainanThe annual output is 5 million tonsProject, Qichun, HubeiThe annual output is 70 million tonsSand and gravel mine, Yunfu Guanyin Mountain mineThe annual output is 35 million tonsand other itemsIt is expected to start production in 2024.
Even when the market demand remains the sameThe release of a large number of new sand and gravel production capacity will also make the surplus situation worseWhat's more,At present, it is still in the situation of slowing demand, a large number of new sand and gravel lines have been put into operation, and the industry's "first war" may run through the entire 2024, in this case, the performance of sand and gravel enterprises will also be under pressure.
The competition between enterprises is more "white-hot".
It can be seen from the recent actions of the cement head enterprises that the supply side has no opportunity to sit down and talk. The competition and cooperation of "stop, stop, stop, talk" may still be in the stage of "stopping". Taking Shandong, a major cement province in the north and south, as an example, not only the distribution of small and medium-sized grinding stations is more concentrated in the region, but also the central city has many brands "competing for power". Even the major brand enterprises that have previously made it clear that they will no longer operate low-grade packaging cement have launched low-grade packaging cement "to the countryside" for sales to occupy the civil construction market.
In the past two years, sand and gravel mining enterprises with large energy storage have made frequent moves, bidding farewell to the era of fighting alone, and are about to enter the stage of strong and close alliance. The pace of collaboration and cooperation between upstream and downstream industries such as large-scale building materials, cement, engineering, and concrete is getting closer and closer. In particular, the integration trend of the traditional building materials industry chain of cement-commercial mix-aggregate is obvious, and engineering units and port terminals have gradually joined. The news of the signing of strategic cooperation agreements by large enterprises such as China Power Construction, China Building Materials, China Energy Construction, Conch Cement, China Construction West Construction, and China Railway is endless.
Sand and gravel enterprises have also moved from competition to competitionFor example, East China Materials, Zhejiang Transportation Resources Investment Group and Sufi Institute jointly developed the Ruichang project of China Building Materials New Materials; CNBM signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Minjin Group to strengthen cooperation ...... aggregatesThis allows small and medium-sized sand and gravel mining enterprisesFeel the pressure! The competition between enterprises is also more intense, and they have no choice but to further squeeze their own profit margins in order to survive.
From the cement market expectations, it can be seen that 2024 may continue the market since the second half of 2023**. Moreover, there are various signs that the first half of 2024 will not reproduce the "small spring". The senior management of Conch Cement Group has repeatedly emphasized:"Share is the foundation, profit is the goal". That is to say, first market share, then profit. This will make it difficult for many enterprises that do not have the best advantages, and even go to the situation of breaking the capital chain.
Look at the sand and gravel from the cement market! Sand and gravel aggregates continued to decline, or even fell sharply, and corporate profits could not be compared with the previous peakIn particular, the reversal of market supply and demand is becoming more and more obviousReducing investment, production costs and energy consumption control has become an important means for enterprises to increase their competitiveness. Sand and gravel enterprises (especially private enterprises) should pay attention to maintaining rationality, do a good job in cash flow management, and meet the next challenges. Editor-in-charge |Liu Chai · Audit |Zhang peng.
*: Cement people network China Sand and Gravel Association comprehensive finishing.
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