List of high-quality authors Someone asked: The losses of the ** in "Flowers" went bankrupt, jumped off the building, and jumped into the sea did not end well, what mistakes did they make? These people all make a common mistake – borrowing money**. Borrowing money or increasing leverage makes their way of borrowing money very fragile and they can only make money, not lose money. Once you lose money, you will blow up, leading to a tragic ending.
This is true not only for us as individual investors, but also for institutions and socio-economically. For example, some of the problems that have arisen in China's real estate industry in recent years are, in the final analysis, that the enterprises themselves do not have so much of their own funds, and they increase leverage everywhere, and finally the collapse caused by the rupture of funds.
The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in the past few years was essentially a "leverage crisis." It can be said that "leverage" is the biggest risk in finance, and there is no one. Before the holiday, some shareholders fell before dawn, and their funds were liquidated because of leverage.
My latest investment perception in the past two years is "even if you are at the bottom, don't increase leverage." The risk of leverage is everywhere, don't think that you can raise a large proportion of financing at will. ”
I am bullish and long-term in the current a** field. But I never leverage. At present, as long as we do not increase leverage and hold excellent companies and promising industries, we can easily overcome all the best fluctuations and finally usher in rich investment returns.
Some fans and friends asked: "Mr. Meng, which direction has a better chance this year?" ”
I replied, "I don't know." There is no ability to hotspot in the short to medium term. ”
Fans said: "Teachers are long-term thinkers. ”
I replied, "I really don't have the ability." Those who have this power are gods, not men.
Many fans and friends read stock reviews, and listened to some institutional researchers or brokerage analysts say that there will be any hot spots in the market this year, what direction is most likely to be **, and so on. I'll tell my fans and friends the truth - it's all clichés, and they're all dialogue routines that they and the host have agreed on in advance.
You have to say something in an interview, right? At least say a few words that you want to hear, right? You can't just ask three questions, right? After all, a show is a show, and the essence is just to perform for the audience and listeners. Don't take anything in a financial show too seriously. If these experts really knew that there would definitely be some hot spots this year, they would have resigned a long time ago and gone home with 100 times leveraged studs. What are you grinding your teeth with the host here?
Financial programs are just to cater to the psychology of small and medium-sized ** and talk about some topics they care about. No one in this world knows how to go tomorrow. What you have is just speculation! However, in general, most of the financial people who can be invited as guests on the show already belong to the elite of the industry. They are not on par with the average financial professional, at least in terms of eloquence.
Investing is simple, it's just hard to get it right. Why do many people fail to do very simple things? Simple things are mostly boring, boring, and take a long time to pay off. This is true of many things in the world, such as practicing calligraphy, fitness, etc. This kind of reward is very slow, and the process is very monotonous and tedious, which is very inhuman, and many people cannot stick to it.
Two days ago, a fan friend asked me: "Mr. Meng, now that the floating loss is more than 60 percentage points, will you be able to return to your capital by buying bank stocks in the next few years?" ”
Immediately stopped me in questioning. Because he is asking me: "How can bank stocks be ** in the next few years?"
Two, three? "Because only bank stocks for the next few years**.
Two or three times before he can return to his capital. How could I possibly know this?! If I had the ability, I would have lived on the moon a long time ago. Because the earth can't hold me anymore.
*Not only does it take a long time to make a lot of money investing, but the process is fraught with uncertainty. It is manifested in the uncertainty of the time taken to achieve the return on investment, and the uncertainty of the size of the return. That is, it may take more than a decade for bank stocks to make you pay back, or maybe.
Two or three years will make you return to your capital, which is something that cannot be known in advance. It's completely different from how we get paid when we go to work. And how much money we'll make in the end, we don't know now.
**The market's returns come from two main sources:
One is the return on corporate profits. The future performance of most companies is difficult**, and this return is difficult to calculate. The other is the return from volatility. The **increase brought by the concept, theme hype, bull market**, etc., this return is even more impossible**.
Therefore, investing is actually a thing that requires a long wait, and the size of the return is not certain. What I usually say about "double in five years" or "double in ten years" is just a theoretical extrapolation based on historical data.
When Warren Buffett **BYD, he didn't know how much money BYD could make him in the future, let alone when he would make money. All he knew was that it was an investment with relatively little risk and potentially high returns. BYD's production and operation were in trouble for a while, and Buffett even had the possibility of losing money. Just like this, I don't know when there will be a return, and I may even lose money, Buffett took 13 years to start selling. This is the difference between a stock god and an ordinary person.
I have a friend who wants to open an account**, and before opening an account, he asked me: "How many years can I double my income by buying **?" I hesitated for a long time and said, "At least."
Three or five years. After listening to my words, he immediately dispelled the idea of opening an account.
There are many important things in this world, which are actually very simple, but they are all difficult to do well. For example, it's easy to get married, but how can you get married if you don't love each other? It stands to reason that the divorce rate should be extremely low, right? But data shows that the divorce rate is close to 50% in recent years!
This indicates that people who are currently in love and married have about half the probability of getting divorced in the future. That is, our seemingly very deliberate choice to get married, the final result is as random as a coin toss! This is the condition of "long-term love" that makes it impossible for many people to hold on.
I think that people who do simple things well for a long time are no longer ordinary people. For example, running is easy, right? You can do it with legs, but how many people can keep running for ten years? Investing is simple, but it's doomed to failure for most people. It's not the ** that makes us fail, it's our innate humanity. **Investments are held for too long and the size and timing of returns are uncertain. It does not conform to the idea that ordinary people want to take shortcuts, make quick money, and achieve expected stable returns.