The report highlights that the U.S. and global economies appear to be on the path to a "soft landing."
Data released on Wednesday showedThe ADP employment in the United States, known as the "small non-farm payrolls", recorded 1070,000 people, the smallest increase since November 2023, lower than the market expectation of 1450,000, the increase in December last year was revised downward to 1580,000 people, in line with the gradual cooling of the labor market.
The ADP noted that only the information services sector reported a decline in employment, however, hiring was slow in almost all sectors. Employment in the leisure and hospitality sector increased the most, with an increase of 280,000 people. The hiring slowdown in 2023 continued into January, and wage pressures continued to ease
In terms of wage growth, wage growth continues to narrow. Wages of employed persons increased by 5% year-on-year in January2%, down from 5 in December last year4%。For those who change jobs, the salary increase is 72%, the smallest annual increase since May 2021.
Adp chief economist Nela Richardson said progress on inflation had brightened the economic outlook despite the slowdown in hiring and pay. Inflation-adjusted wages have improved over the past six monthsThe U.S. and global economies appear to be heading for a soft landing
In terms of specific data, the ADP report shows:
Professional business services employment increased by 020,000, an increase of 010,000 people, and the median annual rate of salary growth was 51% and 5 in December2%。Labor demand and wage growth in the U.S. have slowed from their post-COVID highs last year. Data released on Tuesday showedFewer and fewer Americans are quitting, which suggests that they may be less confident in finding a new job or a higher-paying job.Financial services employment increased by 070,000 people, an increase of 180,000 people, and the median annual rate of salary growth was 56% and 5 in December9%。
In January** Transportation Utilities employment increased by 230,000 people, an increase of 150,000 people. The median annual rate of wage growth was 47% and 5 in December2%。
Manufacturing employment increased by 020,000 people, down 130,000 people. The median annual rate of wage growth was 48% and 5 in December1%。
Construction employment increased by 220,000 people, an increase of 2 in December40,000 people. The median annual rate of wage growth was 56% compared to 6 in December0%。
Data released a little later also shows,The U.S. labor cost index recorded a quarterly rate of 09%, the smallest increase since 2021, the index rose 11%。This is also in line with the gradual cooling of the labor market.
For now, the market expects the Fed to continue to "hold its ground" on Thursday and believes that it will be looking for signs of further cooling in inflation.
On Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the January non-farm payrolls report, which the market expects to increase by 1850,000, an increase of 21 from December60,000 people have slowed down.