From 1953 to 2023, in just 70 years, China's auto industry has completed the development process from scratch, from existing to large, and from large to strong. Nowadays, China's automobiles have entered the post-30 million era, how to seize the development opportunities and seek greater development space?
Opportunity 1: Accelerate the penetration of new energy vehicles.
Electrification is the first half of the automotive revolution and has become a global consensus. In this wave of electrification, China's auto industry relies on its first-mover advantage, mastering core technologies such as batteries, motors and electronic controls, gradually leading the industry's discourse and rewriting the map of the global auto market.
In 2023, China's new energy vehicle brands represented by BYD will win the championship strongly, breaking the history of joint venture brands monopolizing the top sales list for many years, while joint venture fuel vehicles will fall into a vicious circle of "plus discounts-low sales-plus discounts", and the survival pressure of second- and third-tier joint venture brands will be greater.
Entering 2024, the downward trend of fuel vehicles is still obvious, and the penetration of new energy vehicles will still accelerate, driving the sales structure of new energy vehicles to gradually move towards a "spindle shape". Next, there is sufficient upside for the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the 10-200,000 ** segment, which will become the focus of competition among major car companies.
It is foreseeable that joint venture fuel vehicle companies will continue to reduce prices and ensure volume to cope with the shrinking market scale. However, having said that, the stimulating effect of sharp price cuts on sales will be marginally reduced, and it is the right way to accelerate the launch of high-quality new energy models and change channel services.
Opportunity 2: Accelerate the development of smart cars.
Intelligence is the second half of the automotive revolution and is constantly advancing. One thing to say, after achieving a great breakthrough in the penetration rate of new energy, the development of intelligence has a large space, which will endow automobiles with scientific and technological attributes and end the electrification involution with strong manufacturing attributes.
Smart electric vehicles have strong scientific and technological attributes, which have gone through the initial stage, expansion period and clearance period, and will begin to enter the growth period in 2023, with gradually mature technology and more powerful products, which will strongly promote Chinese car companies to redefine the functional innovation and intelligent experience of automobiles.
"Smart + comfortable" has become a key element of smart cars. A new generation of cockpits, high-computing power vehicle chips, urban navigation and valet parking, high-rate batteries, low wind resistance + low power consumption, electronically controlled air suspension, AR-HUD, etc., will increasingly become the key elements affecting consumers' purchase decisions.
How to develop smart cars? In addition to a few powerful car companies that can "develop their own full stack", the vast majority of car companies still choose to cooperate with cutting-edge technology companies. The installation of more brands and more models can directly reduce the cost of intelligent research and development and provide an intelligent and comfortable experience for each car series.
Opportunity 3: Strong exports pay attention to risks.
Behind the production and sales of more than 30 million units in 2023, exports of nearly 5 million units have contributed to it. This means that the domestic auto market has not yet rebounded to the highest point, and the overseas market will become an important choice for major domestic car companies to face the future.
From the perspective of car companies, Chery, SAIC, Tesla, Geely, Great Wall, BYD, Changan, SAIC-GM-Wuling, SAIC-GM, Yueda Kia, Jiangqi, and GAC Trumpchi are the main forces of exports, of which Chery has the largest export volume, and BYD's growth rate cannot be ignored.
Looking ahead to 2024, while increasing China's auto exports, it will also encounter risks and challenges in the short term, such as the European Union's anti-subsidy investigation in response to the threat of China's new energy vehicle exports. In view of this, it is an inevitable trend for Chinese car companies to build factories in overseas markets in the future.
Written at the end: With the continuous development of new energy and intelligence, the automotive industry has ushered in subversive changes. This is an opportunity for China's automobile industry, and it is also necessary to guard against arrogance and rashness, continue to cultivate technology and products, and develop domestic and international markets, in order to breed greater success and victory, and become the ultimate "big winner".