In 2023, the development of the photovoltaic industry will be ups and downs, from the global to the domestic environment, from the market to the technology, there have been many changes. Let's review the photovoltaic industry in 2023 and take stock of the changes in the industry market and technology.
Overcapacity. The PV industry has experienced rapid development over the past few years, and since the second half of 2023, there has been a significant overcapacity problem in the PV industry. According to the Photovoltaic Association**, the global installed PV capacity in 2023 is expected to be 345 390 GW, and by the end of 2023, the nominal production capacity of all links in the main PV industry chain will reach nearly 1000 GW, and the industry as a whole will have overcapacity. This has led to a sharp decline in all links of the industrial chain, and the performance of photovoltaic companies has also continued to be under pressure.
The market ** declined.
In 2023, photovoltaic raw materials** will experience ups and downs due to various factors such as global supply and demand, policy adjustments, etc. With the expansion of photovoltaic production capacity, raw materials are gradually abundant, showing a certain downward trend; In addition, policy changes have also had an important impact on the photovoltaic market, such as the adjustment of photovoltaic subsidy policies.
In terms of photovoltaic modules, due to the fluctuation of raw materials** and the impact of overcapacity, photovoltaic modules** have declined to a certain extent. According to Infolink data, at the end of 2023, PV modules** will drop by nearly 50% compared with the beginning of the year, and the installed cost of PV will drop significantly, according to which it is estimated that the LCOE of PV power generation in most parts of the country has been below 0$2 wh. This has reduced the construction cost of photovoltaic power plants, which has further promoted the popularization and development of the photovoltaic market. However, the reduction of ** has also brought challenges to PV companies.
Installed capacity continues to rise.
In 2023, the global installed PV capacity will continue to grow. According to the International Energy Agency, the global installed photovoltaic capacity has reached a new milestone, mainly due to the emphasis on clean energy and the continuous progress of photovoltaic technology. In the domestic market, the installed capacity of photovoltaics has also continued to grow rapidly.
According to the latest data released by the National Energy Administration, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity reached 163 in the first 11 months of 202388GW, ** machine volume is about 560GW, that is, 5600 million kilowatts. Compared to 87 in 202243GW of new capacity was added, and the new capacity added in the first 11 months of 2023 is more than double that of 2022. China Photovoltaic Association** In 2023, the new installed capacity of global photovoltaic will be 345-390GW, and the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in China will be 160-180GW.
However, the announcement of the National Energy Work Conference held on December 21 said that the new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2024 is expected to be 200 million kilowatts. This means that compared with 2023, the growth rate of domestic photovoltaic installed demand in 2024 is likely to slow down significantly.
Changes in photovoltaic cell technology.
The photovoltaic industry technology is updated and iterated rapidly, and once the old products cannot provide lower LCOE and higher conversion efficiency, they will be replaced by excellent production capacity. In 2023, the upgrading of photovoltaic cell technology will accelerate, and n-type cells are gradually replacing p-type cells. In N-type battery technology, the three types of TopCon, HJT and BC are also competing fiercely.
At present, the efficiency of mainstream p-type cells is close to 24%, which can be said to be close to the theoretical value, so the industry is gradually turning to n-type cell technology with higher theoretical efficiency. At present, N-type cell technologies mainly include TOPCON (tunneling oxide passivation contact solar cell technology), HJT (heterojunction technology) and BC (back contact cell technology).
Since 2023, the domestic production capacity of TOPCon has reached 433GW. According to industry statistics, N-type TOPCON shipments will account for more than 25% of the total market in 2023. Although HJT technology has not yet been put into large-scale production, it will make a technological breakthrough in 2023, and the production cost will be further reduced, and the scale is expected to increase in the future.
BC technology is promoted by industry leader LONGi Green Capability. BC battery is a platform type technology, which can be combined with mainstream battery technologies such as P-type, TOPCon, and HJT. At present, the theoretical conversion efficiency of BC battery technology is 291%, which is the highest conversion efficiency among the three technologies, but it is currently facing multiple challenges such as high investment cost and high process difficulty, and the production capacity is not as good as that of TOPCON. However, driven by industry leaders, there will be further development in the coming years.
Summary. Looking back on 2023, we can see that the overall overview of the photovoltaic industry is that the industrial chain has overcapacity, the upstream and downstream links have declined, the installed capacity has continued to rise, the market scale has continued to expand, and the technology has entered a transformation stage. If I were to sum it up in one word, I would choose "the year of the transition".