Jingguantai (ID: jingguantaicn) original.
Text丨Qiu Tianyi.
Editor丨Cao Huimin.
After surviving the darkest moment, Ctrip finally won a beautiful turnaround battle in 2023.
After the recovery, the market ushered in waves of retaliatory tourism consumption boom. As a leader in the travel market, Ctrip has also taken advantage of the momentum and delivered a brilliant report card.
In the first three quarters of 2023, Ctrip's revenue was 341900 million, a year-on-year increase of 128%, has the momentum of catching up with 2019. At the same time, the sinking market of its key layout has also begun to exert force, with 2,100 new stores signed in 2023, far exceeding the 1,375 in 2019, and the number of Ctrip's travel stores has returned to the scale of 6,500.
But behind the gorgeousness, there are also hidden worries. According to internal data, while Ctrip's performance is growing, Ctrip's growth rate is declining, from 180% in the second quarter to 90%.From the perspective of the external environment, the current unusually hot market is more like a wave of retaliation, so it is impossible to last. When the heat wave recedes, how to stabilize growth and survive the boom and bust cycle of the industry is a reality that Ctrip has to face.
Ctrip's latest earnings report.
* Screenshot of the Mirror Observatory.
At the same time, the booming and attractive tourism market has also attracted competition from all sides. On the one hand, it is a content platform represented by Douyin, Kuaishou, Xiaohongshu, and Dongfang Selection, which has entered the game with huge traffic and content advantages such as short, live broadcast, and **.
On the other hand, it is a hand-to-hand fight with traditional OTA (** tourism) forces such as Ctrip, Meituan, Tongcheng, and Fliggy. Among them, Meituan is a giant of local life;Tongcheng is backed by Tencent and enjoys WeChat traffic dividends;Fliggy relied on Ali and received collaborative support from AutoNavi and Ele.me. After the encounter, Ctrip's synergistic power is weakening.
There is a volatile market outside, a competitive situation surrounded by heroes, and there is pressure on the growth rate to decline. In the face of the current hot market, how should Ctrip respond?
Hidden worries under the fire
This winter, the ice city "Harbin" in northeastern China is in a mess. With the aftermath of the Winter Olympics, it is likely to leverage China's trillion-dollar ice and snow tourism market.
According to the latest report, the number of ice and snow leisure tourists in China in the 2023-2024 ice and snow season is expected to exceed 400 million for the first time.
Not only the ice and snow market, but since 2023, the tourism industry as a whole, which has been in the dust for three years, has ushered in retaliatory growth, and consumer enthusiasm has been ignited explosively.
According to statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, the total number of domestic tourists was 36700 million, to achieve tourism income of 37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase. In the first half of this year, Ctrip's average air ticket bookings increased by more than 260%, while Ctrip's domestic hotel bookings increased by more than 60% compared to 2019 during the same period, and the overall hotel bookings in the second quarter alone increased by 160% year-on-year, reaching a record high.
With the boom of tourism, Ctrip, the big brother of the industry, ushered in a gorgeous turn after the trough
According to public data, in 2019 before the epidemic, Ctrip's revenue was 356700 million, a year-on-year increase of 152%。Since then, it has been declining, with a revenue of 183 in 2020200 million, down 486%；From 2021 to 2022, the revenue will be around 20 billion, and Ctrip will usher in the darkest moment.
Since the first quarter of 2023, Ctrip has started a "V" reversal, and its revenue has skyrocketed. Revenue in the first quarter of 2023 was 9.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 124%;The revenue in the second quarter was 11.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 180%;The revenue in the third quarter was 13.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 99%, and the annual revenue is expected to exceed that of 2019. Among them, Ctrip's two most important businesses, accommodation booking and transportation ticketing, had a balanced growth rate of 14.3 billion yuan and 13.4 billion yuan in the first three quarters, respectively.
On the one hand, there is the prosperity of tourism enterprises, and on the other hand, the joy of tourism consumers. Travel enthusiasts who are suffocated are most looking forward to a trip that is ready to go.
I want to go to Kunming, Dali, Lijiang, and swim for 5 days. Ah Yin had already made a travel plan a few days before the holiday, "I haven't gone to a farther place to play since 2020." Because friends and family don't have time together, they decided to travel by themselves this time, and they have already booked a homestay opened by Xiaohongshu bloggers, which can be regarded as a trip to go. ”
Qiqi, who loves to travel, will also go to many places in 2023, "Yunnan and Harbin are more recommended." The Northeast is really **, and when I went to Yanji, I also took a photo of Princess Yanji, which is very worth going. ”
However, when the industry exploded, various problems such as ripening and price increases also emerged
Figure: Courtesy of Koishi.
Xiao Shi was very puzzled when he saw the different ** on the two mobile phones, and said: "Why is this happening?".And once suspected that he was "killed".
When Xiaoxing and his friends swiped the information of Ctrip hotels together, they were caught off guard and were "killed". He said: "Friends have said that I was "killed pig (cooked)", and I have repeatedly confirmed that all kinds of price comparisons are finally determined to be different for different users**!
Xiao Liu also thinks that he has been "killed", and according to him, the same ticket will be cheaper on other platforms. "I booked a round-trip ticket to Guangzhou for 4,362 yuan on Ctrip, and after paying the money, I remembered to go to other platforms to compare and compare. As a result, a pig was only 4242, a difference of 120 yuan, and the difference was only a few minutes before and after the price comparison. Xiao Liu continued: "I called Ctrip, but I said that there was no way to issue the ticket, I really didn't expect that it would be ordered so many times over the years (in Ctrip), and finally the big data 'killed' on my head." ”
Since the beginning of this year, a number of ** reports have reported that compared with OTA platforms such as Fliggy and Meituan, Ctrip's air tickets and hotel bookings are always relatively more expensive, with price differences ranging from 5 to 10 yuan. It doesn't seem to be much expensive, but in terms of overall volume, it should not be underestimated.
In addition, some OTA platforms take the opportunity to "increase prices" during holidays, and they have also been repeatedly complained by consumers.
It's worth thinking about how long this revenge tourism will last?When the craze subsides, how many real and effective users will Ctrip retain?More importantly, how to take precautions to stabilize growth and survive the boom and bust cycle of the industry?
Invasion of new forces
There are many entrants in the tourism market, but content platforms such as Douyin, Kuaishou, Xiaohongshu, and Oriental Selection, with the advantages of huge traffic pool + short ** live broadcast, are the shortest but most lethal wave of force.
As the post-00s and post-90s generations have become the main force of tourism, tourism is getting younger and younger. Keywords such as "let's go on a tour" and "special forces tourism" are frequently mentioned, and independent travel has become one of the most chosen travel methods.
As an important part of formulating a travel plan, the link of "planting grass, reading reviews, and checking word of mouth" has also gathered huge traffic, and content platforms such as Xiaohongshu and Douyin have also gained huge tourism-related traffic.
Xiaolu will definitely do a good job of strategy before traveling: "Generally, look for it from Douyin and Xiaohongshu, which is worth checking in, how to take the route conveniently, and how to buy a hotel more affordable." ”
According to the "2023 Tourism Consumption Content Research Report" released by Crowley, when deciding on a travel destination, more than eighty percent of tourists will prepare a strategy before departure. In the distribution of time and energy spent on each platform, Xiaohongshu ranks first.
In order to share a piece of the tourism market, Xiaohongshu established a tourism company as early as 2022 - Puzhen Xiangli (Shanghai) Tourism Culture*** is 100% owned by Xiaohongshu Technology***.
In May 2023, Douyin also launched the calendar room function, where users can place orders and make reservations instantly, which means that Douyin has officially begun to enter the OTA track to seize the market. In June of the same year, Douyin launched the "Good Travel Festival", a big promotion IP for wine and tourism, and worked with different businesses to formulate different travel plans for consumers. Later, ByteDance also established a travel company in which it indirectly wholly owns - Chengdu Haikuo Sky Travel Agency***
Screenshot of the company.
In addition, New Oriental, which has successfully transformed into live broadcasting, also announced its entry into the cultural tourism track some time ago. In the past six months, a number of local tourism companies have been established, and self-operated cultural tourism, research travel and other products have been listed on the "New Oriental Cultural Tourism" account.
Although these cross-border platforms entered the game late, they have huge traffic disks and strong content stickiness, and have natural advantages in customer acquisition and conversion
Ding Daoshi, president of Sutu Research Institute, said: "These new platforms are not large now, but their development momentum is very strong, and there are advantages that Ctrip does not have. The biggest feature of Douyin is the algorithm, coupled with the traffic advantage and backed by capital, you can do anything with half the effortThe advantage of Xiaohongshu is that its unique grass planting model allows users to change their roles from audiences to participants. ”
For example, Ctrip established Shanghai Chengmeng Culture in 2019 to recruit travel experts and incubate KOLs.
At the same time, Ctrip is also innovating in three aspects: "AI, content, and ESG", and improving the consumer experience from the direction of AI experience, content community, and low-carbon hotel. However, it will take time to verify how effective the innovation is.
Ctrip's strategic defense
In order to deal with all kinds of new invaders, Ctrip began to break through "downward and outward", and proposed a strategic layout of "sinking" + "going out".
Focusing on the sinking market, on the one hand, it can defend against the attack of new opponents, and at the same time, it can also relieve the pressure of many large hotels to "stand on their own" and "de-OTA".
In recent years, large chain hotels have built their own channels, such as Huazhu Group, Jin Jiang, Four Seasons, Atour, etc., have begun to build their own direct channels, and build self-operated channels and member private domains by launching apps, small programs, and other ways.
Large hotel chains can establish their own channels and get rid of the constraints of OTA platforms. Through self-built channels, these hotels can not only save high commission fees, but also have better control over customer service and after-sales, and have more initiative, so as to establish direct contact with consumers and increase the possibility of repeat purchases.
In 2023, Ctrip will continue to cultivate the sinking market. According to the information provided by Ctrip, in 2023, Ctrip will sign 2,100 new stores, far exceeding the 1,375 stores in 2019, and the scale of Ctrip's travel stores has returned to 6,500.
* Visual China.
At the same time, in 2023, the proportion of orders for customized travel products registered through stores will increase by 92% year-on-year. In 2023, tourists will spend 1,426 yuan per capita on domestic tourism products in stores, an increase of nearly 40% over 2019The per capita cost of overseas products was 5,269 yuan, an increase of 16% over 2019.
Zhang Li, CEO of Ctrip's Travel Channel Division, believes that the trend of travel agency stores continuing to extend to the sinking market is very obvious, in addition to maintaining the share of first-tier and provincial capitals, a large number of them.
Residents of third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities and county-level cities also have the strength and willingness to travel.
But if you choose to sink into the market, you have to face the fight between Meituan and Tongcheng
As the earliest layout of Tongcheng Travel in the sinking market, it mainly has the advantage of cost performance, and the after-sales and user experience are average. Three years ago, Meituan also proposed to sink the market. Meituan is a platform with a large amount of traffic, and at the same time has a complete ecology of local life, which has also attracted many users, but it mainly occupies the source market with a high degree of overlap between tourist areas and Meituan's local services. In contrast, Ctrip's advantages in service experience and **chain are relatively obvious.
In addition to deeply cultivating the sinking market, Ctrip is also looking for overseas increments.
According to the "2023 China Outbound Travel Industry Development Report" released by Fastdata, Ctrip Travel occupies 54% of the market share among domestic OTA platforms7%, ranking first;Fliggy travelled to 271%；The proportion of same-trip travel is 115%。
With the gradual introduction of outbound travel policies, especially the announcement of the list of countries for multiple batches of outbound group tours, the outbound tourism market has been injected with a booster.
However, the intricate changes in the international situation and the varying degrees of recovery of the tourism market around the world will still restrict the recovery progress of the outbound travel market.
Overall, in Ctrip's strategic layout of "downward and outward" breakthrough, "downward" has been firmly implemented and can stabilize the fundamentals of the domestic marketIf the "outward" can continue to exert force, it may create a second growth curve.
The title image and some of the text with illustrations** are provided by Visual China.
Disclaimer: Under no circumstances does the information or opinions expressed in this article constitute investment advice to any person.