Tongrun Equipment's performance forecast for 2023 shows that the company's annual net profit will be 052 to 07.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of between 48% and 65%. Specific to the fourth quarter, the company expects net profit to be 01 to 0300 million yuan, about 0200 million yuan, down 12% compared with the same period last year, but up 8% month-on-month. If the impact of the amortization of the appreciation of consolidated assets is not considered, in 2023, the performance of CHINT Power, the main body of the optical storage business, will be in line with expectations, contributing a profit of about 100 million yuan; At the same time, the traditional sheet metal business also played steadily, contributing more than 0600 million yuan.
It is worth noting that the ground power station business in the U.S. market has begun to show a significant upward trend. In 2023, Tongrun Equipment's shipments in the industrial, commercial and community photovoltaic fields will maintain stable growth, reaching 15GW, while the shipment of ground power stations exceeded the 200MW mark for the first time. At present, the company has held an order scale of 15-2GW, and plans to deliver dozens of MW of ground power station projects in the first half of 2024. For 2024, the company has set a full-year ground-mounted power station shipment target of 2GW, and the gross profit margin is expected to remain above 45%. Among them, the company accounts for about 10% of the market share of ground power stations in the United States in terms of large string technology, and the potential development space is huge.
In terms of the European market, Tongrun Equipment also performed well, not only was not affected by the burden, but also made an important breakthrough in the ground power station market. In 2024, the company plans to ship 2GW of ground-mounted power stations and large-scale industrial and commercial projects in Europe, and in 2023, it has already achieved initial results in Poland, Turkey, Spain and other places. Relying on the Group's integrated advantages in the development of overseas power plants, this goal is expected to be successfully achieved. In addition, in the field of small-scale industrial and commercial and residential photovoltaics, the company has also set a shipment target of 300+ MW in 2024.
In the Japanese market, Tongrun Equipment actively lays out the energy storage market by virtue of the unique advantages of integrated layout. At present, although the company's industrial and commercial energy storage systems in Japan are shipped in small volumes, they are testing large-scale energy storage systems based on the resources developed by Chint Group in Japanese power plants. Thanks to the introduction of a new law to promote grid-side energy storage in September 2023, the company is expected to receive GWh-level energy storage orders in this context, and this part of the business is expected to start generating profit contribution in 2025 or 2026.
At the same time, the company's traditional business toolbox cabinets, electromechanical sheet metal products and other products are mainly exported to the U.S. market, which is affected by the U.S. interest rate hike policy in 2023. However, with the change of the economic environment, it is expected that the business will gradually recover in 2024 and continue to provide the company with a stable profit contribution of tens of millions of dollars.
Based on the above information, it is expected that Tongrun Equipment will achieve a profit of about 300 million yuan in 2024, of which the US market is expected to contribute 15-200 million yuan profit. In view of the expectation of interest rate cuts in the U.S. market and the improvement of the transformer** situation, the energy storage demand has a high degree of certainty, so it is optimistic that Tongrun Equipment, as the most flexible optical storage industry leader in the U.S. market, will continue to benefit in the future development.
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