Ukrainian exports of wheat, corn, barley and rye are likely to reach the levels of the same period last year, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Kyiv office. Wheat shipments in MY 2023-2024 are forecast at 17.7 million mt, up 3% from the previous year's estimate, the report shows. Corn exports are expected to increase by 8% year-on-year to 29.2 million tonnes.
Barley exports are now expected to be 3.3 million tonnes, up 22 percent, and rye exports are now expected to be 170,000 tonnes, up more than ninefold, according to the USDA.
Iranian-backed Houthis have been attacking ships in the Red Sea, wreaking havoc on vital shipping lanes.
"Concerns about the transit of the Red Sea do not seem to have had a significant impact on Ukrainian exports, and according to exporters, the situation has only slightly increased bulk freight rates," the commissioner's report said. "The investment and efficiency of the Danube export route and the transshipment capacity of the Romanian port of Constanta continue to increase, providing additional opportunities to maintain export levels. ”
The USDA stressed that its estimates do not take into account the additional damage that could result from an attack by Russian forces on ports or ships. However, an increase in exports will lead to a significant reduction in inventories. All cereal stocks at the end of the 2023-2024 marketing year are likely to fall to 5 million mt, down 50 percent from the previous year, the agency said.
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