On February 6, **Huijin and the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued statements one after another: **Huijin said that it has recently expanded the scope of exchange-traded open-ended index (ETF) holdings, and will continue to increase its holdings and expand the scale of its holdings; The China Securities Regulatory Commission said that it will continue to coordinate and guide various institutional investors such as public offerings, private placements, companies, social security, insurance institutions, and annuities to enter the market more vigorously.
As the "weather vane" of market funds and an important supplier of long-term funds, insurance funds are also expected to accelerate the pace of entering the market and become a "booster" for stabilizing the market. "Huijin's increase in ETF holdings is expected to form a certain support for the index, and we are also actively participating in this wave of equity investment in the past two days, and the person in charge of equity investment of a large insurance asset management institution told a reporter from Shanghai **.
When it comes to the direction of major equity allocation, the high dividend strategy is still the "ballast stone" for the equity allocation of insurance funds. The person in charge of equity investment said that with the downward breakthrough of long-term bond yields, the high-dividend strategy will benefit from the downward trend of the risk-free rate in the medium term, and the strong liquidity of blue chips relative to small and medium-cap stocks is expected to continue, and the follow-up will focus on the reform targets of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises.
According to the estimation of Guotai Junan's non-bank financial research team, it is estimated that the scale of equity asset allocation in the insurance industry will be about 3 in 202488 trillion yuan, of which the scale of new funds is about 344.6 billion yuan, mainly contributed by the increase in the scale of investment assets, while the proportion of equity assets in the overall asset allocation is expected to remain stable, accounting for about 128%。
If only the impact of the switch of accounting standards is considered, the incremental allocation scale of high-dividend assets of insurance funds in 2024, 2025 and 2026 will be 189.1 billion yuan, 224 billion yuan and 263.3 billion yuan respectively. Guotai Junan's non-bank financial research team said.
At present, the valuation of the A** market is at a low level, which has become the consensus of insurance institutions. Taikang Asset believes that the current A** field is at the bottom of the valuation, earnings are expected to rise, and the overall performance of the follow-up is positive. In the first three quarters of 2023, the profit growth rate of the A** field was lower than expected, and it is expected to rebound in 2024, which will affect the neutral and positive. Judging from the difference between the expected returns of stocks and bonds, the market has been undervalued after nearly two years.
In a low valuation environment, some sectors and ** have already seen over-falling opportunities. The head of equity investment of an insurance institution in Shanghai said that TMT is a short-term serious over-falling direction, but when to intervene to better obtain potential "high odds" opportunities also needs to be premised on the improvement of the chip structure of the market and sector.
Judging from the research situation since the beginning of this year, pharmaceutical, TMT and other over-falling sectors and ** have attracted the attention of insurance funds. Since 2024, listed companies such as Zhongji Innolight, Changchun High-tech, Xiechuang Data, Jiangsu Wuzhong, and New Industry have received the most insurance capital surveys, and all of them have been surveyed by more than 10 insurance institutions.
Taikang Asset Management is also optimistic about investment opportunities in the over-falling sector: "Pan-technology and medicine are the most active areas of innovation, and the business cycle will be upward in 2024, so it is easy to build consensus." Short-term trading is crowded, but from a full-year perspective, it can still participate flexibly according to the market style. ”