In 2024, it did not usher in a good start, but ushered in a good start to the bond market.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has risen from 2 in just a few days56% to 249%, bonds also extended the bull market since the end of last year.
Why is there a debt cow**?
The agency summarized the following reasons:
1) weak economic recovery;
2) monetary easing expectations;
On December 20 last year, although the LPR interest rate was not lowered, the next day (December 21), major state-owned banks such as the Ministry of Industry and Agriculture, China and the Construction of Diplomatic Relations lowered the deposit interest rate, and many people believed that this was in preparation for the reduction of the LPR interest rate in January this year.
There are already institutions shouting to cut the RRR and interest rates.
3) Loose capital at the beginning of the year;
4) ** The black start has suppressed the market risk appetite, and the willingness of funds to allocate bonds has increased, increasing the demand for bonds.
As a result, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has fallen below 25%, touching the low level of the past few years, but brokerages are still optimistic, believing that interest rates will go lower again and the bond bull market will continue.
CICC even gave a point, believing that the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds would fall to 2 by the end of the first quarter4%。
Of course, the above is just the opinion of the institution, which helps us understand the market and think twice before guiding the operation.
Looking back on history**, every reversal of the bottom area will trigger a "debt disaster", and those who are still heavily positioned in the debt base may wish to pay more attention
I have screened the bond ** manager many times before, but I haven't talked about it in detail, and today I will introduce a few:
Let's look at the veterans first, ** the manager was appointed before 2015;
*It is a pure debt**, and does not hold **, convertible debt.
After excluding the poor returns, and the scale is too small, there are still a few left:
ps: Malone will hold a lost convertible bond, but ** is very low and very famous, so he will put it in **).
(1) Yan Peixian
Although the fame has not spread, if you look at the data, Yan Peixian is the best performer among the veterans.
High yieldsSince 2015, China-Canada pure bonds have risen by 709%, annualized 611%, which is the first among several veterans.
The karma ratio is also high, the maximum drawdown of China-Canada pure debt is 285%, Karma ratio = annualized return and maximum drawdown, calculated to be 214, also ranked first among several veterans.
Institutional Identity.
In previous years, institutional ownership has been around 90%.
After making a name for itself in 2023, it has attracted a large number of capital subscriptions, and the share held by institutions has increased from 687.4 billion copies, up to 906.3 billion copies; ** Holding shares from 7400 million copies increased to 302.4 billion, and the scale of China-Canada pure bonds has also swelled to 13.2 billion.
What is rare is that Yan Peixian resisted the sudden outbreak of scale.
In 2023, China-Canada pure bonds will rise by 571%, the top 7% of the same category, the ranking is not much different from previous years.
**The company is not a hard injury.
Backed by the Bank of Beijing, fixed income is a strength, and of the 129.8 billion assets under management, 116.5 billion are bonds, accounting for 90%.
Looking at the ranking, the scale of bonds in China and Canada ranks 26th, and it is a company between the neck and the waist in terms of fixed income.
Yan Peixian also has a wealth of professional experience.
After graduating from Imperial College London with a master's degree in finance and a master's degree in computer science from the University of Birmingham, he worked as a software engineer at British National Airlines, and worked as a bond trader in the capital trading department of Ping An Bank and the capital trading department of Beijing Bank from 2008 to 2013.
He joined China Canada in 2013 and is now the Assistant General Manager and Director of Fixed Income.
Investment strategy,
Yan Peixian introduced it in the third quarterly report:
1) On the premise of screening credit risk, medium and high-grade credit bonds with relatively high duration and appropriate coupon are to do a certain degree of credit sinking.
2) Actively grasp the trading opportunities, use interest rate bonds to participate in the market game, and earn a wave of capital gains.
Specifically,1) Yan Peixian will use leverage ** to choose the time.
The blue line is the bond of China-Canada pure bonds**, and the red line is the yield of the 10-year treasury bond.
*The contract stipulates that the leverage ratio of the bond base does not exceed 140%, so the bonds** of China-Canada pure bonds basically fluctuate between 100% and 140%.
At the top of the treasury bond yield several times, Yan Peixian was on a large leverage, and then as the bond yield fell, the bond market went bullish, reducing leverage all the way, and when it reached the bottom, it just fell to around 100%, and the timing ability is quite strong.
Interestingly, in an interview with China ** Daily in 2020,Yan Peixian said that most of the excess returns of the products he manages come from capital gains, that is, through leverage and trading.
2) Credit sinking
In 2019, Yan Peixian was equipped with more urban investment bonds and private enterprise bonds, and now he is mainly financial bonds, which are not too sinking.
(2) He Xiuhong
He Xiuhong graduated from Sun Yat-sen University, worked as a bond researcher at GF**, joined ICBC Credit Suisse in 2009, and is currently the deputy general manager of the fixed income department.
The "ICBC Credit Pure Debt for One Year" she manages is a fixed opening bond with a leverage ratio of up to 200%.
Therefore, we see that the leverage of this ** is higher than that of China and Canada pure bonds, exceeding 160% at the highest.
Looking at the changes, He Xiuhong will also make some timing, increase leverage when the interest rate of treasury bonds is high, and then reduce leverage after the interest rate falls.
Investment strategy,
He Xiuhong focuses on stability, pursues risk-adjusted returns, and attaches importance to drawdowns.
In the rigid exchange environment before 2014, the income was mainly due to credit sinking, but after that, it was more concerned about the safety of assets.
In the third quarterly report, she said:
It is mainly allocated to high-grade credit bonds and subordinated bonds of large commercial banks, and the credit risk of these assets is controllable."
Specifically, the top five heavy bonds mainly bought the subordinated bonds of the Bank of Communications and the Agricultural Bank of China, as well as the bonds of the two central enterprises, China Power Investment and China Metallurgical Corporation.
(3) Hu Jian
In July 2006, Hu Jian joined E Fund, and worked his way up from a bond researcher to a manager, head of the fixed income research department, and general manager of the fixed income department.
In terms of investment strategy, Hu Jian is also relatively stable.
The position is dominated by high-grade credit bonds, and there is not too much credit sinking. Maintain neutral leverage and use duration and leverage moderately to enhance returns.
Looking at the data, E Fund's credit bonds are heavily positioned in the subordinated bonds of Bank of Shanghai, Industrial Bank, Bank of China, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and a CDB bond is also heavily positioned.
In terms of leverage, Hu Jian did not put it too high, and the bonds of ** were between 100% and 120% most of the time, which was slightly lower than the leverage ratio of Yan Peixian and He Xiuhong.
However, in 2023, he made a big move, and the leverage ratio suddenly rose to 134%, seizing this wave of debt bulls**, looking at the income of the past month, it is Hu Jian who is the highest.
E Fund's credit bonds rose by 11%, ICBC credit pure debt rose 099%, China-Canada pure debt rose 093%。
*Disclaimer: The content of the article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.