As the Spring Festival draws closer, the second year will soon begin, and many farmers are starting to prepare for planting. In the seemingly calm fields, there are actually undercurrents.
A strategic layout for corn planting is quietly underway. For many farmers, this period after the year is especially important. Whether it can grasp the subtle changes in the market and the guidance of policies will determine the success or failure of this year's corn planting.
Let's take a closer look! Take a look at how this corn planting layout will affect our lives.
The full name of China Grain Reserves is China Grain Reserves Management Group, which is a first-class enterprise directly supervised by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, and is responsible for maintaining national food security and the lifeline of the national economy.
The main responsibilities of grain storage are as follows:
Implement the state's macroeconomic regulation and control policy on grain and maintain the stability of the grain market. When the grain in the market is not stable enough, the grain in the market is stabilized by buying and selling the grain**. Through such means, the vital interests of the low-income stratum and the peasant strata can be well protected and their basic livelihood can be prevented from being negatively affected.
Responsible for the purchase, storage, transportation, sales and import and export of grain reserves. When the state has surplus grain, the central grain reserve is responsible for storing it, and when the country needs to use the grain, it will be taken out in time.
Not only that, but China Grain Reserve also has to find ways to keep the grain longer and better, after all, the country's food security is pinned on here.
Recently, however, China Grain Reserves has suddenly increased its bidding for grain procurement. Why does China Grain Reserve do this? And what message does it send to the outside world?
There could be several reasons for this:On the one hand, it may be due to the recent bottoming out of corn, and many unscrupulous businesses are eyeing and preparing to carry out the corn at this time.
In such a situation, the increase in bidding procurement of grain reserves may be to seize the opportunity of the relatively low market and make reserves, so that in the future, when the grain is high, the market will be adjusted.
On the other hand, it may also be to respond to the national food security strategy and strengthen the capacity of grain reserves and regulation. After all, in the No. 1 document released some time ago, the topic of national food security was repeatedly emphasized.
But judging by the current trading situation in the corn market,The overall transaction rate has decreased significantly, and most of them are at a discount. This may mean that in the current corn market, there may be many problems such as ** reduction, declining demand, lack of market confidence, quality problems and so on.
For the first two points, the first volume and demand for corn in China have always been relatively sufficient, so it is unlikely that the volume of corn market will decline because of this problem.
As for the third point, there is currently not enough evidence that market participants lack confidence in the future trend of corn**.
So the problem may arise in the fourth point, the quality of the grain. When the quality of corn in the market is generally poor and does not meet the needs or standards of buyers, it may lead to a decrease in the transaction rate. At the same time, many sellers may also have to accept lower ** in the future, resulting in many transactions being closed at a discount.
In order to protect the interests of corn planting, China Grain Reserve can only purchase a large amount of corn by itself.
Therefore, the problem becomes, if the bidding and procurement operation of China Grain Reserves is purely to ensure national food security and enhance the ability of grain regulation and control, then the pressure on corn planting will be reduced a lot after this year.
If the bidding and procurement operation of China Grain Reserves is carried out because of the quality of corn in the market, in order to protect the interests of corn planting, then after this year, the pressure on corn planting will increase a lot.
What kind of situation does it belong to now? I'm afraid no one can tell.
Recently, China Grain Reserves decided to increase the scale of domestic corn storage in 2023, and once this news was issued, it caused many people to speculate.
Under normal circumstances, the purpose of increasing the scale of grain storage in China Grain Storage is nothing more than the following:
Stabilize the grain market**. If there is a shortage of a certain kind of food in the market, it may lead to a decrease in consumers' willingness to purchase and an increase in the production cost of enterprises.
By increasing the scale of collection and storage, the grain storage can effectively increase the amount of such grain on the market, so as to achieve the purpose of stabilizing the market and maintaining market stability.
In addition, the increase in the scale of grain storage and storage will also help increase the enthusiasm of farmers to grow such grain. If the level of such food is too low, farmers may reduce the area and production of such food, which in turn will have a negative impact on the country's food security.
By increasing the scale of grain storage and storage, China Grain Reserve can provide a good sales channel and guarantee for relevant farmers, and then stimulate the enthusiasm of farmers to plant a certain grain, so as to achieve the purpose of ensuring national food security.
By increasing the scale of grain collection and storage, the central grain reserves will be able to better grasp the situation of this kind of grain in the market and make full preparations for future grain regulation and storage.
This time, China Grain Reserves suddenly announced an increase in the scale of corn reserves, which attracted the attention of many market stakeholders.
Many people feel that the purchase and sale of corn years ago is coming to an end. At this time, an announcement was suddenly issued, stating that it would increase the scale of corn reserves.
Undoubtedly, it is announced that the corn market is not very good, and it is necessary to stabilize the corn by grain reserves.
At the same time, many people feel that after the end of this year, the scale of corn reserves may continue.
Many people may have noticed that this year's Spring Festival pork** seems to be much cheaper than in previous years.
Under normal circumstances, with the arrival of the Spring Festival, many families need to buy pork for the New Year, and the market demand is relatively strong.
Therefore, it will lead to a shortage of pork in the market, push up pork**, and let pig farmers get a lot of profits.
On the eve of the Spring Festival this year, the sudden plunge in pork ** is undoubtedly bad news for many pig farmers, but it is not good news for those who grow corn.
Seeing this, many people may ask, is there anything involved between the pork market and the corn market?
In fact, the connection between the pork market and the corn market is relatively close, because corn is an important part of pig feed. If the pork market declines significantly, there will be fewer pig farmers, and the corn feed they need will also be significantly reduced.
This will make the corn market, which is already not in a good situation, even more uncomfortable. This will affect the distribution of corn after the year.
The current corn ** has come to the lowest point in nearly three years, and many market stakeholders are unanimously bearish expectations, that is, they believe that the corn market will still be sluggish in the future. This pessimistic market sentiment has undoubtedly boosted the corn market.
Many businesses that grow corn sometimes choose to sell less to keep corn**; From time to time, they choose to increase their sales and carry out panic selling, which stands out for a wavering.
In addition, the current corn planting businesses are still facing many difficulties, such as: many processing enterprises in order to pursue higher profits, choose to reduce the price of homeopathic prices to reduce procurement costs; There is also a lot of imported corn at low prices, which poses a huge challenge to it.
In addition, the current pig breeding is engaged in the so-called de-capacity, resulting in a decline in demand for corn feed.
In such a situation, it is not surprising that the market as a whole is bearish on corn**.
However, with the help of China Grain Reserves, the corn market in the coming year has become confusing.
In the coming year, although imported corn still maintains a certain advantage in terms of imports, its overall quantity is limited, and it will not have much impact on the production and sales of local corn.
In terms of pig breeding, although it will continue to be high in the coming year. But in fact, it went to high-cost breeding capacity, and its low-cost breeding capacity increased.
We can see from the feed production dataThe total output of feed in 2021 was 293.44 million tons; By 2022, the total feed production had increased to 302.33 million tons.
From January to November 2023, the total feed output reached 286.93 million tons, an increase of about 2% year-on-year.
That is to say, the yield of feed is gradually increasing, and corn is an important raw material for feed production. Therefore, the demand for corn procurement in the coming year will also increase.
As before,The profits of the entire corn market are mainly concentrated in the planting end, until the fourth quarter of this year, after the sharp decline in corn, the bulk of the profits gradually transferred to the deep processing industry, and some corn growers suffered losses.
So it will be difficult to predict whether the corn market will improve or continue to deteriorate in the coming year. Let's look forward to the arrival of the new year!
All in all, corn is an important agricultural product in China, and its fluctuation will have a profound impact on farmers and consumers.
At present, the entire corn market is not optimistic, but it has made a decisive move in terms of grain storage, which has conveyed some information to the market and made many corn growers feel much more at ease.
With the arrival of the new year, the layout of the corn market in the coming year has quietly begun, let us stay tuned!
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