Everyone can feel the economic situation in the past few years. From the beginning of the epidemic to the present, the economy has been sluggish, and at the beginning, people did not take it seriously, thinking that it would soon pass. But now, after a long time, they can't hold on, and everyone has obviously begun to cut back on food and clothing. The bottom group is worried about losing their jobs, the middle class is worried about the mortgage default, and the wealthy class is worried about the shrinkage of assets. Factories and enterprises are in difficulty, stores are difficult, the Internet is laying off employees, and real estate, education and training, and tourism have fallen. Household incomes have fallen, either unemployed or wages have been cut, and purchasing power has shrunk, but spending has not fallen at all. The poor cannot afford to consume, and the middle class is unwilling to consume. Don't dare to spend money, consumption is sluggish. The good ones can barely get by. It's not good, the mortgage is broken, and there is no way to live. A mood of anxiety and panic is creeping in. Both individuals and private enterprises are struggling to survive. Everyone's life is getting harder and harder.
The Great Depression has occurred repeatedly in history, with small economic cycles basically occurring once every ten years or so, and the most recent major crisis to us was in 1929, when an economic crisis caused by the financial crisis swept the world, and we can learn some valuable lessons from that Great Depression. The situation in the United States at that time was that the unemployment rate was as high as 25%, the bottom group completely lost their spending power, the middle class did not dare to consume, and the assets of the wealthy class were seriously reduced. After people's income decreases, they will try their best to control expenditure, social consumption decreases, and after consumption decreases, most enterprises become more profitable, and enterprises lay off a large number of employees to reduce costs. People's incomes will be further reduced, consumer confidence will be severely fatally hit, debt will become extremely dangerous, incomes will be reduced, and everyone will have to save money, which is a vicious circle. Under the Great Depression, the economy entered a terrible state of spiral contraction and decline, and the number of unemployed people soared, and even those who were not unemployed were barely able to survive. During the boom era, a large number of people flocked to cities in search of wealth opportunities. The Great Depression was the opposite, with the population moving backwards from the cities to the countryside. In 1930-1933, it was difficult to survive in the cities, and the population of the United States shifted from the cities to the countryside, because of the difficulty of employment, so young people who could not find jobs had to leave the big cities and take refuge in the countryside, after all, they could grow their own food in the countryside, and they could find more ways to feed themselves. The negative emotions caused by the economic downturn, Wall Street** collapsed across the board, not only ** fluctuations, but also joys, sorrows, and sorrows. Whether it is the middle class, the proletariat or the entrepreneur, they are all swayed by emotions. The whole society fell into a dead silence, and people felt hopeless in their disappointment. This can manifest itself in dissatisfaction with policies, crowd contradictions, and fear and anxiety about unknown crises.
The economic crisis of the past and the Great Depression have left a warning and an indelible shadow for future generations. Now, under the influence of the global political and economic environment and various factors such as the epidemic and war, the economic situation is very similar to that of 1929, and it is getting closer and closer to the Great Depression. Shortly after the beginning of this year, the Russian-Ukrainian war began. Russia and Ukraine are both important in the global ** chain, such as grain, oil, gas ......At present, the operation of the industrial chain is seriously blocked, the world as a whole continues to be sluggish, and various countries have introduced tens of billions of dollars in economic rescue measures. ** and food, these two ** have skyrocketed, which will bring hyperinflation. Oil is the mother of bulk commodities, the blood of modern industrial society, and the raw material of many products. As soon as oil rises, the downstream industry products associated with it will have to be transported, such as vegetables, meat, fruits, etc. Inflation is inevitable in all countries.
In the framework of the world economy, China can be said to play the role of "global ** chain center", and it is unrealistic to stand alone. Whether the economy is good or not, ordinary people can often best understand it. In many cases, the changes in data are not as real as the changes in daily life. Some people say that whether the macro environment is good or not depends on where young people go. In a high-growth environment, young people will give preference to **? All kinds of start-up companies, private enterprises, emerging industries such as technology and the Internet, and even start their own business. Because there are opportunities everywhere, and there are stories of wealth creation everywhere. Will young people choose the economic downturn? Public, postgraduate and career examinations are ......The increment is not there, and the opportunities are getting fewer and fewer. Let's take a look at it, in 2022, China's fresh graduates will exceed 10.76 million. Tens of millions of graduates have gone to **? The number of postgraduate students exceeded 4.57 million, and the number of public examinations reached a record high. More than 10 million college graduates, nearly 3 million are admitted to the public examination, more than 4 million are admitted to graduate school, and 3 million are ...... teaching examination. Some experts have given this phenomenon a nice name "slow employment", and have prepared a set of words to explain slow employment: college students are "not in a hurry to find a job" after graduation, and "temporary" choose to take the postgraduate examination, the public examination, the teaching examination, and ......accompany their parents at home. China's "language arts" are so strong, and it is so fresh and refined to say that they can't find a job, are forced to be unemployed, and have no choice but to gnaw at the old. The most immediate consequence of the Great Depression was widespread unemployment, where jobs became scarce, and unemployment could come no matter how educated or capable you were. Not just a single member, but probably an entire family loses their job. The Great Depression also brought inflation. Pork is an important weight in the CPI composition, and it has been ** for several months, and pork is almost unaffordable (the "pig cycle" has entered an upward period and will continue until next year, but don't worry too much, because the "second brother" is related to the people's livelihood, and the things related to the people's livelihood must believe in the country). As soon as the price of pork rises, chicken and other poultry meat related to it, eggs will also**, which will inevitably drive CPI**. While incomes are falling, inflation is coming. The CPI in the future will not be too moderate (now that everyone goes out to buy something, they can feel inflation by feeling).
The period from 1991 to 2011 was the "first 20 years" of China's rapid economic growth. From 1992 to 1995, China's GDP grew by double digits for four consecutive years, and in 2001, China formally joined the World Trade Organization (WTO), enabling China to fully enjoy the double dividends of globalization and geopolitics, and from 2003 to 2007, China achieved double-digit real GDP growth for five consecutive years, setting a record for the longest consecutive double-digit growth. In 2008 and 2009, although it was hit by the international financial crisis, the growth rate was still higher than 9%, and China's economic growth rate reached 10 in 20106%。In 2011, China's real economic growth rate was 96%, after which China said goodbye to double-digit GDP growth. China's economic growth rate is gradually reaching the first level. From 2012 to 2020, China's arithmetic average real growth rate was 57%, China's economy has entered a relatively long downward cycle, with an annual GDP growth rate of 224% (the lowest point in more than 40 years since the reform and opening up in 1978).
In the "first 20 years" of rapid economic growth, every industry is growing, first the dividends of the township enterprise system, then the import and export of foreign trade enterprises, the surging tide of real estate, and then into the Internet. At present, the vast majority of large enterprises in China are starting their businesses in the first 20 years, or starting a business at an early stage but enjoying the dividends of the past 20 years. Everyone seems to be good in the times, the salary rises slightly every year, and it is not difficult to change jobs, as long as you are not too stupid, you can get promoted if you work hard. This kind of opportunity dividend happens to be encountered by people, and thus forms a whole set of cognitions for us, which is also a kind of "survivorship bias". This perception is that these growth seems to continue to grow, but the economy has cycles, and there is no permanent high growth.
What should we do when the economy is in a downturn and into a depression? There are three main categories of economic activities: residents, enterprises, and ** Under the Great Depression, all parties are making countermeasures and preparations for future development. Why is the primary goal in 2022 to "stabilize growth and maintain employment", and everything must make way for "stable growth and employment". At present, the social unemployment rate is more than 20%, not including the "200 million flexibly employed". If so many young people have nothing to do, the risk of social instability will be extremely high, and this is not just an economic matter. Stability is the foundation of everything, so the primary goal for this year is to "stabilize growth and maintain employment". On this basis, the three-board axe to stimulate economic growth (release water, release real estate, and put infrastructure) must of course be used, and ** has begun to increase investment in all aspects, and the central mother has begun to release water and pour water in. With liquidity, the total increment is increased. ** The economic meeting mentioned: "to ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure, speed up the progress of expenditure" means to spend money on infrastructure investment, new infrastructure, and major projects in advance. The infrastructure of state-owned enterprises has all come up all at once, and they do not pay attention to costs. To a certain extent, the real estate will be relaxed, and the resumption of work and production in various places will be promoted in an orderly manner. Only after the resumption of work and production can the economy pick up. Therefore, this year is a "big year of easing, a big year of finance, and a big year of infrastructure". * I have done a lot of things that I will not expand on here.
Everything has a cycle, and a crisis is an organic crisis. Behind crises lies opportunities. The Great Depression was a major reshuffle and an economic shift. Visionaries are preparing for everything. Because when the depression period is over, there will be an outlet for development, and there will be a new logic of business and wealth. Nowadays, many companies are laying off employees, but you will find that some companies are recruiting people while laying off employees, which is actually a kind of adjustment preparation. We all know that there are four reasons for layoffs: First, reduce labor costs. When the economy is bad, the labor force in the market is declining, and the labor force is basically discounted by 6, and the original salary of 10,000 yuan can now be recruited for only 6,000 yuan. The original salary of 6,000 yuan can now be recruited for only 3,000 yuan. Labor is a commodity, and it is purchased at a low price when the labor commodity is discounted; The second is to adjust the organizational structure, which is also a structural layoff, which is the result of internal and external environmental impacts. The situation of different units within the company is different, the profit and loss are different, the business line is sorted out, the organizational structure is adjusted, some units are cancelled, while other sectors are still recruiting; the third is the change in the demand for talents generated by enterprise development and technological innovation; Fourth, operational layoffs. When the business encounters difficulties, there are significant layoffs, reducing expenses and reducing cash flow pressure. But there are also some *** that have hit the overall cohesion and caused personnel turmoil. There are vacancies in key positions, which will affect the operation, so it is necessary to recruit and fill in the personnel. Layoffs and hiring at the same time are the phenomenon of these four reasons, which can be seen as preparing for future development. There are also companies in the layout of "hard assets", "new tracks", emerging markets and so on. The small cycle of different industries is different, but they all follow the macro cycle, the small cycle is experienced by the enterprise itself, and the big cycle is the economic cycle. The size of the cycle is a test of the entrepreneur's grasp of the timing, and when the periodic adjustment is made, the periodic adjustment should be done. The cycle switch, the downward cycle stage, is the time when the prepared enterprise "overtakes in the corner". Really good companies are planning and layout in winter, quietly stabilizing the fundamentals, and then preparing for the next step. In the end, such an enterprise can be stable and far-reaching, and can go out of its own way.
What do you need to do as ordinary people? Ordinary people are weak in their ability to resist risks, and most people have no capital and resources other than their own labor. Therefore, the first thing to consider is the personal and family risks. Clause.
First, keep your job first, if you have a job, you will have income, if you have income, you can hold on, and if you can survive, there is hope. Now that there are fewer and fewer stable good jobs in the market, don't quit naked when you don't find a better platform; Clause.
Second, we should pay attention to our cash flow, and cash-like assets are the guarantee to survive the recession. At this time, don't worry too much about inflation, ordinary people should first protect their lives with this little money, and safety is the first. You can't win the bookmaker even if you invest. Of course, if you have special resources and opportunities, you must seize the opportunities in this reshuffle; Clause.
3. Reduce debt, don't easily increase leverage; Clause.
Fourth, reasonable throttling, do not overdraft consumption in advance; Fifth, cultivate and improve your internal strength, read more books, study more, think more, recuperate, and accumulate strength. At the same time, you can make more like-minded friends, no matter what the environment is, you can benefit yourself a lot; Clause.
6. Pay attention to safety and do not conflict with others outside. During the Great Recession, many people were forced to live in such a way that disagreement could become the trigger for a dangerous outbreak. Especially for the hard-working low-level personnel, be polite and respectful. Stay away from the idle people in the society, if there is a conflict, you must learn to admit it, do not entangle with the rotten people, and stay away quickly, your time is worth more than them. Maintain peace of mind and live your life well; Clause.
7. Pay attention to relevant policy guidance and industrial development trends. Chances are in**? Look at the liquidity infusion**, look at the policy orientation, and so on. After the crisis, we can seize more opportunities and points. Once the economy improves, your income will rise, and you are afraid that in difficult times, you will not be able to survive and fall, and then the reversal will have nothing to do with you.
The economic cycle repeats itself. History repeats itself, but it is not simply repeated, and what really needs to be grasped is not those things in history, but the logic behind them. In the face of a crisis, it is an "opportunity" for those who are prepared, and a "crisis" for those who are not prepared. Throughout history, crises have had a strong social wealth redistribution effect. In every Great Recession shuffle in history, there is an opportunity for wealth, and only those who are prepared can seize this opportunity.