Niu Wenxin, chief commentator of China Economic Weekly.
Some time ago, some financial commentators desperately tied the RMB exchange rate to the trend of the a** field, believing that if the RMB depreciates, the a** field will fall. The rationale for such comments is that a depreciation of the renminbi means an outflow of capital, which will "fall due to blood loss". Such a view has affected many A-share investors for a while, and some investors even watched the rise and fall of the U.S. dollar index to trade A-shares. This kind of misleading "herd effect" may allow the RMB exchange rate to affect the performance of the A** market, and we should be highly vigilant against this.
If the eurozone economy collapses and leads to a **field**, do you believe it? If you don't believe it, why do you believe in the U.S. dollar index**, A**field must be**? Let's take a look at the logic here, if the eurozone economy collapses or is far less strong than the US economy, the foreign exchange market is bound to show a "depreciation of the euro against the dollar", given the high weight of the euro in the basket of currencies in the dollar index, so the euro against the dollar ** will lead to the dollar index **, and the dollar index ** is likely to cause the yuan to depreciate against the dollar. May I ask: Does this matter have anything to do with China's economic fundamentals? Does it have anything to do with the fundamentals of Chinese listed companies? How can it be said that the relative depreciation of the US dollar index and the RMB must be the result of capital outflows?
Therefore, it is resolutely opposed to the ** comment highlighting the role of the "RMB exchange rate" and "northbound funds".
The appreciation and depreciation of the US dollar is generally based on whether the US dollar index rises or falls, but there is no RMB in the basket of currencies in the US dollar index. Why do you want to use such a factor to discuss the rise and fall of the A** field?
What's even more strange is that not long ago, the dollar index ** and the RMB appreciated at the same time, but the performance of the A** field was not good, in this case, why did no one say: "The appreciation of the RMB means the inflow of foreign capital, and the A** field should rise"? Therefore, we should understand that the current economic environment of China is extremely complex, and everyone must keep a clear mind and carefully identify the possible malice behind all kinds of seemingly correct logic.
Now we can see that some financial ** are still "flickering" the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and the rise and fall of A-shares. This is obviously still Zhang Guan Li Dai.
Editor-in-charge: Yao Kun.