Text |Xiao Tian.
In the Year of the Dragon, for three consecutive trading days, A-shares continued to be the first to trend.
On February 21, there were more than 4,100 companies in the whole market, 131 shares rose to the limit, 71 shares were fried, and the sealing rate was 65%.
In the view of brokerage analysts, this is inseparable from the policy of the regulator to stabilize the capital market expectations, and it is also inseparable from a series of good news after the holiday.
Standing at the new starting point of the Year of the Dragon and looking forward to the market outlook, a number of brokerage analysts believe that no matter from the perspective of fundamental liquidity or valuation, the characteristics of the bottom of the market have appeared.
Including Soochow**, Yuekai**, Guosheng** and many other brokerage institutions** are expected to improve in 2024, and there is a high probability that they will stabilize and pick up, and more institutions believe that 2024 is the starting point of a new round of "bull market".
The first trading day of the A** market was red, to a certain extent, due to the impact of domestic travel consumption data during the Spring Festival holiday.
On February 18, data from China's Ministry of Culture and Tourism showed that the total travel cost of domestic tourists during the eight-day Spring Festival holiday was nearly 632.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 473%, an increase of 7 compared to the seven-day holiday in the same period in 20197%, exceeding the pre-pandemic level, indicating that consumption is improving further;
According to the statistics of the National Film Administration, the national film box office during the Spring Festival holiday was nearly 80200 million yuan, setting a new record for the same period.
In addition, OpenAI released a new Wensheng ** model SORA, which has a significant improvement in the effect compared with other Wensheng ** models.
According to CITIC, if SORA becomes a super application in the creative field, it will bring a huge demand for network equipment upgrades. This is expected to alleviate the market's concerns about the sustainability of investment in computing equipment such as optical modules, thereby opening up the valuation space of leading manufacturers.
In the future, as the scale of the model increases, the parameters will continue to be amplified, and the successive launch of multi-modal large models will trigger an exponential increase in the demand for computing power, including training and inference.
As a result, boosted by holiday data and industry progress news, A-shares should be in the red.
Behind the in-depth investigation, the ** of A-shares also comes from changes at the policy level - before the Spring Festival, the China Securities Regulatory Commission ushered in the tenth helmsman Wu Qing. After the new official took office, he introduced a series of policies to stabilize the expectations of the capital market.
Even on Chinese New Year's Eve, the regulator also issued a wave of fines to securities firms and related practitioners, mainly targeting the red line of "** practitioners violating **", and also involving private asset management business and investment banking business.
In the short term, this is still one of the major positives for A-shares.
In addition, the valuation of many companies has been in the bottom range, and even entered the replacement cost range, which is also one of the fundamental reasons why China Securities Construction Investment's A-shares are expected to turn into a small "bull market" in 2024 and usher in a bear-bull conversion period.
As the saying goes, ** is the barometer of the economy.
Objectively speaking, although China's ** has achieved a good start after the holiday, the current recovery foundation of consumption and the market is relatively fragile, so the increase is generally more restrained and belongs to a moderate rise.
In the view of China Securities Construction Investment**,"Generally speaking, the rise and fall of A-shares can be broken down into two parts: earnings volatility and valuation volatility, and from historical experience, the denominator side - valuation fluctuation contribution tends to be greater than the numerator end - earnings volatility".This will form an important idea for its future outlook.
In this context, in industries with more growth and inverted valuations, it is easy to give birth to more cost-effective **. In this regard, in specific industries, a number of brokerage teams have also given the best analysis.
For example, Yue Kai***Real estate industryOr usher in restorative development in 2024.
The reason is that in terms of top-level design, the first financial work conference proposed to speed up the construction of the "three major projects" of affordable housing, urban village transformation, and "level-emergency dual-use" public infrastructure, and build a new real estate development model.
Favorable policies on the demand side have been frequently introduced to promote sales stabilization; The financing side has increased its support to promote the credit repair of real estate enterprises, and the confidence of home buyers has increased to promote the stabilization and recovery of demand. Under the effect of the two incremental factors of urban village renovation and affordable housing, the core indicators of real estate have been significantly restored.
In 2024, the real estate market will change from "bottoming" to "bottoming" to stop the downward trend. "Gold three silver four" is an important node. The renovation of urban villages and the construction of affordable housing will also boost real estate sales.
In addition, some institutions expressed optimismAI, medicine, smart carsand other industries in 2024.
The landing and application of AI in the vertical field will be the main line in 2024; PC is expected to become one of the fastest applications of AI terminals, and 2024 is expected to be the first year of "AI PC".
At the same time, in 2024, humanoid robots will start the first year of mass production; The pharmaceutical industry is expected to have moderate growth in 2024, and multiple main lines are expected to take turns to perform; Huawei's industry chain will significantly benefit from the penetration of intelligent driving and the new model cycle, and intelligent driving will blossom in 2024.
Soochow mentioned that trading opportunities in the digital economy (data elements, artificial intelligence, robots, autonomous driving), life and health direction (silver economy, innovative drugs), and "stuck neck" fields throughout the year.
Guosheng mentioned that the localization of new materials has risen, and the boom cycle of subdivided industries has arrived; The coal valuation repair is far from over, and the coking coal sector is expected to return as the king; Web3 opens the way to institutionalization; In the first year of intelligent driving, AI and Huawei's industries accelerated and diverged. Pig breeding is not extremely Tailai, and the layout is in advance to grasp the rhythm.
From the perspective of the industry, the release of the New Year** is a fixed operation of some brokerages in recent years, and CICC has also released the top ten ** of the year for eight consecutive years.
Looking ahead to 2024, CICC said that it will focus on three types of investment areas in the future: first, growth sectors that are supported by policies during the transition period and conform to the trend of innovative industries, such as semiconductors and communication equipment. In the pharmaceutical and new energy sectors, it is still necessary to pay attention to the marginal changes in industrial policies and fundamentals, but the valuation risk has been released more;
The second is to look for opportunities for demand to improve first or supply to clear from the bottom up, which may have greater flexibility to improve performance, such as automobiles and parts, oil and gas services, ** and navigation equipment;
Third, high-dividend assets with sufficient cash flow and continuous high dividends, such as telecommunication services, upstream resources and utilities.
However, a number of brokerage institutions also mentioned that there is great uncertainty in the economic and market changes throughout the year at the beginning of the year, and once there are events such as "black swan", "gray rhinoceros" and "roadblocks", it may change the conclusion of the top ten predictions.
Kunpeng Project