Recently, in the context of the downturn for many consecutive days and the new low in the photovoltaic sector, TCL Zhonghuan, Tongwei Co., Ltd., LONGi Green Energy, Aixu Co., Ltd., Daqo Energy, Trina Solar and other photovoltaic leaders "grouped" to set off a wave of photovoltaic repurchases, with a cumulative maximum repurchase amount of more than 4.4 billion yuan, of which the silicon material leader Tongwei Co., Ltd. and silicon wafer leader TCL Zhonghuan are the most "generous", and the maximum repurchase amount is expected to reach 2 billion yuan and 1 billion yuan.
According to the analysis, the reasons for the repurchase of the above-mentioned enterprises converge, including the long-term optimism of the photovoltaic industry, the recognition of the company's long-term investment value, the investment to boost the confidence of the secondary market and safeguard the interests of shareholders, and the improvement of the company's long-term incentive mechanism. Among them,TCL Zhonghuan said that "according to the actual situation of the company's stock price trend in the secondary market recently, after fully considering the business development prospects, operating conditions, financial situation, future profitability and other factors, the company decided to use its own funds to repurchase part of the company's public shares in a centralized bidding transaction", Tongwei shares believe that "combined with the current company's secondary market value is seriously undervalued, in order to strengthen investor confidence, Tongwei Group decided to increase its holdings." ”
The common goal of the companies entering the "PV buyback wave" is to boost confidence, including the confidence of partners, investors and other stakeholders in the long-term sustainable development of enterprises and industries, as well as the confidence of the capital market.
Photovoltaic, the leader in the field of new energy
A number of leading photovoltaic companies dare to "spend a lot of money", or from the optimistic development prospects of the photovoltaic industry.
Where there is light, there is electricity", rich application scenarios bring a huge market increment of photovoltaics.
Photovoltaic power stations are mainly divided into distributed photovoltaic power stations and centralized photovoltaic power stations, the former is self-consumption, less investment and short construction period, and the latter has complementary advantages such as scale efficiency, long-distance power supply and easy expansion, making photovoltaic more flexible than other energy forms. On this basis, photovoltaic has derived a variety of "photovoltaic +" models in the two major fields of distributed and centralized, including "photovoltaic + building", "photovoltaic + hydrogen production", "photovoltaic + energy storage", "photovoltaic + new energy vehicles", etc., which have effectively driven the growth of terminal demand with the expansion of application scenarios.
According to the 2023 national power industry statistics of the National Energy Administration, by the end of 2023, there were 216 new installed photovoltaic capacity in the country88GW, a year-on-year increase of 14812%, of which the new installed capacity of centralized PV exceeded 100GW for the first time, reaching 120GW, and the new installed capacity of distributed PV also hit a record high of 96GW.
Looking forward to the future, photovoltaic as the leader of the new energy track still has high growth.
According to Guoxin, the global photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to maintain a growth rate of about 25% and 20% from 2024 to 2025, and the global new photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 570GW in 2025.
Cyclical fluctuations are the norm in the manufacturing industry, and China's photovoltaic industry has gone through multiple rounds of industrial cycles in the past 20 yearsChinese PV companies that focus on improving quality and efficiency have delivered answers that exceed expectations in each round of cycles, and short-term fluctuations will not change the long-term high growth trend, and the PV industry will continue to develop well in 2024.
Repurchase timing: Characterize the development of confidence, regain momentum and start again
The photovoltaic industry in 2023 can be described as a "Davis double kill" - on the industrial side, the avalanche of polysilicon materials has driven the entire industry chain downward, superimposed overcapacity and n-type technology route changes, photovoltaic companies are fighting at the bottom of the cycle, and their performance is collectively under pressure; In terms of the capital market, affected by the fluctuation of the industrial chain, the stock price trend has taken a sharp turn downward, and the market value of most companies has halved throughout the year. The industry and capital market urgently need to strengthen confidence in development.
At this moment, a number of photovoltaic leading real gold repurchases are undoubtedly injecting a shot of strength into the capital market at the first time.
According to statistics, most of the announcements related to this round of "photovoltaic repurchase tide" are concentrated in late January to early February, which is the time period for the photovoltaic sector to intensively announce the 2023 annual performance forecast - standing at the intersection of the new year and the old year, looking back at 2023, the photovoltaic industry chain has experienced a catastrophe in the short-term supply and demand mismatch; Looking ahead, although the capital market has reflected the pessimistic expectations for the operating performance of the photovoltaic industry in the first quarter of 2024, historical experience shows that "poor expectations" are often the prelude to "exceeding expectations", and the strong rise of global market increments, large-size, and n-type technology products is bringing new opportunities to the photovoltaic industry in 2024, which is where the confidence of photovoltaic leaders to dare to repurchase large-scale repurchases lies.
"Bullets are sufficient", and the wave of photovoltaic buybacks refers to the return of stock price valuation.
As of the date of publication, TCL Zhonghuan has completed the repurchase of about 5 million shares, with a total transaction amount of about 62 million yuan, and according to the calculation of the top repurchase of 1 billion yuan, it still has more than 900 million yuan of "bullets" ready to go. At the same time, the total remaining "bullets" of enterprises related to this round of "photovoltaic repurchase tide" can reach up to 3.4 billion yuan. Historically, most of the companies that have bought back are at low valuations, and the buybacks demonstrate the determination of enterprises and boost the confidence of the capital market, thereby promoting the return of stock price valuations.
As a clean energy source, photovoltaics will continue to shine in the global electricity market due to their safety and economy. In the medium and long cycle, there will be no surplus of photovoltaic new energy, and the advanced production capacity of the photovoltaic industry itself will not be excessive. In the short term, photovoltaic in the fluctuation of the forward, "involution" is the only way to the market economy, short-term overcapacity is a double-edged sword, bringing pressure on the ability of enterprises to operate and drive enterprises to accelerate technological innovation with a more sophisticated attitude, the rapid decline in the cost of photovoltaic electricity makes its development into the most cost-competitive form of new energy, and this, is the result of cycle fluctuations and continuous innovation of enterprises, photovoltaic enterprises should focus on the future, pay attention to innovation, rational competition while looking at the development of globalization.
Text丨Zhong Xinyuan.