Economy On Thursday, S&P Global will release a quick estimate of the US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), and the market is eagerly awaiting the release of this important data. The PMI data will reflect the economic activity of the US private sector in January, and the performance of the manufacturing and services sectors may affect investors' expectations for the future direction of the economy. In the last month, the U.S. economy expanded at a modest pace, with a composite PMI of 520, manufacturing output** to 507. The service industry index is 525。Despite the improvement in the overall health of the manufacturing sector, there are still **chain issues and cost pressures that could lead to higher inflation. As the U.S. economy continues to expand, the Fed may consider raising interest rates further to control inflation risks.
The manufacturing PMI is expected to fall slightly to 50 in February5. The services index may also slow down to 520。If the data remains at 500 or above, the impact may be limited; But if it falls below the expansion line, it could reignite speculation of a rate cut and exacerbate recession fears. Market sentiment may affect the performance of risk assets and the US dollar.
Currently, EURUSD is trading at 1Around 0800, it was affected by selling pressure. The weakness of the European economy has limited the potential of the euro**, although there are some signs of recovery. Technical indicators show that the currency pair may be at risk, with support at 10770 and 10720。Investors need to pay close attention to the impact of the release of the PMI data on the market, as well as the possible monetary policy adjustments of the Federal Reserve.
As the uncertainty of the global economic situation increases, market volatility may further intensify, and investors should carefully assess risks and make asset allocation. For the future economic trend, it is necessary to consider various factors comprehensively to better grasp the investment opportunities and risks.
2.23 local Baijia Jiaxing) Jiasheng: **Slightly affected by tensions in the Middle East**, the market pays attention to Federal Reserve policy and economic data.
On Friday, the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at around $78 per barrel00 USD. The rally was influenced by the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) inventory report and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Inventories rose by 35.14 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 16, down from the previous week's increase of 12 million barrels, according to data released Thursday by the Energy Information Administration. This data was slightly lower than market expectations, which had a certain supporting effect on WTI**.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to rise in recent Israeli attacks on Allah targets in Lebanon, as well as Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea. This has raised concerns about the disruption, which in turn has a supportive effect on WTI.
However, at the same time, the Fed and other major central banks will maintain a "long-term high" interest rate policy, which may limit the scope for the WTI. According to the minutes of its January monetary policy meeting, the Fed was cautious about cutting interest rates and warned of the risk of "acting too quickly." Higher interest rates could pull the WTI lower** as it would mean less oil demand, higher costs, and a drag on economic growth.
In the future, the focus will be on Germany's fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data and the speech of Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Valel. Next week will also be followed by the release of US data on annualized gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter. These events can have a significant impact on the USD-denominated WTI**. Oil traders will use this data to look for trading opportunities at WTI** and keep an eye on market changes.