From January 26 to 27, 2024 local time, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China and director of the Foreign Affairs Office, held a new round of meetings with US Affairs Assistant Jake Sullivan in Bangkok. The two sides communicated on the implementation of the consensus reached at the San Francisco summit between the two heads of state and the proper handling of important and sensitive issues in China-US relations, sending an important signal to the outside world that the two countries are working hard to stabilize bilateral relations.
2024 marks the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, and the year when the United States holds its congressional elections. Judging from the recent trend of increasing high-level interaction between China and the United States, the two sides hope to seize the opportunity and do their best to add more certainty and constructiveness to China-US relations in a turbulent world.
From January 26 to 27, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China and director of the Foreign Affairs Office, held a new round of meetings with US Affairs Assistant Jake Sullivan in Bangkok. Figure ***
Together, we can implement the San Francisco Vision
China-US relations in 2023 will show the overall characteristics of "low before stable and warm after twists and turns", and its biggest highlight is the meeting between President *** and Biden at Philory Manor in San Francisco, USA in November last year. The two heads of state set out the way for China and the United States to coexist peacefully and manage differences, clarified the responsibilities of China and the United States as major countries, and formed the future-oriented "San Francisco Vision". How to implement this vision is an important topic of communication between Wang Yi and Sullivan.
The two sides agreed to advance China-US exchanges in various fields and at all levels, and make good use of the current strategic communication channels and a series of dialogue and consultation mechanisms in the fields of diplomacy, militaries, economy, finance, commerce, and climate change. Wang Yi and Sullivan have led the strategic communication channels between China and the United States, and the two have held several meetings in third places such as Vienna and Malta since 2021. This arrangement reflects the desire of the two sides to reduce excessive attention from the outside world and to have more in-depth exchanges on major issues in China-US relations.
It should be noted that the trend of Sino-US relations stabilizing in the second half of last year was not easy to come by. After the meeting between the Chinese and US heads of state in San Francisco, the relationship between the two countries has gradually warmed, but factors such as the United States in 2024 pose a great challenge to the easing process of China-US relations in the next stage, and politicians from both parties tend to show toughness on China. Biden's approval rating remains around 40, with more than half of Americans believing that Biden is too old to remain in office, and 58% of American voters believe that the economy is getting worse. Coupled with the influence of factors such as the Russia-Ukraine and Palestinian-Israeli conflicts, the pressure on the US economy will increase in 2024, and Biden's successful re-election will be a greater challenge. In this case, Biden's motivation to compromise with China could be undermined. Biden and the Democratic Party are worried about criticism of their weakness on China, which in turn will affect their election results.
In view of this, the first half of this year may be a window period for China and the United States to step up the implementation of the San Francisco Consensus between the two heads of state. Not long ago, Liu Jianchao, director of the International Liaison Department of the Communist Party of China, visited the United States and communicated with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other senior leaders. From 8 to 9 January, the 17th Sino-US Defense Department Working Meeting was held in Washington, D.C., under the co-chairmanship of leaders of the International Military Cooperation Office of the Central Military Commission and the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense of the United States. The Chinese and U.S. militaries are maintaining communication and coordination on the Maritime Military Security Consultative Mechanism meeting and other exchange projects. In the near future, the two sides will launch a working group on China-US anti-drug cooperation, and hold the first meeting of the China-US artificial intelligence dialogue mechanism this spring. It is reported that Yellen and other senior leaders in the United States are preparing for a visit to China to participate in a new round of Sino-US economic and financial dialogue.
Properly handle the Taiwan issue
During the meeting in Bangkok, Wang Yi stressed to the US side that the Taiwan issue is China's internal affair and that the election in the Taiwan region cannot change the basic fact that Taiwan is a part of China. The biggest risk to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is that "the biggest challenge to China-US relations is also the "US side must abide by the one-China principle and the three China-US joint communiqués, and will not support the "commitment to implement it into action and support China's peaceful reunification." Under the influence of factors such as the election in the Taiwan region, the game between China and the United States around the Taiwan issue in 2024 has attracted the attention of all parties.
With the implementation of "great power competition" against China by the United States in recent years, the strategy of "using Taiwan to contain China" adopted by the United States has also escalated. There is a clear gap between the so-called "one-China" policy pursued by the United States and the one-China principle. Some people in US strategic circles have advocated the "mainland's 2027 military reunification theory" in an attempt to achieve the goal of containing China by hyping up a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. A small number of US politicians have taken provocative and adventurous measures to "support Taiwan," and the US executive branch also has a certain connivance mentality, and the role of the Taiwan issue in stirring up Sino-US relations has become more and more prominent. The interaction between the "small cross-straits" between the mainland and the Taiwan region and the "big cross-straits" between China and the United States is entering a new stage of more complex and sensitive, and the severity of the Taiwan issue to all parties has markedly increased.
Under such circumstances, China and the United States need to do their best to mitigate the impact of the elections in the Taiwan region on bilateral relations and maintain the stabilizing situation brought about by the San Francisco summit between the Chinese and US leaders. In the first year, for Biden, it is in line with his political needs to avoid unexpected incidents in the Taiwan Strait, after all, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and other issues have already made him anxious. On January 10, local time, the White House Committee held a briefing on the issue of elections in the Taiwan region. The White House reiterated on condition of anonymity that the United States adheres to its long-term "one-China policy" and does not support "opposing any one-sided change of the status quo and supporting cross-strait dialogue." In addition, Rosenberg, chairman of the "American Institute in Taiwan", has recently stressed on many occasions that the United States does not support "these moves reflect Biden's efforts to ease tensions in the Taiwan Strait."
Lai Qingde, a self-proclaimed "pragmatic worker," will officially assume the leadership of the Taiwan region in May this year. How to deal with the Taiwan issue under the new situation is also a challenge for the United States. Thomas Christensen, a former senior US officer in charge of Taiwan-related affairs, and Bonnie Glaser, an important think tank expert, called on Lai Qingde to consider freezing the "party platform" and the United States should also give more "reassurances" to Chinese mainland in terms of not supporting it.
Maintain global strategic stability
At the China-US summit in San Francisco in November last year, President ** put forward the "five common" pillars on the way to get along with China-US relations, that is, China and the United States should jointly establish correct understanding, jointly and effectively manage differences, jointly promote mutually beneficial cooperation, jointly shoulder the responsibilities of major countries, and jointly promote people-to-people and cultural exchanges. At present, global security hotspots are frequent, geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, bloc confrontation has escalated, hegemonism and power politics threats are on the rise, and the international disarmament and nuclear non-proliferation system has also been impacted. At the same time, the interconnected, transnational and diverse nature of security issues has become more prominent, and traditional and non-traditional security challenges are intertwined. Against this backdrop, China and the United States need to strengthen communication, work in the same direction, and jointly shoulder their responsibilities as major countries to maintain world peace and stability.
At the meeting in Bangkok, Wang Yi and Sullivan discussed international and regional issues such as the Middle East, Ukraine, the Korean Peninsula, and the South China Sea. The ongoing Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which has caused a massive humanitarian crisis, has made the global implications of the conflict in the Middle East visible. The U.S. military strike against Yemen's Houthis threatens to trigger an escalation of tensions in the region. The waters of the Red Sea are important international cargo and energy corridors, and it is in the common interest of both China and the United States to de-escalate the situation. The United States wants China to play a greater role. However, tensions in the Red Sea are a striking manifestation of the spillover from the Gaza conflict, and it is imperative that the fighting in Gaza be quelled as soon as possible.
In addition, Biden**'s military aid to Ukraine is gradually weakening, and the resistance he faces in the United States and the hesitation of American allies are becoming more prominent. Republican lawmakers accused Biden's aid plan for Ukraine as a "waste", saying that the relevant funds should be diverted to solve the border crisis in the United States. At the same time, the new round of EU aid to Ukraine has also been slow to pass.
In addition, maintaining stability on the Korean Peninsula and the South China Sea this year will face great challenges, and China and the United States need to strengthen communication to prevent war and chaos in the Asia-Pacific region. Recently, the confrontational relationship between the DPRK and the ROK has warmed up, and the two sides have made frequent military moves, especially the United States, South Korea, and Japan have significantly stepped up military exercises in the Korean Peninsula region. People in US strategic circles are paying close attention to the warm interaction between Russia and the DPRK, and they have repeated the old tune of hoping that China will strengthen its "restraint" on the DPRK. However, the United States is still forming gangs in China's neighboring areas, encircling and suppressing China, especially provoking fires on the South China Sea issue, and taking irresponsible actions such as US-Philippine joint patrols, which have caused damage to China's security interests. This will inevitably affect the coordination between China and the United States in regional and international affairs.
In short, the meeting between Wang Yi and Sullivan in Bangkok was "candid, substantive and fruitful", which will help China and the United States accurately grasp each other's positions and concerns, reduce misunderstandings and miscalculations, and promote greater communication and coordination between the two countries in areas of common interests and explore ways of cooperation. At the same time, the risks and challenges facing China-US relations are still prominent, and the spillover impact of domestic political changes in the United States on bilateral relations deserves attention.
This year marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, and the two sides should take this opportunity to sum up their experiences and draw lessons. As Wang Yi said, the right way for China and the United States to get along should be to "treat each other as equals rather than condescendingly, seek common ground while reserving differences rather than highlighting differences, earnestly respect each other's core interests rather than undermine each other's core interests, and work together for mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation."
The author is a professor at the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University
Author: Zhao Minghao.