India is a country with strong national pride and regional hegemonic ambitions, and its military power should not be underestimated, especially in terms of air power, the Indian Air Force has one of the largest and most diverse fighter fleets in the world. However, the Indian Air Force also faces an embarrassing problem, that is, it is not equipped with any fifth-generation fighters, and India may be the only country in the world that can be called a "big country".
Of course, India is not without thinking about having a fifth-generation fighter, in fact, India has been trying to obtain this advanced **, whether it is independent research and development, or cooperation with foreign countries, or direct imports, India has not given up. However, due to various reasons, India's fifth-generation fighter program has not made substantial progress, while at the same time, India's neighbors and competitors, such as China, Pakistan, Russia, etc., have begun to deploy or export fifth-generation fighters, which undoubtedly makes India feel great pressure and crisis.
Recently, Russia unveiled a new light fifth-generation fighter at the air show, codenamed Su-75, this fighter is considered to be specially designed by Russia in order to enter the international market, although its performance is not as good as the Su-57, but it is quite cheap, only about 20 million US dollars, which makes many countries interested in it, including India. Russia has extended an invitation to India to join in the joint development and production of the Su-75, which undoubtedly provides India with a new option.
So, will India accept Russia's invitation to procure or participate in the Su-75 project? In my opinion, this possibility is very high, and I even think that the Su-75 is likely to become the first official "fifth-generation fighter" of the Indian Air Force. Why? I'm going to break it down.
First of all, we need to know that India currently has four ways to obtain fifth-generation fighters, namely the self-developed AMCA project, the FGFA project in cooperation with Russia, the F-35 project imported from the United States, and the Su-57 or Su-75 project imported from Russia. Let's take a look at the feasibility and advantages and disadvantages of each of these four pathways.
The first way is the self-developed AMCA project, which is the most ideal choice for the Indian Air Force, because it allows India to master the core technology of the fifth-generation fighter, improve the country's independent innovation capability and national defense strength, and also avoid being subject to foreign political and economic pressure. However, the progress of this project has been very slow and difficult, more than a decade has passed since its launch in 2010, but AMCA has not yet built a prototype, let alone a test flight and mass production. According to the latest news, AMCA is still waiting for the approval of **, if all goes well, the prototype may not be manufactured until 2024, the first flight will not be until 2026, and mass production will not be until 2030, and these times are the most optimistic estimates, in fact, it may be longer. Moreover, the technical level of the AMCA does not necessarily meet the standards of the fifth-generation fighter, and it may be, like the "Brilliant", which is outdated by the time it enters service. So, in my opinion, it is unlikely that the AMCA project will become the first fifth-generation aircraft of the Indian Air Force, at least not in the short term.
The second way is the FGFA project in cooperation with Russia, which is the earliest choice of the Indian Air Force, because India and Russia have a deep military cooperative relationship, most of the fighters of the Indian Air Force are made in Russia, and India is also very interested in the Russian Su-57 fighter, and has invested huge amounts of money and manpower to participate in the research and development of the Su-57, hoping to get a customized version of the Su-57 that suits their needs, that is, the FGFA. However, this project also encountered a lot of problems, mainly Russia's reluctance to share the core technology of the Su-57, such as the source **, engine, radar, etc., and asked India to pay a high fee, India was very dissatisfied, and finally withdrew from the cooperation in 2018, announcing that it would not purchase the Su-57. Despite this, Russia still did not give up selling the Su-57 to India, and even expressed its willingness to provide India with more technology transfer, but India seems to have lost interest in the Su-57, and the Su-57's ** is also very high, about 100 million US dollars, India may not feel that it is worth it. So, in my opinion, the Su-57 project is also unlikely to become the first fifth-generation aircraft of the Indian Air Force, unless Russia significantly reduces ** and conditions, or India changes its mind.
The third way is the F-35 project imported from the United States, which is the most realistic choice for the Indian Air Force, because the F-35 is currently the only fifth-generation fighter in the world that has been mass-produced and exported, and its performance and technology are recognized as leading, and the United States is also an important strategic partner of India, India may want to strengthen its relationship with the United States by purchasing the F-35, and also enhance its air superiority. However, there are also many obstacles to this project, mainly because the United States has many restrictions and conditions on the export of F-35, such as not allowing buyers to use Russia's ** system, not allowing buyers to modify the software and hardware of F-35 on their own, and not allowing buyers to use F-35 against US allies, such as Pakistan, and so on. These restrictions and conditions are difficult for India to accept, because India has a large amount of Russian equipment, and India's main enemy is Pakistan, and it is impossible for India to give up its strategic interests and autonomy for the sake of the F-35. Moreover, the ** of the F-35 is not cheap, about 80 million dollars, and India may not think it is cost-effective. So, I don't think it's likely that the F-35 program will be the first fifth-generation aircraft for the Indian Air Force, unless the U.S. significantly eases restrictions and conditions, or India compromises.
The fourth way is the Su-57 or Su-75 project imported from Russia, which is the latest choice of the Indian Air Force, because Russia has just launched a light fifth-generation fighter, the Su-75, this fighter is considered to be specially developed by Russia in order to attract international customers, although its performance is not as good as the Su-57, but it is quite cheap, only about 20 million US dollars, which makes many countries interested in it, including India. Russia has extended an invitation to India to join in the joint development and production of the Su-75, which undoubtedly provides India with a new opportunity. So, will India accept Russia's invitation to procure or participate in the Su-75 project? In my opinion, this possibility is very high, and I even think that the Su-75 is likely to become the first official "fifth-generation fighter" of the Indian Air Force. Why? There are several reasons for this:
First of all, the technology of the Su-75 is similar to that of the Su-57, India is more familiar with and trusts it, and India also has a certain technical base and can better cooperate with Russia, unlike the F-35, which is completely dependent on technical support from the United States;
Second, the Su-75 is very cheap, only about 20 million dollars, which is very attractive for India, because India can get a large number of fighters with less money, unlike the Su-57 or F-35, which are high and limited in number;
Thirdly, the Su-75 has a high production capacity, and Russia says that it can quickly produce and deliver it according to the needs of customers, which is important for India, because India needs to replenish and update its air power in a short time, unlike AMCA, which needs to wait a long time for mass production;
Fourth, although the Su-75 is not a real fifth-generation fighter, it also has certain stealth capabilities and supersonic cruise capabilities, which can form a clear advantage over the fourth-generation aircraft, and it is also a symbol that allows India to join the fifth-generation aircraft club as soon as possible and enhance its international status and prestige.
To sum up, I think that the Su-75 is the most likely first fifth-generation aircraft of the Indian Air Force, it is very cost-effective and adaptable, and Russia is also very sincere and motivated to cooperate with India, and India has no clear signs of refusal, as long as the two sides can reach an agreement, the Su-75 has a great chance to become a new member of the Indian Air Force. Of course, this is not an easy thing, there are still many problems to be solved between India and Russia, such as technology transfer, after-sales service, opposition in India, etc., but compared to other ways, the difficulty of the Su-75 is the least, I hope India can make a wise choice and don't miss the opportunity again.