(Continued "Jiachen Chronicle 1: Arrows on the String, Waiting for the Opportunity").
Why did Israel collapse?
Israel is extremely dependent on **, and the largest ** passage is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait-Red Sea-Suez Canal. Now that this passage has been cut off by Yemen's Houthi rebels, the US multinational escort is just a drop in the bucket: you can't trade millions of dollars of missiles for a few pairs of Houthi slippers every day. Therefore, Maersk, the world's largest freight forwarder, abandoned the Red Sea and went to the Mediterranean Sea instead.
Taking the Mediterranean Sea is the Cape of Good Hope-Atlantic-Gibraltar-Mediterranean-Israel route, the cargo time has increased by more than ten days, the voyage has increased by 40%, and the current transportation cost to Israel has increased by about 3%. In addition, the entire southern shore of the Mediterranean Sea is an Arab member state. Once the group fight situation is formed, there is no possibility of transportation.
In the end, it can only be transported by air.
The timing of Israel's collapse depends entirely on how long the United States can hold out, and it will be known in about half a year, and there is still one variable in the meantime: when Kim Jong-un will strike.
To sum up,1 The Russian-Ukrainian war has an obvious trend of expansion, and Russia is eyeing the United States, killing Ukraine and threatening Poland, Finland, and Lithuania as soon as the United States is caught in the Middle East and East Asia. The United States must intervene, otherwise NATO collapses and the United States withdraws from Europe;
2 In the Middle East, if the United States becomes the captain of the transport brigade and is trapped in the two major battlefields of Ukraine and the Korean Peninsula (which is equivalent to fighting with China and Russia at the same time), the Arab countries will group Europe and Israel, and then the country will take action, not the current level of war of the first people;
3 In East Asia, as long as the United States is mainly using its power in Israel, and is exhausted all day long to rescue Israel, or even only with the acquiescence of China and Russia, Kim Jong-un will inevitably launch a war of unification. Once again, the United States must intervene, otherwise South Korea will fall, Japan will fall, and the United States will withdraw from Asia;
Therefore, the first outbreak is likely to be on the Korean Peninsula, followed by Ukraine and the Middle East.
When the United States is exhausted, what are we waiting for if we do not take back Taiwan?
Therefore, in order to avoid a three-front war, the United States has seized the time to fan the flames in Asia and provoke the Philippines, Vietnam, and India to act against China in order to tie China down and disperse China's forces.
As a last resort, the United States will arm the island of Taiwan (which is now underway) and hold the mainland as an outcast for even a year. This is also the reason why we must resolve the Taiwan issue as soon as possible: Before the rebel son can hurt someone with a knife, we must beat him to change his ways!
During this time, all parties will still bargain, exchange interests, and will find ways to maximize their own interests. However, the core contradiction remains the same, and the development trend remains the same: the United States is destined to decline and fight on three fronts.
Of course, for China, the best outcome is that no war will happen, and the world will continue to develop in peace. With the world's No. 1 manufacturing capacity and growing influence, as long as we do not toss ourselves, it will only take a decade or less for China to surpass the influence of the United States in the world and reorganize the world economic order in the way advocated by China.
But the United States and the West are not destined to willingly give up their current position, their competitiveness is based on colonial plunder, and relying on fair competition is not our opponent at all, and they will do everything to maintain their current position. Undermine the common development of the Belt and Road Initiative, engage in economic decoupling, and promote a new Cold War. These behaviors of turning back the clock on history and going against the tide have been implemented and intensified.
Therefore, we can only persuade each other with good words and a little fist and kick; With good thoughts, he holds a steel knife in his hand.
When everything is irretrievable, you can only use thunderbolt means, Bodhisattva heart!
The battle of Longxing is nothing to do!