As mentioned in the last episode, the dust has settled in the Xinhan primary: on the Republican side, Haley won few votes, but refused to withdraw from the election and went south to his hometown of South Carolina; Trump received a record majority of the votes, but he was furious and banned Haley donors from joining the Maga movement.
There are still opinions on whether Aizhou and Xinhan have locked in the primary election results, but the pattern of the major vote bases and the public opinion they represent has surfaced, and it is time to start trying to count the votes. Too early, right? The primary election is undecided, can you count the votes**? Fun, right? This episode will talk about Biden first, and Trump in the next episode. Come and see. （Click to see the **, there are **, charts, maps, information videos
Click**: Trump wins Xinhan, Biden is happy? -2024**17b has two**Ming: 1Moderators don't have full control over the display of comments, and if they can't see their own comments, it's not that the moderators block them; 2.A micro-friend asked, can you write a special collection on some difficult issues, such as Israeli settlements, illegal immigration in the United States, political correctness, and partisanship? The answer is, yes, there is some workload, it will take some time, thank you very much.
When it comes to topic selection, some topics are simple and obvious, a few sentences in one report are enough, some are complex and hidden, not ready-made, and need enough research and analysis, and some seem simple, but in fact have depth, and often need multiple episodes if they are expanded. It's always a good thing to have more topics, and when it's difficult, you're more motivated, write them one by one, slowly analyze and restore, write and write, read and read, and it will become clearer and clearer.
Mini-questionnaire in this episode: 2024, Biden.
a.Lose no matter what; b.Too old, demented, so hard to win; c.Poor policy and political performance, and low support rate; d.Except for their old age, most accept re-election; e.Even if you are old, you will still win in the end; f.There will be a fierce battle, and in the end it will be won; g.Even if you can't win re-election, you will still be honored if you lose; h.It's hard to say.
New Rare Recruitment
Biden did not participate in the New Hand primary, and the 2024 Democratic Party primary is reformed, and the DNC official arranged the first stop to go straight to South Carolina, where Biden turned defeat into victory four years ago, and the election will start on February 3.
But under New Hampland's election law, both parties must hold their first national primaries simultaneously. Despite the fact that the results were not all signed by DNC, the state Democrats still spontaneously called for nominations on the spot to start the election as scheduled. After the 8 p.m. vote was opened, Biden was quickly declared the winner. In the final vote count, Biden received 63 of more than 120,000 votes9%, and challenger Dean Philips received 196%。
Subsequently, Biden stated that since then, Trump has clearly become the Republican nominee, ** opponent, and called on the people of the country to unite against Trump and defend the United States. The Biden team could not hide its elation, aimed at Trump, and began to enter the ** state, and important key operators were transferred from the White House to the campaign headquarters, and the election campaign officially began.
Wait, why are you elated against Trump? Is it because you don't have to play against Haley? Indeed, the Republican primaries on the opposite side are not over, and polls show that Trump's only challenger, Nikki Haley, can win Biden if he makes the cut. But what if Haley turns the tables and wins against Trump? Isn't it a reversal to turn on the ** mode before the primary election is over?
Inevitable?
Haley's victory in the primary election is regarded as a small probability, so take the Sichuan-Bai rematch battle as a scenario to preview the first prospect. Generally speaking, it is difficult to win or lose, and polling agencies and professional analysts and commentators have looked away many times, because there are state electoral colleges, because one state votes, one district and one district, because there are third parties and fourth parties. Overlapping, unknown plus unknown, complex plus complex. Of course, it's better to see if the outcome is unknown, than to know the ending before it starts.
In 2024**, the focus is still on Trump: Can you win the primary nomination? Can you win the ** restoration? There are two popular opinions:1Trump's nomination and victory are inevitable; 2.Trump can win the nomination, but not **. In fact, there are many uncertainties in the primary election, from more than a dozen candidates rushing up, to the Sichuan-Sea confrontation, there are finally only two possibilities, as detailed in the last episode.
Click**: Why is Trump afraid of Haley? Who is afraid of whom if Hailey does not retreat? -2024**17a If Haley vs. Biden, it's a bit like 1992 Clinton challenging Bush Sr.: The new challenge is the old. But Clinton's campaign slogan was "For the people, for change, the people first." Economy, economy, hear no! for people，for change！putting people first. it's the economy stupid!Haley is not suitable, so he can only say in general terms "stand for America".
Well, Trump has a better chance of winning in the primary, so if you meet again, can you defeat Biden and shame 2020?
Biden picks up leaks?
Among the reasons why Trump is unwilling to lose in 2020, in addition to his love for power and fear of being liquidated, but also because he looks down on Biden: he actually let that person pick up this big leak! Biden lost the primary until South Carolina was finalized,** and the skeptics were reluctant but had to accept the result.
One thing is for sure, no matter whether he wins or loses, Trump is the male number one, Biden won 2020, and Trump is the biggest reason and the strongest promoter: a record ** vote and 7 million votes to win, all because of the fear of Trump continuing to govern, the independent vote is especially one-sided. In 2024, the independent vote is still one-sided, indicating that the fear of Sichuan and the rejection of Sichuan are still strong. Even if most people don't want to see a repeat of Trump, if it does, most are unlikely to accept Trump's restoration. If there is a choice, then Haley is younger, and if there is no election, Biden is not bad.
The ceiling of Trump's victory rate is too low, which makes Reagan Republicans worried, and the refusal of a big man to endorse Trump, and the continuous donation and funding give Haley a reason to refuse to withdraw from the election. The Reagan Party did not want Haley to leave early, so what would happen if he withdrew? Trump's bunch of lawsuits is a ticking time bomb. Florida Governor Desans, known as the "Trump Trumpet", withdrew from the election on the eve of the New Han primary, and then switched to Trump, and publicly expressed his concern about Trump's ceiling after the New Han primary.
Haley's refusal to withdraw from the election not only continued to consume Trump's resources, making it impossible for him to integrate all the Republican Party's resources to deal with Biden, but also had to fight on two fronts under the attack of Haley and Biden. Haley is in a big trouble, standing tall, continuing to contain, waiting for an opportunity to pick up leaks, but the real threat is not only that. What is that?
Chuanhai teamed up?
Will there be a Sichuan and sea match? Haley insisted never. Chuanhai sounds good, but the longer the primary election drags on, the more tragic the fight, and the more difficult it is to compromise and reconcile. Haley no longer has scruples and forbearance, and publicly responds to Trump's non-stop dirty and brutal personal attacks, and Trump's anger and resentment are increasing day by day.
If Kagawa scored twice, it is bound to repeat the three-way entanglement of 2016**: at that time, the Socialist Sanders stirred up the situation, Sangpan or refused to vote or vote for Sichuan, and Mrs. Hillary Clinton's dream was shattered. I had previously suspected that Obama's left-wing and Socialist's far-left were disrupting Biden's re-election, but now that Obama and Biden are on the same side, if Sanders fights in 2024, who will do it?
Click**: Blue Camp Crisis: 2016 Sanders, 2024 Obama? - 2024**12 Look at it now, it won't be Obama, it's more likely Haley. Haley and Sanders, the two are completely mirror images: she also gained a large area of support, but also refused to withdraw from the election, if the sea is seriously hostile to Trump, how many people would rather refuse to vote and vote for Biden? In case Haley is nominated for the nomination, Aichuan does not love the Republican Party's Trump base will also be sabotaged desperately, I don't know how many will refuse to vote or even reverse to vent their anger, Trump will play Sanders II. So, looking at it now, even if Trump wins the primary, another win is still far from inevitable. For Biden, whether the opponent is Sichuan or Haihai, it is a favorable pattern: Sichuan and Hai coordinate to help Biden?
Fear of the river and rejection of the river
After a year of fighting in the Republican primary, Biden finally launched the ** operation, and there are three main reasons why he is more willing to play against Trump: the people are afraid of Sichuan, the Reagan Party rejects Sichuan, and too many things have happened so far when the middle vote is one-sided, and Trump's fear has become a common heart disease, which has nothing to do with policy, party, and ideology, it is absolutely crazy, which Haley called "chaos".
In contrast, Biden seems to be at least more calm, so it is better to be stable than chaotic, and the Sichuan chaos must not be repeated never again. The Reagan Party wants to regain and revitalize the Republican Party, and end the tragedy of being kidnapped by Trump for many years, unable to win the election, and in power. Its main George Conway single-handedly planned the E Jean Carroll v. Trump ** case, the defamation penalty ended on Friday, and the second trial ended on Friday, following the first jury awarded a fine of 5 million, this time the jury sentenced a staggering 83.3 million, adding to the huge pressure on Trump's judicial compensation.
The six relatives of the middle ticket do not recognize, as long as they live a normal life. The United States' largest union, the United States Auto Workers UAW endorsement station Biden, said that the United States' GDP growth in 2023 reached a staggering 31%, the Chinese people feel that they are beginning to pick up, and various economic indicators indicate that 2024 will be another good year. "Biden's rule"? Is Biden's re-election starting to be optimistic?
Biden post-hair?
There is a commotion on the left to overthrow Biden because of Israel and other reasons, but the Socialist Party votes should be seriously less than moderate votes and independent votes. What if you add to that the moderate vote of the Republican Party that is afraid of Sichuan? Because of the general phobia of Sichuan, the turnout will not be too low, and the high turnout is generally beneficial to the blue camp. As for the third-party candidates, especially Robert Kennedy Jr, Kennedy's nephew, who is gaining momentum, it is still to be seen that the main representatives are dissatisfied with the rematch of Chuan Bai, and the effect of the split between the two camps remains to be seen.
There are concerns about Biden's sluggish campaign, but supporters see Biden's late-mover advantage. Four years ago today, Biden himself had not yet qualified to win the nomination, but he won after the fall**. The economic and diplomatic situation is gradually improving, waiting for the opponent's primary election to determine the opponent, determine the main target, and start to launch in full force, Biden is slowly entering the market.
In other words, the poll said that most people don't want to fight again. Looking for a substitution? But others have tried, but it doesn't work, it's just Chuanbai. So, what are the advantages of Chuanbai? The next episode is dedicated to the Sichuan-Bai battle, which scored twice, compared with the advantages of Sichuan Bai, and counted the votes one by one.
What do you think? Let's talk in the comment area. Welcome to pay attention to "The Wind Sings and Picks Up the Sun", different anecdotes, casual gossip, straight to the essence, and back to the point. I'm Feng Ming, see you next time.