Is the teacher establishment going to be gone? In 2024, the first smashed iron rice bowl will appear

Another iron rod was smashed.

Let's interpret it, to put it simply, if the teacher is not in place, even if you have the staff, you may be dismissed.

It's really a bit scary, you must know that in the past, these things happened in those remote areas where the pot could not be opened, but this time it was in Beijing.

Everyone understands how strong the capital's exemplary power is, and everyone understands it, so I don't need to go into details.

A lot of people are starting to have questions:

Even if the number of teachers is broken, won't the students have to be taught?

Don't look at the current degree tension, in fact, this is just a short peak of the second child in the past few years. The second child born in 2015 and 2016 is just at the age of elementary school this year, so there will be a shortage of places in these two years.

But the question isWill there be a next wave after this small peak?

The answer is actually quite clearNot only not, but even how much the number of births will fall, no one knows.

Since 2017, the number of newborns in China has fallen sharply like a free fall, and by 2023, there will be only 9.02 million newborns, which is shocking. In just one year, the number of newborns has been halved, as if swallowed by an invisible black hole. It's not just the numbers that are dwindling, it's the hope for the future that is quietly fading, and people can't help but worry about the future of this ancient land.

There are fewer and fewer babies, why do you want so many schools? The school is gone, are the teachers still there?

Let's take kindergarten as an example to get a glimpse of future education trends. In 2022, the number of kindergarten students in China plummeted by nearly 1.8 million, and more than 5,000 kindergartens reluctantly closed their doors. This is just the beginning, and as children grow up, from kindergarten to primary school, to secondary school and university, the tragedy of school closures will be repeated at all ages. This is not just a crisis for one school, but a serious challenge for the entire education system.

You said the schools are gone, but are the teachers still there?

The research team at Beijing Normal University has said that by 2035, China will face a surplus of at least 2 million teachers. This is undoubtedly a wake-up call for students who are applying for teacher training majors, and indicates the employment challenges they face after graduation. After all, without a master's or doctoral degree, it is almost impossible to step into the ranks of teachers, and it is difficult to even knock on the door of a training institution. This is not only a severe test for normal students, but also a profound reflection on the entire education industry.

Of course, as for those teachers who are now on the job, don't think that as long as you don't make mistakes, you can always eat public food.

Don't forget, teachers have always been the most vulnerable in the system, otherwise why would the first reform of the pilot project be "opened" by teachers?

And the state's expenditure on the education industry has always been the bulk of public expenditure, more than 63% of the education funds are used to pay teachers' salaries, when the economy was good in the past, not many people cared about this little money, but now in this environment, those who still think that teachers' iron rice bowls cannot be broken, do you believe it?

In fact, now not only the teaching profession, but also many positions in the system are gradually abandoning the stability of the iron rice bowl. In Beijing, institutions in areas such as fintech are undergoing a profound optimization and adjustment, which reveals the sadness and pain behind many families.

There is also Jiangsu, which has made it clear that at least 5% of the establishment will be reduced, and Maduo County in Qinghai is even more powerful, reducing the number of 25 government agencies and units by five in one year, and 20% of the iron rice bowls have been smashed.

Even the most stable core has begun to use "knives" against themselves, let alone more ordinary teachers?

Again, in the days of tightening the belt, all posts that eat local finance, no matter how iron the job is, are the objects of adjustment.

The reality is very cruel, please don't have any more illusions, after all, no one wants to see their children, they have studied hard for so many years, and they can't even find a job after graduation, right?

Of course, there must be gains and losses, in the future, China will accelerate into an aging society, there will be more and more elderly people, doctors, nurses These positions will be more and more insufficient, and there are many similar opportunities.

Remember one sentence:

People don't talk about the pattern at the trough, they don't talk about right or wrong when the trend is down, and the survival of the fittest is always the most domineering royal road in the world.

Therefore, we must always keep a clear head to adapt to the rapidly changing environment, and only in this way can we occupy a place in the fierce competition.