Surprise! Huge sums of money fell from the sky, Ukraine came alive in an instant, and it will fight back fiercely in the spring of 2024!
When a 50 billion euro aid sheet arrived, Ukraine was like ice and snow that had been frozen for a long time, and finally smelled the breath of spring. This country, located in the eye of the storm of the stormy Palestinian-Israeli conflict, has been blocked by Israel for a long time. At this time, the 27 countries of the European Union joined forces to send a huge amount of money, like a shot in the arm into the blood of Ukraine.
However, the story is not over yet. At first glance, 50 billion euros is not a small amount. However, I am well aware that Europe is not a bank, and the EU is not a charity. What will be the impact of all this? Is it "sending charcoal in the snow" or "falling into the pit"? Save or perish?
First, we need to recognize the fundamental problem of this incident. Ukraine is in jeopardy in the Russia-Ukraine war, and the United States seems to be gradually abandoning its support for it. At this time, the EU stepped forward and provided 50 billion euros in financial assistance. What is the logic behind this? In other words, why did the EU suddenly come to such a huge bailout?
Behind the aid, there is not only sympathy for Ukraine, but also European strategic considerations. In the Russian-Ukrainian war, Ukraine has been losing on the frontal battlefield, and in the face of the ruthless abandonment of the United States, Europe has decided to extend a helping hand to Ukraine in order to safeguard its own strategic interests. This also means that Europe is not a vassal of the United States and has the will and ability to act independently internationally.
However, the EU's aid is not a well-intentioned move, but a clever move in the strategic game. Although this 50 billion euros of financial aid has given Ukraine hope on the surface, it is actually a kind of stimulus and urging from Europe to the United States. Through high-profile aid actions, Europe is trying to galvanize greater US support to maintain the cooperation and influence of the entire Western system on Ukraine.
However, it is still unclear whether this strategy will work. As a global superpower, the United States has always had its own independent stance and international policies. Although Europe has shown righteous indignation in aid, in fact, the EU does not have strong persuasive power at a time when the strength and confidence of Western countries in aiding Ukraine are becoming more and more fragile. 50 billion euros is not a small amount, but I am afraid that more efforts will be needed to make the United States correct this issue.
In parallel with this strategic game, we also need to look at the reality behind the aid. Although Ukraine has received financial assistance from the European Union, this is not once and for all, but needs to be received in batches from 2024 to 2027. And 33 billion euros of the aid is loans, which means that Ukraine will have to take on more debt in the future. For a country already at war, it would be a daunting challenge to be burdened with such a heavy debt burden.
Looking at the domestic economic situation in Ukraine, the 2024 budget bill shows that Ukraine's fiscal revenue is only 177 trillion hryvnia, while military spending is as high as 1685 trillion hryvnia. Although the aid is abundant, in such a tense military situation, Ukraine has to spend most of its fiscal revenue on the war. The basic livelihood needs are only US$5 billion per month, and although the aid is large, it is difficult to meet the actual needs of the people in the country.
Therefore, if Ukraine wants to make a difference in the next Russia-Ukraine war, this additional aid from the EU alone is far from enough. In such a situation, Ukraine has to rely more on the support of the United States. And the United States, which is about to usher in the first place, will directly determine the direction of the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2024.
In general, although the EU's actions to assist Ukraine give people a glimmer of hope, the strategic considerations and practical issues behind it also make people have to think deeply. At this moment full of uncertainties, Ukraine's game with Europe and the United States has become an important drama on the international political stage. How to find a balance in this game has become a common issue in front of all parties. May this storm of aid bring real spring to Ukraine.