Is America in Decline? This is the concern of many Americans, and it is the campaign slogan of Donald Trump**. He promised to make America great again and adopted a series of isolationist and populist policies. But his premise is wrong, his solutions are harmful, and his policies could instead accelerate America's decline.
Americans' fear of decline is nothing new. Since the founding of the Massachusetts Bay Colony in the seventeenth century, there have been nostalgia for the early Puritan virtues. In the eighteenth century, the Founding Fathers studied the rise and fall of Rome in an attempt to find a lasting way to survive the nascent American Republic. In the nineteenth century, Charles Dickens sarcastically said that Americans always complained that their country was depressed, stagnant, and in crisis, and it never changed. In 1979, on the cover of a magazine, the Statue of Liberty was covered with tears, symbolizing the decline of the country.
But Americans' nostalgia for the past is unrealistic. The United States has never been as strong as they thought it would be. Even with its abundant resources, the United States often suffers setbacks and failures. Those who think that the world today is more complex and turbulent than ever, should recall 1956, the year when the United States was unable to prevent the Soviet Union from suppressing the uprising in Hungary and the invasion of the Suez Canal by allies Britain, France and Israel. The theory of decline is more a reflection of the psychological state of the American than an objective geopolitics.
The theory of decline has also become a hot topic in American politics and has been exploited by various parties. Sometimes, it leads the United States to adopt harmful protectionist policies, such as foreign restrictions. Sometimes, it leads the United States to adopt excessive expansionist policies, such as the Iraq War. In both cases, the United States did not correctly assess its own strength.
When analyzing the power of the United States, it is necessary to distinguish between absolute and relative declines. In contrast, the United States has been in decline since the end of World War II. It will no longer occupy half of the world economy, nor will it have a nuclear monopoly. This is because the war gave the U.S. economy a huge boost, while other countries suffered severe damage. But as other countries recovered, the U.S. share of global GDP fell to one-third before 1970, on par with the eve of World War II.
Richard Nixon saw this decline as evidence of decline and removed the gold standard for the dollar. But half a century later, the dollar is still the world's main reserve currency, and the U.S. share of global GDP is still a quarter. America's decline did not prevent it from triumphing in the Cold War.
The United States still has a strong advantage in the great power competition of the 21st century. But if the United States is proud and complacent about its own peak, it can make serious mistakes. Giving up valuable chips, such as strong alliances and influence in international institutions, is Trump's policy. These policies will not make America great again, but will weaken America's position.
U.S. populist policies, such as not supporting Ukraine or withdrawing from NATO, can also undermine U.S. soft power, i.e., its attraction to others. If Trump is re-elected in November, this year could be a turning point in American power. Eventually, Americans' sense of decline may become a reality.
A country can lose its internal virtue and cohesion, even if it remains dominant in external strength. Just as the Roman Empire lasted a long time after losing its republic. America's democratic system is at risk of becoming polarized and fragile, which may be the real cause of America's decline.