Since August 2021, coal stocks have sprung up like a headwind in the long bear market of A-shares, bringing huge gains to many prescient and intelligent investors. These investors have a unique vision and stand out from the crowd in a bear market, which is remarkable, admirable, and worth emulating. However, some people who are late to the eye, at this point in time, ** coal stocks, and have a very good vision of coal stocks, but it is really worrying.
If before August 21, investors in coal stocks were called investments, then now investors in coal stocks can only be called speculation. Let's talk about three reasons, whether it's right or not, at least let those investors who are now looking at coal stock prices every day, and have the impulse of coal stocks to calm down:
First, coal stocks are cyclical stocks, and their performance is typical M-shaped, and their performance is different from the 45-degree and 30-degree oblique angle of growth stocks, and the performance trend of coal stocks cannot be linearly extrapolated.
I have listed the net profit, ROE and dividend data of the top ten coal stocks in the past five years from 2018 to 2022, whether it is the most bullish Shenhua or other coal stocks in the past three years, the net profit, ROE and dividend amount in the past three years are only about half of the 22 years at most, and most of them are not even half, investors cannot infer future data with the data of the peak of the 22-year cyclical performance (high performance growth, high ROE, high dividends), Such a high growth, such a high ROE, and such a large dividend are not sustainable.
Second, the logic of this wave of coal stocks at the beginning of 21 years is caused by the sharp rise in coal prices due to tight supply and demand due to many international and domestic reasons, with Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, in October 21 to express his views: from the perspective of coal, the current coal price in China is at a historical high, "on the demand side, the power growth from January to August this year is particularly fast, and the demand for coal is large."
On the supply side, due to environmental protection and other factors, mining has declined, coupled with the fact that commodities such as oil and gas are in the first place worldwide, which has also boosted the rise of coal to a certain extent. "With the changes in the international situation, as well as the corresponding measures taken to increase the demand and reduce the demand, the situation of tight coal supply will continue to improve, and the price of coal will naturally fall, in the face of the high rigidity of electricity prices, the fall of coal prices is inevitable.
Third, and most importantly, I would like to list the magnitude of the top 10 coal stocks by market capitalization from August 2021 to the present (some of them have been a lot before August 21) as follows (especially since the increase was made in August 21, which is the background of many high-quality ***50%-70% of the big bear market):
China Shenhua ** nearly 4 times, Shaanxi Coal Industry rose about 4 times, Yankuang Energy rose about 4 times, China Coal Energy rose 2 times, Lu'an Huan Energy ** nearly 3 times, Shanxi coking coal ** increased about 2 times, Huaibei Mining rose 2 times, Shanmei International rose 5 times, Huayang shares rose nearly 1 times, Suneng shares are new shares, there is no data.
In short, since August 21, A-share coal stocks have almost unanimously continued**, and recently entered the final sprint stage, rushing up sharply and crowding funds, and at this time, many latecomers, including some institutions, are chasing after the stock price.
Looking at the fierce ** stock price, who doesn't have the slightest impulse, but calmly analyze, the risk is rising, the opportunity is falling, the height is cold, and returning to common sense is the right way to invest.