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Original title: Wang Chunying, Deputy Director General and Spokesperson of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, answers reporters' questions on the balance of payments in 2023.
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A few days ago, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange released the preliminary data of the balance of payments for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2023. Wang Chunying, deputy director and spokesperson of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, answered reporters' questions on relevant issues.
Q: What are the characteristics of China's balance of payments in 2023?
A: The preliminary data of the balance of payments show that China's balance of payments will remain basically balanced in 2023. Among them, the current account surplus was 264.2 billion US dollars, and the ratio of the surplus to the gross domestic product (GDP) in the same period was 15%, which continues to be in a reasonable equilibrium range; Cross-border capital flows have stabilized and improved, and investment in China has generally maintained a net inflow pattern.
First, the scale of the surplus of goods is the second highest in the past years. In 2023, China's balance of payments goods** surplus will be 608 billion US dollars, second only to the scale of surplus in 2022 and the second highest in history. Among them, the export of goods was 3,179.6 billion US dollars, and the import was 2,571.6 billion US dollars, both of which were at a historically high level. In 2023, China's economy will continue to recover, its external resilience will be enhanced, and the scale of import and export of goods will rise quarter by quarter, supporting China's current account to maintain a relatively large surplus.
Second, the operation of the service is more balanced. In 2023, China's service deficit will be 229.4 billion US dollars, showing an orderly recovery to the pre-epidemic level. On the one hand, travel and transportation are still the main deficit items of services. Among them, the travel deficit is 180.6 billion US dollars, and the scale of spending on studying abroad and travel has recovered to nearly 80% of 2019 levels. On the other hand, the service** surplus project continued to grow. Among them, the surplus of other business services such as consulting and advertising was 38 billion US dollars, which remained at a high level in recent years, an increase of 96% over 2019; The surplus in telecommunications, computer and information services was US$19.2 billion, up 8% from 2022 and up 14 times.
Third, there is a net inflow of investment in China. Among them, the net inflow of foreign equity direct investment was US$62.1 billion, and the net inflow in the fourth quarter increased significantly from the previous quarter. According to preliminary estimates, the net inflow of investment in China also showed a net inflow in the fourth quarter, reaching a nearly two-year high, and foreign investors continued to increase their holdings of domestic bonds by more than US$60 billion from September to December. The above shows that more foreign investors are investing in China and allocating RMB assets.
Looking forward to 2024, the favorable conditions for China's development are stronger than the unfavorable factors, and the basic trend of economic recovery and long-term improvement has not changed; Central banks in major advanced economies are widely expected to start a cycle of interest rate cuts, and external financial conditions are expected to ease even more. With the overall improvement of the internal and external environment, China's balance of payments has a better foundation and conditions to maintain a basic balance.