Defeating Samsung, which has been the No. 1 for more than ten years, Apple will top the global smartphone sales list for the first time in 2023.
The global economic situation is volatile, smartphone shipments hit a 10-year low, and the mobile phone replacement cycle has been extended to 51 months......In 2023, when many negative factors are intertwined, the medal of the "annual sales champion" of this mobile phone in Apple's hand is more sufficient.
The iPhone is the world's best-selling one
Recently, a number of international market research institutions have announced the 2023 global smartphone report card, and the news that "Apple beat Samsung to win the championship for the first time" has been repeatedly mentioned. Global smartphone shipments and annual growth rate in 2023**: Canalys Among them, data from the international market research institute Canalys shows that the annual shipment of smartphones in 2023 will be 11400 million units, Apple with a 20% market share and 2For the first time, shipments of 29.2 billion units ranked first in the year.
Global smartphone shipments from 2014 to 2023
In fact, the smartphone market has come out of the era of high-speed growth. According to market research firm Canalys, global smartphone shipments exceeded 1 billion units for the first time in 2013 and reached 14 percent in 2017After a peak of 5.5 billion units, growth has stalled. In 2023, global smartphone shipments will fall back to 11400 million units, down 4% year-on-year.
In this context, the iPhone "won the championship" is remarkable. Although in terms of technology and products, Apple's leading position is widely recognized and affirmed. However, in terms of the market, Samsung has been beating Apple with its global high reputation, high, medium and low-end product layout and rich sales channel coverage, and has "occupied" the world's first smartphone for more than ten years.
The global best-selling iPhone in 2023 not only sent Apple to the top of the global smartphone shipment championship, but also made Apple make a lot of money. Apple's financial report for the first quarter of fiscal 2024 (ending December 30, 2023) released on February 1 showed that iPhone sales increased to $69.7 billion from $65.8 billion in the previous fiscal year, and revenue performance exceeded Wall Street's expectations of 685$500 million.
Why did Apple "win the championship"?
The reasons that propelled Apple to become the sales champion of the global smartphone market in 2023 are not simple.
The first reason is that the growth of the high-end market has consolidated the basic market of the iPhone.
Since its release in 2007, the high-end market has been the main battlefield of the iPhone. According to data from authoritative market institutions, Apple's single-machine ** is above $400, and 80% of the products are more than $800 per unit**.
Growth in the high-end market has held Apple's fundamentals. According to Counterpoint Research, the global market for high-end smartphones (wholesale price $600) is expected to set a new record for 6% year-on-year growth in 2023. According to the report, the high-end market is expected to account for nearly a quarter of the global smartphone market sales in 2023, with 60% of revenue.
The second reason is that the replacement cycle of the iPhone is extended, and the value of the second-hand phone is more preserved.
According to the latest data released by TechInsights, the replacement rate of smartphones worldwide may fall to 23 in 2023The lowest point of 5% (51 months for replacement cycles).
It's not that Samsung can't afford it, it's that the iPhone is more cost-effective. This seemingly contradictory sentence is recognized by more and more consumers: compared with mobile phones using Android system, the replacement cycle of iPhones is longer, and the value retention rate of second-hand phones is higher.
Consumers tend to buy products with a longer life cycle, and the iPhone wins the battle between Apple and Samsung's S series (Samsung's high-end line of phones). Canalys analyst Zhou Lexuan said in an interview with a reporter from China Electronics News. According to a report by Canalys, only 10% of Apple users upgrade in the first year after buying an iPhone, compared to 23% of Android buyers who upgrade in the first year. 61% of Apple users have used the iPhone for more than 2 years, while 43% of Android users have used it for more than 2 years.
The reporter consulted a second-hand platform for electronic products and found that the value retention rate of the iPhone is higher. In the reporter as a customer to consult the second-hand consumer electronics platform**, the customer service staff said that compared with Android mobile phones, the second iphone is higher. "The 128G iPhone6S released in 2015, if it can be turned on normally, the screen and the body are less bumped, and the price can be about 200 yuan. In the same year, some Android flagship models were launched at a price of about 100 yuan, and some models were priced at dozens of yuan. ”
The benefits that Apple has brought from its efforts to drive brand value, have permeated its used and refurbished devices. Zhou pointed out that with the sale of refurbished equipment, Apple's position in emerging regions such as Latin America is rising. The ** value of the refurbished machine market is an important factor for Apple to achieve the first place in global sales in 2023.
The latest iPhone sales offer on Apple's official website in China (**Apple's official website in China).
The third reason is that Apple is promoting a more aggressive marketing policy.
Sales of Apple's latest models in 2023 have not been smooth sailing, with data from market research firm Counterpoint Research showing that sales of the iPhone 15 series in the first 17 days of their debut in China fell by 4 percent compared to the iPhone 14 series released in 20225%。
In this regard, Apple has launched an unprecedented promotion. Only one month after its release, the price of iPhone 15 on third-party platforms has dived, and the worst has reached 1700 yuan. In addition, Apple has lowered the threshold for participation in official deductions.
In the past, Apple's official **old machine was lower than that of the third-party platform**, and now, even if users buy Apple Care+, they are not eligible for 'annual renewal' (a value-added service launched by Apple in 2016), they can also enjoy a 5% discount for new phone service (only for iPhone15 previous generation models). Liu Renjian, a researcher at Shenzhen Zhongwei Zhiyan Consulting, said in an interview with a reporter from China Electronics News.
The battle for the championship is still a duel between the two heroes
In 2024, will Apple be able to hold on to the crown that has just arrived?
Industry experts believe that Apple's re-election will largely depend on whether it can maintain its leading position in the Chinese market.
However, in the new year, Apple's mobile phones have had a bad start in the Chinese market. According to data released by market research institute BCI, in January 2024, the number of new iPhone activations will reach 1,501160,000 units, an increase of 10% over the same period last year. And the second place Xiaomi and the third place Huawei each increased the number of activations4% and 793%。Investment bank Jefferies noted that Apple's iPhone sales in China fell by 30% in the first week of 2024 compared to the same period last year. According to the agency, iPhone sales in China will fall by double digits by 2024.
In the long run, Apple still sees significant opportunities in the Chinese market." Although Apple's chief financial officer Luca Mestry expressed confidence in the Chinese market at the earnings conference on February 1, Apple has quietly lowered its iPhone shipment estimate to 200 million units in 2024, a 15% decrease from 2023.
Samsung launched the Galaxy S21 series of mobile phones with on-device AI functions (**Samsung's official website).
On the other hand, Samsung is aggressively attacking the Chinese market in order to return to the first place. Canalys believes that on-device AI is an important force for Samsung's mobile phones to regain growth. Recently, Samsung released the Galaxy S24 series, a flagship new machine with a large AI model on the device side; At the press conference, Samsung also announced its initiative to actively promote the localization of mobile phones in China. Samsung China has formed a strategic partnership with Smart Cloud for the Galaxy AI ecosystem, and Samsung Photos has cooperated with Meitu to bring AI remodeling, image expansion, and image generation functions. In addition, the reporter observed that at the marketing level, Samsung's official website has launched preferential measures such as "more installments, replacement subsidies, one-year replacement without repair, 6% discount for value replacement, and 1-year extended warranty service to win 100 yuan phone bill" and other preferential measures. Some industry experts said that Samsung may launch its first entry-level folding screen phone in 2024 to consolidate its position in the low-end market below $400.
The new high-end phone design paradigm is generative AI and folding screens. Tianfeng International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo pointed out. Compared with Samsung's products that actively promote the above characteristics in the high-end market, the iPhone has been "lagging behind" in the two high-end product forms for a long time. Although Apple CEO Tim Cook said in his recent earnings conference that he would release an artificial intelligence feature in 2024, he did not reveal whether the feature would be applied to the latest generation of iPhones. As a result, Ming-Chi Kuo predicted: "Among the world's major mobile phone brands in 2024, Apple may be the one with the largest decline." ”
Industry experts**, for a long time in the future, the global smartphone "sales champion" is likely to appear Apple and Samsung take turns to sit in the bank.
In addition to Samsung and Apple, there is no third mobile phone brand that has the strength to compete for the number one position in global smartphone sales. Liu Jianren said, "In 2024, Samsung still has a high probability of regaining the first place." ”
Author丨Wang WeiEditor丨Qiu Jiang YongmeiEditor丨Maria Producer丨Lian Xiaodong.