"The announcement of the Ukrainian army's entry into strategic defense does not mean that the Ukrainian army will be beaten or sit still. As the Ukrainian army moves to strategic defense, whether the Russian army will make a breakthrough on the battlefield in one go, so as to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in an overwhelming manner within this year, has also attracted attention from many parties. ”
The Ukrainian army moved to the strategic defense.
About a week after taking office, the new commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Syrsky, made a strategic adjustment.
On February 13, local time, the Ukrainian National News Agency reported that Syrsky said in an interview with a German TV station that the situation on the front line is difficult and the Armed Forces of Ukraine have shifted from offensive to defensive.
Last summer, Ukraine launched a large-scale ** against the Russian army with full confidence. In order to support Ukraine, many Western countries have almost emptied their own ammunition depots. However, reality has slapped Ukraine and Western countries in the face. During the operation, the Ukrainian army not only lost more than 100,000 people and lost a large number of tanks, armored vehicles and **, but also failed to achieve the set military objectives in key directions.
* Against the background of less than expected, Ukraine** Zelensky is determined to change the commander, and at the same time introduce new faces in the fields of drone research and development, combat technology innovation, improving the logistics support capability of the troops, and soldier training. In this regard, the Russian "Viewpoint" newspaper has long expected that "in 2024, Russia will continue to seize the operational initiative, and Ukraine will turn to strategic defense."
Cui Hongjian, a professor at the Institute of Regional and Global Governance at Beijing University of Foreign Chinese, said that the announcement of the Ukrainian military officers entering the strategic defense stage is an objective reflection of the current battlefield situation in Ukraine, and it also announced the end of the previous differences between Zelensky and the Ukrainian military on the issue of defense or defense. On the 13th, the Russian Ministry of Defense issued a war report saying that the Russian army repelled many attacks by the Ukrainian army in Donetsk, Redman, Kherson and other directions on the same day, striking targets such as ammunition depots and armored vehicles of the Ukrainian army. The Russian air defense forces also intercepted a number of "Hippocampus" rockets and a number of drones of the Ukrainian army, and the pressure on the Ukrainian army in the face of the Russian offensive has been increasing.
However, Cui Hongjian also believes that the announcement of the Ukrainian army's entry into strategic defense does not mean that the Ukrainian army will be beaten or sit still, and in some directions and parts, the Ukrainian army will maintain an offensive posture and exert certain pressure on the Russian army. On the 14th local time, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine just announced the sinking of the large landing ship "Kaiser Kunikov" of the Russian Black Sea Fleet during a military operation. Previously, the Ukrainian army has repeatedly destroyed landing ships and missile boats of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
This trend shows that the strategic defense of the Ukrainian army is actually an organized and planned defense. On the one hand, the Ukrainian army strengthened the defense of its inherent positions through defense; On the other hand, the offensive posture is still maintained against the key targets of the Russian army, and the intention of the Russian army to use landing ships to carry out landing operations in western Ukraine, especially in coastal cities such as Odessa", Cui Hongjian said.
It is difficult for new technological means to change the battlefield situation.
So, as the Ukrainian army moves to strategic defense, whether the Russian army will make a breakthrough on the battlefield in one go, so as to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in an overwhelming way within this year, has also attracted attention from many parties.
According to Reuters, the head of a research institute in Kyiv said on the 12th that Russia used the "Zircon" hypersonic missile to attack Kyiv last week, which was the first time that the Russian army used this missile in this conflict that lasted nearly two years, posing a new challenge to Ukraine's air defense system.
The evidence of the Russian side's use of "Zircon" stems from the preliminary analysis of the missile fragments attacked by the Ukrainian side, which has not yet been officially confirmed by Russia. According to open information, the Zircon hypersonic missile has a range of 1,000 kilometers and a speed nine times the speed of sound, and the Zircon sortie means that the reaction time left for the opposing air defense system is significantly reduced.
However, in Cui Hongjian's view, changes in local technical means cannot completely change the current stalemate on the battlefield. Although "Zircon" is considered a big killer and has a high penetration ability; But on the other hand, the "Zircons" hypersonic missile is also very expensive, judging from the current overall combat readiness of Russia, including its military industry and financial capabilities, it is possible to use one or two "Zircon" missiles to strike at Ukraine's core parts and key facilities, but in order to produce a long-term, sustained and comprehensive strike effect, for Russia's current capital and production capacity, it is not yet fully available.
In addition, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine also said on the 11th that the Russian army is using the "Starlink" system developed by SpaceX on a large scale near the front line of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and believes that this will weaken the main battlefield advantage of the Ukrainian army. The agency's spokesman Andrei Yusov said that the Ukrainian side intercepted the radio communications of the 83rd Russian Air Assault Brigade deployed in the Donetsk region, showing that they were using the "Starlink" terminal.
However, the news was soon refuted by SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, who said that the "Starlink" satellite service is not available in Russia, and the "Starlink" terminal has not been sold directly or indirectly to Russia. However, there are reports from Ukraine that the Russian army has already purchased the equipment in a third country and brought it to the front line. In addition, it is possible that the Russian army captured the Starlink terminal from the Ukrainian army, which allows it to access the Starlink network.
Even if Musk does provide Russia with some use of 'Starlink', it will be greatly restricted. In particular, Musk is an American entrepreneur, and the pressure exerted by the West on him will have a greater effect. And in this case, the extent to which the Russian army can safely use the 'Starlink' system is also a big question," Cui Hongjian said.
The level of Western military aid determines the direction of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
In addition, the shortage of ammunition and the sluggishness of Western military aid are also important reasons why the Ukrainian army has to shift from offensive to defensive.
On February 13, Eastern time, the U.S. Senate passed a $95 billion foreign military aid bill with 70 votes in favor and 29 votes against, which mainly involves huge military aid to Ukraine and Israel. After passing the Senate, the bill will then go to the House of Representatives for consideration. However, Johnson, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives and Republican, issued a warning on the foreign aid part of the relevant bill on the 12th, saying that he would not organize a vote in the House of Representatives on the foreign aid bill proposed by the Senate. Many House Republicans have also made it clear that they oppose further aid to Ukraine.
And at the extraordinary EU summit earlier this month, the leaders of the 27 EU countries also made a difficult decision: the EU will provide 50 billion euros in aid to Ukraine over the next four years. The aid plan was proposed as early as June last year, but was met with fierce opposition from Hungary and other countries, causing negotiations to be deadlocked.
This also shows that for a period of time, the United States and Europe have been lacking to varying degrees on the issue of military aid to Ukraine. From the perspective of the United States, with the opening of the United States, aid to Ukraine has actually become an important chess piece in the game between the Democratic and Republican parties. And Europe is also divided on the issue of aid to Ukraine, and funds are stretched. Against this backdrop, it is difficult for Europe alone to support the task of providing long-term comprehensive assistance to Ukraine.
To a certain extent, in 2024, whether Western countries can maintain military aid to Ukraine at a considerable level will become a key factor in whether the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will continue to delay or escalate in the coming period, or whether it can move towards détente and turn to a political settlement."
At the same time, Cui Hongjian said that Western countries should not only consider their own so-called "strategic interests", but should return to the position of Russia and Ukraine to look at the problem. This conflict not only does more harm than good to the people of Russia and Ukraine, but also does more harm than good to the development and stability of the United States and Europe due to the continued tension between the United States and Russia and the continued turmoil in the European region. "Therefore, instead of focusing on the issue of whether to continue military aid to Ukraine, the United States and Europe should spend more brains and energy to think about how to help all parties promote the development and change of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the direction of settlement as soon as possible."
Take a look at the news knews reporter Yang Zhen).