Based on the information provided, the summary of the article is summarized as follows: The Fed will issue a statement on its interest rate decision at 3 a.m. on February 1, 2024, with a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
* The market shows that the probability of a rate cut immediately after the meeting is 2, the probability of a rate cut before the end of March is 40, and the probability of a rate cut starting in May is 80. The market expects six rate cuts of 150bp each in 2024.
These factors could threaten a policy of maintaining high interest rates and trigger economic instability. The Fed currently plans to terminate the BTFP on March 11, 2024, resulting in a reduction in bank liquidity.
Residents' excess savings will be depleted by the end of March 2024, and Americans' credit card debt is expected to hit a record high of more than $1 trillion, personal interest expenses exceed $550 billion, and the average credit card interest rate is 2174%。The personal savings rate is at an all-time low.
On January 26, 2024, the RRP** reached $557.7 billion, the lowest level since June 2021, and it will be depleted by the end of March 2024, putting more pressure on US bond sales.
Economic data showed 0 GDP growth, diverging from the GDP data, suggesting that the US may be experiencing a recession, but not acknowledging it. The warning points out that the U.S. stock bubble is about to burst, and the S&P500 is facing a trend selection period.
JPMorgan Chase warns of rising concentration risks in the top 10**, similar to the peak level of the dot-com bubble, with the Gorgeous Seven Sisters accounting for 29 percent of the S&P500 index3%。
The Sino-US game is expected to bring economic costs to both sides, and 2024 is the first year for the United States, and economic data may be affected by the election. The article also observed a spike in the underlying selling pressure indicator to "panic levels".