MOSCOW, Feb. 23 (Xinhua) -- The second anniversary of the escalation of the Ukraine crisis: The impasse is hard to break and the light is yet to come.
Xinhua News Agency reporters Huang He, Li Dongxu, Zhao Bing.
February 24 marks the second anniversary of the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine.
The protracted crisis has not only caused huge losses to the economy and people's livelihood of Russia and Ukraine, but also had a serious negative impact on regional politics and security, world economic recovery, global poverty reduction, food and energy security, and the ecological environment. At present, Russia and Ukraine are in a stalemate on the battlefield, with sharp political confrontation, and the United States wantonly adding fuel to the fire and making a huge war windfall, and the dawn of peace is still elusive.
The front line is a stalemate.
Over the past year, the frontline of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been fierce. In May last year, the Russian army seized Artyomovsk, a key transportation place (called **mut on the Ukrainian side); The Ukrainian army launched in June last year in several directions**, but progress has been slow and ineffective for several months; Since the beginning of October last year, the Russian army has launched a new trend against the Ukrainian defense line in Avdeyevka, Maryinka, **mut and other places in eastern Ukraine. On the 17th of this month, the Ukrainian army, which was short of troops and ammunition, withdrew from the defensive town of Avdeyevka, which is regarded as the biggest change on the front line since May last year.
In addition to the tug-of-war on the front line, Russia and Ukraine have been using long-range ** strikes against each other's rear targets for the past year. The Russian army intensively attacked military industrial facilities and ammunition warehouses in Ukraine, ** Defense Minister Shoigu said that the Russian army launched 127 high-precision strikes on Ukraine's military-industrial infrastructure in January this year. The Ukrainian army also used drones, long-range rocket artillery, etc. to intensify attacks on targets in Russia, and frequently launched attacks in the Black Sea, causing damage to military equipment such as the Russian Navy's "Novocherkassk" large landing ship.
The British "Economist" magazine recently analyzed that in the past year, the Russian army has made small progress in expanding the area under its control. Ukrainian analysts believe that the Ukrainian army will carry out asymmetric operations next, and in order to avoid competition and attrition with the Russian army on the frontal battlefield, it will mainly use drones, electronic warfare equipment and fortifications to maximize the consumption of the Russian army and hit the Russian logistics supply.
The Washington Post writes about the difficult European land war, muddy trench bunkers, and a large number of amputee wounded ......The Russia-Ukraine conflict is increasingly taking on the characteristics of a war of attrition of the First World War.
The economy is under pressure and people's livelihood is difficult.
Over the past two years, the West has imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine crisis, and the Russian economy has gradually shown resilience after the initial stages of the conflict. According to data released by Rosstat in early February this year, GDP will grow by 36%。The decision of the Central Bank of Russia to maintain the benchmark interest rate of 16% this month also shows that the current pressure to stabilize prices, maintain prices and reduce inflation is still large, and the sustainable growth of the Russian economy is still facing challenges.
Ukraine's economy is increasingly dependent on Western aid, and the situation is worrying. According to data from the National Bank of Ukraine, the budget deficit of Ukraine in 2023 will hit a record high of 133 trillion hryvnia (about $35.1 billion), equivalent to 20% of GDP. Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmygal told ** a few days ago that Ukraine's total economic output has fallen by 30% since the conflict, and 3.5 million jobs have been lost. About a quarter of Ukraine's state budget this year needs Western aid to fill it, but Ukraine faces many obstacles in obtaining aid, according to **.
The European economy continues to be under the shadow of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Soaring energy**, high inflation, huge losses for businesses, shrinking real wages, declining purchasing power, and a global economic downturn sent the European economy to a quagmire of low growth last year. A study released by the Swiss National Bank last September showed that the negative impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the European economy could be more severe in the medium to long term.
Jan Obery, founder of the Swedish Society for Transnational Peace and Future Studies, recently said that the consequences of the isolation of the United States and Europe and large-scale sanctions against Russia hit back to Europe like a "boomerang".
The protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine has also had spillover effects in areas such as food, energy security, and ecology. The Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant in Kherson Oblast, which is an important source of cooling water for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, was damaged in June last year, causing the dam to burst and the impounded water poured into the lower reaches of the Dnieper River, posing serious ecological and humanitarian risks.
Peace is hard to find in the West.
The latest entry of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFI) is aimed at more than 1 of 12 member statesAccording to the results of the survey of 70,000 respondents**, support for Ukraine among Europeans is still high, but at the same time, more than 40% of respondents want Europe to urge Ukraine to negotiate with Russia. Politico reported in December last year, citing sources, that the United States and Europe are gradually shifting their attention from supporting Ukraine's goal of a comprehensive victory to enhancing Ukraine's position in negotiations to end the conflict.
However, in the opinion of analysts, it is more difficult for Russia and Ukraine to resume negotiations in 2024 in terms of the current situation. On the one hand, the positions of Russia and Ukraine are sharply opposed, and there is no political basis for peace talks. Russia has repeatedly stated that Russia is willing to negotiate peace, but Ukraine must accept the new territorial reality. U.S. Zelensky also publicly responded that despite the difficult situation on the front line, the Ukrainian side refused to accept the proposal to negotiate with Russia. In his opinion, Russia does not express a desire for peace, so Ukraine cannot seek peace "at any cost".
On the other hand, the West's continued efforts to fuel the fire have made the prospects for peace even more remote. The United States, Ukraine's largest military donor, has taken advantage of the conflict to make a windfall. The US "Wall Street" recently published an article entitled "How the War in Europe Will Benefit the US Economy," saying that in the past two years, orders for the US defense industry and ammunition have increased significantly. U.S. defense and aerospace industry has grown by 17 percent since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, according to Federal Reserve data5%。US Senator Tommy Tuberville noted that it is Washington politicians who are fomenting the war and prolonging the conflict.
It's not just the U.S. defense industry that has profited significantly. The disruption of Russian natural gas** has led to a sharp rise in European energy** and inflation, while stimulating European demand for US LNG. According to reports, the United States is building five liquefied natural gas projects with a total investment of about $100 billion, most of which were launched after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. "The U.S. economy has benefited enormously from these massive investments. Alex Monton, head of global natural gas research at Rapidan Energy Consulting, said.
According to Wall Street**, the United States became the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas last year. U.S. LNG exports are expected to nearly double by 2030, with about two-thirds of them going to Europe.
Angela Stant, an expert on Russia at Georgetown University in the United States, believes that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is about to enter its third year, and the stalemate seems to continue, and the prospect of ending the conflict through negotiations is slim. In response, O'Berry said that everything the West has done so far has not contributed to ending the conflict and has not learned any lessons from the Ukrainian crisis. (Participating reporters: Fu Yiming, Deng Xianlai) (end).