Kissinger: China's rise is inevitable, and the United States and Russia should cooperate
Kissinger: An in-depth analysis of the global landscape and future trends.
Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, 99, predicted that China would surpass the United States in the near future. He was a key figure in the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, a mediator in the Vietnam War, and is known as the greatest secretary of state and diplomatic expert in American history.
Kissinger enjoys great prestige around the world, and his remarks have attracted much attention. In a recent interview, he focused on three issues: the internal contradictions of the United States, the development of China, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
His prophecy sparked a lot of discussion and reflection.
At present, the United States is facing serious domestic contradictions. Although the United States has been revered as the world's leading superpower since World War II, no country has surpassed it in terms of economic development, infrastructure development, and military might.
Over time, however, the once considered invulnerable superpower has also developed problems such as industrial hollowing, inflation, and racial discrimination, which are also inevitable products of American development.
It seems that the United States is not invincible.
In the post-World War II United States, corporate mergers intensified, the agricultural population declined, and the economy gradually shifted to capital-intensive, laying the groundwork for the later hollowing out of industry. The development of globalization has shrunk the overseas market of the United States, and the problems of manufacturing are beginning to emerge.
In 1973 and 1979, the United States experienced two economic crises, and since then, the evil consequences of the hollowing out of traditional industries have gradually emerged.
The U.S. manufacturing industry has undergone tremendous changes since entering the 21st century. Low-cost manufacturing is gradually moving overseas, and high-tech technology has become an important force in promoting national development.
However, the outbreak of the 2008 financial crisis made the United States realize that over-reliance on high-tech industries is not fully immune to sudden risks. At this time, the United States began to reflect and adjust its strategy, putting forward the slogan of "manufacturing return" to meet new challenges.
Although the GDP growth curve of the United States is climbing, the proportion of manufacturing industry has been running at a low level for a long time, and it seems that it is difficult to reverse the trend of industrial hollowing. In 2021, the U.S. GDP was 2302 trillion, the proportion of manufacturing is 1115%, and China's total GDP in the same year, the manufacturing industry accounted for 274%。
Back in 2020, the U.S. GDP was 20955 trillion, down 33%, and the proportion of manufacturing is even lower to less than 11%. This data reveals the fragility and instability of the U.S. manufacturing industry, and the consequences of industrial hollowing out go far beyond that, and its subsequent effects will still cause many problems for the United States.
Due to the underdevelopment of the manufacturing industry, the United States needs to import a large number of daily goods, which not only affects the lives of ordinary people, but also makes the employment problem difficult, because the decline in manufacturing jobs makes it difficult for many ordinary people to find jobs.
This phenomenon is a ripple effect triggered by the shortcomings of the manufacturing industry.
Inflation in the United States continues to climb, and the latest data shows that it has reached an all-time high. There are three main reasons behind it: first, the international energy caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict has pushed up the cost of living; Second, the impact of the epidemic on the economy has caused an imbalance between supply and demand, which has also increased price pressures. Finally, the Fed has been issuing more dollars in response to the economic downturn, which has further pushed up inflation.
As a major energy exporter, Russia has been frantically sanctioned by Western countries due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has affected its domestic energy industry. Not only that, but this sanction has not only damaged Russia's economy, but also affected the world's energy **, and the United States has not been spared.
Data show that in April this year, prices in the United States fell by 83%, and in May it reached 86%。Such energy ** has risen wildly, which greatly reduces the value of money.
Under the epidemic, the US economy has been hit hard, and the number of unemployed people has climbed. Trump's inaction has led to the disruption of the industrial chain, countless infections, and medical resources are stretched.
The American people are in agony and grieving, and they are helplessly asking, "How many more people do we have to sacrifice?" "In 2020, the U.S. GDP **34%, * down 7%.
The U.S. Federal Reserve System has turned on money printing mode, causing everyday items** to soar and inflation to a 40-year high. Trump's approval rating has plummeted due to his poor response to the pandemic.
When Biden took office in 2021, despite the global focus on China-Russia relations, the domestic inflation problem has not been properly handled, and the United States may face a greater crisis.
In 2020, a massive "anti-racism" demonstration broke out in the United States, which was caused by the death of George Floyd, a black man. This demonstration caused a chain reaction that led to the emergence of racial discrimination in the United States and society.
The demonstrations even spilled over into the White House, where Trump was twice rushed to the White House's underground fortresses. So, how serious is the problem of racial discrimination in the United States?
In the history of the United States, there has been a clear racial distinction between public places such as homes, transportation, and toilets in certain areas, and even if the system of racial segregation was legally abolished, racial segregation was still ubiquitous, and the chaotic Chicago and Detroit were vivid portrayals of this phenomenon.
The chart shows that the whiter neighborhoods are, the lighter the blue, and the darker the shaded blue in the neighborhoods with the higher the percentage of people of color, which has clearly revealed the phenomenon of "racial division" in the Detroit metropolitan area.
The United States has always adhered to the concept of "white supremacy", which makes blacks unable to compare with whites in terms of work and various rights. In **, Trump also relied on the concept of "white supremacy" to finally win.
This phenomenon is somewhat similar to the caste system in India, but the situation is slightly better, but only slightly better.
The domestic problems of the United States have long been highlighted, and Kissinger is not only concerned about this problem, but also faces up to the seriousness of the two parties in the United States. The fierce competition between the two parties has directly led to a situation of mutual distrust.
This phenomenon began with the defeat in the Vietnam War and continued through the Obama administration, where the competition escalated.
At a meeting during the Obama administration, a Republican congressman put it bluntly: "He's lying!" This incident is only a microcosm of partisan conflict, and to this day, partisan rivalry in the United States continues and even intensifies.
As a result of this state, there have been two very different voices in the United States, and this is the deepest root problem in the United States. After all, problems such as the epidemic and inflation can be solved through economic means, but the real beginning of the country's decline is the lack of unity of people in the country.
In contrast, China's speed has been constantly catching up and surpassing.
Kissinger stressed that the systems of China and the United States are completely different and cannot be compared, and that China will not follow the example of the Western system. China and the United States are competitors, and China may surpass the United States in the future, which is detrimental to the United States, because this will threaten the hegemony of the United States.
China's pursuit of common prosperity and economic globalization has no intention of becoming a world hegemon, but if it becomes stronger, it may influence the hegemonic behavior of the United States in the international community. Therefore, the United States wants to prevent this from happening.
Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, China's rapid development has been amazing. What are China's advantages? The status of the "factory of the world", the third largest military power, the second largest economy in the world. More importantly, China's national unity and absence of partisan disputes.
China's position as the "world's factory" is irreplaceable by any country.
The strength of our military personnel should not be underestimated, and the number of active military personnel has reached 2 million, of which the army accounts for the majority, about 1.5 million. We have always maintained an attitude of being prepared for danger in times of peace, and regularly conducted actual combat exercises to ensure that the army is in the best condition at all times.
Although our combat strength is not as great as the ambition and pride of "every inch of mountains and rivers, every inch of blood, 100,000 young men and 100,000 soldiers," every soldier is a precious armament force of our country. Our military spending is also increasing year by year.
According to 2021 data, China's expenditure reached 212.1 billion US dollars, which is not as good as the United States, but it is still in the leading position in the world. This shows that we attach great importance to national defense construction and are firmly determined.
China's strategic bomber H-6, unsheathed in a state of war, can deter the enemy. At the same time, China's first-class equipment has also been significantly upgraded, including the latest launched"Fujian ship"Aircraft carriers, Dongfeng missiles, 055 destroyers, nuclear **, atomic bombs, etc.
The power of these equipment should not be underestimated, among the bombers in service, there are only seven in the world, among which the strategic bomber of China's H-6 is even more outstanding, capable of crossing thousands of rivers and mountains, accurately reaching the head of the enemy, and can also carry nuclear **, descending like death.
These ** equipment show China's military strength, which is amazing. "
China's economic development is unstoppable. In 2021, China's total GDP continued to grow, accounting for 18% of the world's total** GDP, compared to 24% in the United States.
It is worth mentioning that due to the promotion of the "Belt and Road" initiative, the cooperation between China and ASEAN countries has deepened, and in 2020, ASEAN surpassed the EU for the first time to become China's largest partner.
The emergence of this milestone is a further proof of the deep cooperative relationship between China and ASEAN. Therefore, China has the potential to surpass the United States, both in terms of economic strength and in terms of the depth of cooperation.
However, China does not act only for the sake of hegemony, as the United States does, and this is one of the reasons why the United States is worried. Against this backdrop, a joint U.S.-Russian strategy may become a viable solution to contain China.
However, this needs to take into account China's great power and its influence in the international community. Therefore, any action needs to be carefully considered and balanced against various factors.
Kissinger once proposed that the United States and Russia should work together to confront China. However, since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the actions of the United States and other Western countries have attracted the attention of the outside world.
But the United States is also concerned about one thing, and that is the close cooperation between China and Russia. In fact, despite the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the energy ** between China and Russia has not been affected, and China has not imposed any sanctions on Russia.
Russia and China are second only to the United States in military power in the world, and if they join forces, they will pose a threat to American hegemony. Although the Russia-Ukraine conflict may end, due to the sanctions imposed on Russia by Western countries, both sides may not be able to conduct normal diplomacy and activities for a long time.
Therefore, it is an inevitable fact that cooperation between China and Russia will become even closer. In this case, the two countries will renew their search for energy partners.
In order to avoid a joint effort between China and Russia, Kissinger proposed a strategy to win over Russia. However, the current tension between the United States and Russia is already very tense, and there is no deep hatred between China and Russia, so it is not easy to undermine the relationship between China and Russia.
Although the alliance between the United States and Russia seems out of reach, before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Putin repeatedly proposed joining NATO in an attempt to improve relations between Russia and Western countries.
After all, relations between countries often depend on the amount of interest. Today because of the interests of the **, tomorrow may be because of the interests of the old good.