On January 30, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev announced that Russia would in the future deploy nuclear ** in the region of the South Kuril Islands, which is disputed by the territory of Japan and Russia. The announcement immediately sparked a strong reaction from the international community.
At the same time, at the plenary session of the Japanese House of Representatives, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida delivered an important speech. Fumio Kishida made it clear that although Japan intends to sign a peace treaty with Russia, it will not ease sanctions against Russia.
The precondition for the signing of a peace treaty between Japan and Russia is the settlement of territorial disputes between the two countries, including the issue of the South Kuril Islands, which are currently under Russian control. However, it will not be easy for Japan to recover the South Kuril Islands.
The dispute between Japan and Russia over the South Kuril Islands is intensifying. Some analysts** believe that if the situation continues to deteriorate, Japan could find itself in a situation similar to Ukraine.
Why does Russia persist in controlling the South Kuril Islands and is unwilling to compromise? What efforts did Japan make to recapture the South Kuril Islands?
Currently, the dispute between Japan and Russia over the South Kuril Islands stems mainly from the Portsmouth Treaty, which was signed after the end of the Russo-Japanese War. In this agreement, Russia ceded the South Kuril Islands directly to Japan.
However, in accordance with the San Francisco Treaty signed in 1951, Japan ** unequivocally renounced its territorial claims to the South Kuril Islands and Sakhalin.
The Kuril Islands at that time were under the occupation of the Soviet Red Army, and Japan could not afford to claim this part of the territory to the USSR. Over time, the two sides have developed a subtle understanding of the territory.
Theoretically, there should be no dispute about the ownership of the South Kuril Islands. Because the question of the ownership of the South Kuril Islands is, in essence, part of the post-World War II international order. Previously, the archipelago was under the control of the Soviet Union, and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the territory naturally belonged to Russia.
For many years, the inhabitants of the South Kuril Islands were mostly ethnic Russians. Whether it is culture, language or living habits, the islanders are closer to Russia.
In addition, Japan's claims to sovereignty over the South Kuril Islands are based only on treaties signed after the Russo-Japanese War. However, the Russo-Japanese War was not a just war, and Japan lacked a basic basis in international law when occupying the South Kuril Islands.
At one time, the Soviet Union had been in confrontation with the United States for decades, and it also took a tough stance on the issue of the South Kuril Islands. This territorial dispute led to the failure of the Soviet Union and later Russia to sign a peace treaty with Japan.
Faced with the powerful Soviet Union, Japan reluctantly accepted the situation. Since Japan's military and national strength were far inferior to those of the Soviet Union, they did not have the courage to provoke the Soviet Union, in sharp contrast to the period of the Russo-Japanese War.
However, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia's comprehensive national power was rapidly declining, providing an opportunity for Japan. Since the 90s of the last century, many Japanese politicians have again raised the "issue of the four northern islands (South Kuril Islands)". And at the beginning of the 21st century, in order to improve relations with European and American countries, Russia took a relatively moderate attitude towards the issue of the South Kuril Islands.
Japan's challenge to Russia's territorial claims after the end of the Cold War was inevitably backed by the United States and the Western bloc. Russia's moderate attitude on this issue is also aimed at courting Europe and the United States.
However, after 2012, there was a rift in Russia's relations with Western countries such as the United States. In this case, Russia abandoned its moderate attitude towards Japan and launched a long-term confrontation.
Recently, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev said on his social ** account that the South Kuril Islands belong to Russian territory, and Japan is dissatisfied with this and can commit suicide.
At the same time, Medvedev satirized Japan, accusing them of deliberately ignoring the history of the atomic bombs of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, out of obedience and fear for the United States and other Western countries.
On January 30, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida delivered a speech in the House of Representatives, saying that Japan may sign a peace treaty with Russia in the future, hinting at its willingness to negotiate on the South Kuril Islands issue, but insisting on maintaining sanctions against Russia.
The sanctions mentioned by Fumio Kishida refer to the sanctions imposed by Japan on Russia in conjunction with the United States after the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In other words, whether Japan lifts sanctions against Russia or not depends not on itself, but on the attitude of the United States. In response, a commentator of the Russian news agency Sputnik criticized Fumio Kishida, saying that he was dishonest by using the issue of the South Kuril Islands while he was involved in a black gold political scandal.
Medvedev commented on his personal social ** account: "There are no disputes over the South Kuril Islands, which are the territory of Russia. The Russians are not interested in the so-called four northern islands of Japan. ”
On January 11, during an inspection of the Far East, Russia's Putin said that Russia plans to develop the South Kuril Islands as a tourist area.
In addition, Putin stressed his plans to personally visit the South Kuril Islands in the future. This statement immediately attracted the attention of the Japanese side, but Russia does not seem to be interested in too much consultation with Japan on this matter.
As things stand, the sovereignty and development of the South Kuril Islands remain completely in the hands of Russia. It is nearly impossible for Japan to regain its dominance of the region in the short term.
Therefore, if Japan wishes to realize its ambitions for the South Kuril Islands, it can only pin its hopes on the future. However, the road ahead is bound to be full of challenges and difficulties. Some analysts even believe that according to the current development situation, Japan is likely to become another Ukraine. Those who are familiar with Japan's history know that Japan has always been a country that bullies the weak and fears the hard. The main reason why they have taken a tough stance against Russia is that Russia's comprehensive national strength is not as good as it used to be.
However, as the saying goes: "The tiger falls in Pingyang and is bullied by dogs." "Whatever Japan's intentions for the South Kuril Islands, it is likely that they will be able to put pressure on Russia only through diplomatic and economic means.
It is worth noting that Russia still has a large number of nuclear warheads created during the Soviet era. If Japan takes tough action at this moment, it will inevitably face a resolute military counterattack from Russia.
In that case, Japan may well be reduced to another Ukraine. For such an outcome, the top level of Japan is undoubtedly well aware.
On January 30, Medvedev once again announced: in the future, Russia may introduce a new type of ** in the South Kuril Islands region. In fact, this move directly defeated Japan's sovereignty aspirations over the South Kuril Islands.
In fact, observers are well aware that the evolution of the situation in Northeast Asia is not limited to the wrestling between Russia and Japan. U.S. influence has always been there.
Therefore, Russia's announcement of the deployment of a new ** in the South Kuril Islands is not only directed against Japan. Its real target is the United States, which has long manipulated the situation in the region behind the scenes.
Looking at the actions of the United States during the Russia-Ukraine war, it can be inferred that the United States is highly likely unwilling to enter into a direct military conflict with Russia. Such a price is unbearable for the United States, and it is difficult for Japan to bear. In fact, the overwhelming majority of the Japanese population understands that it is unlikely that Japan will achieve control over the South Kuril Islands in the short term.
In addition, the South Kuril Islands have been thoroughly "Russified". Even if Japan were to seize the region by force today, it would still be a long process to develop and govern it.
Therefore, "conclude a peace treaty, recover the South Kuril Islands" is more like a meaningless political slogan. Japanese politicians have repeatedly emphasized this goal, in essence, in order to boost their own support and win votes for their parties.
Given Japan's lack of control, guts, and governance capabilities, it is almost impossible to regain control of the South Kuril Islands at this time.
Earlier, there was news from Russia that China would be invited to participate in the development of the South Kuril Islands. Although China has not responded definitively, it shows that Russia is confident in its dominance of the archipelago.
Looking at the history of Japan's rise, its rapid development and influence in Northeast Asia are mainly influenced by the international environment. However, Japan is still a limited country, and its influence is far from sufficient to pose a threat to China and Russia. Today, Japan has returned to its roots.
With the decline of the United States and other Western countries, the issue of the South Kuril Islands will eventually be resolved with Japan's compromises and concessions. History has repeatedly proven that competition between countries depends on comprehensive national strength. Although the political slogans are loud, but without the support of strength, all goals will come to naught.