News of Russia's major victory in Ukraine is coming, but new challenges are looming behind the scenes. Azerbaijan Aliyev met with Ukrainian Zelensky and made it clear that he supports Ukraine's territorial sovereignty. Earlier, Raisi also expressed support for peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan in order to maintain strategic security in the Caucasus. Russia, while making progress in Ukraine, faces a gradual erosion of influence in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan, with the support of Turkey, once again achieved a military victory over Armenia, to which Armenia was disappointed by Russia's reaction. In the South Caucasus, Russia's position is gradually in jeopardy, and the power of various countriesGamblingIncreasingly intense.
Russia's recent breakthrough in Ukraine, notably in the battle for Avdeyevka, has demonstrated its military prowess in the region. In the South Caucasus, however, Russia is gradually losing its entrenched position. The South Caucasus includes three countries: Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, where Russia's influence is waning. Azerbaijan, in particular, has severed ties with Russia and become part of Turkey's sphere of influence, thanks to Turkey's long-standing support. Azerbaijan under Aliyev defeated Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 and seized the moment to achieve another victory over Armenia in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Russia's response to this has been impressive, but it has shocked Armenia.
Russia is now mired in the war between Russia and Ukraine, and it is difficult to take care of the affairs of the South Caucasus. MoscowIt is impossible to easily open a second front in the South Caucasus for direct confrontation with Azerbaijan and Turkey. While Armenia has lost the Nagorno-Karabakh region, it is also worried that Azerbaijan will continue to expand its power. While Russia is making a big noise, Armenia is feeling isolated and seeking external support. On the one hand, it is to strengthen ties with the West, and on the other hand, it is relying on Iran for help. Iran does not want Azerbaijan to open up the Zangezur corridor and disrupt the strategic balance in the Caucasus, so it actively speaks out and becomes a new substitute for regional influence. Azerbaijan is also seeking external support, engaging with the West and showing positive gestures, further complicating the situation in the South Caucasus.
South CaucasusGeopoliticsGamblingAs the competition intensifies, countries seek to maximize their own interests. Armenia is in a diplomatic dilemma, with Western and Iranian support key to its strategic choices. Azerbaijan, for its part, has found opportunities in its relations with the West to seek more space for its own development. Russia lost its original dominant position in the process, and the fate of the South Caucasus is gradually moving in a new direction. Every diplomatic meeting, every military action, will determine the fate of a country and even an entire region. Countries that lose influence may face permanent marginalization, while countries that seize opportunities risk reshaping the region.
In the South CaucasusGeopoliticsGambling, Russia is at risk of losing influence. Azerbaijan is growing stronger with the support of Turkey, while Armenia is looking for space to survive with the support of the West and Iran. Russia's victory and loss are intertwined, and behind it is the convergence of national interests and geostrategy. The fate of the South Caucasus is at a new crossroads, and the choices of each country will have a profound impact on the regional landscape, and whether Russia can regain its lost influence is a key question at present.