The wave of bankruptcies in the United States warns the response of the People's Bank of China
All sides in the United States seem to be celebrating the victory, and finally there will be no recession, and the economy has achieved a soft landing.
However, something unexpected happened, and small and medium-sized banks in the United States, especially some community banks, were in danger of being dragged into another wave of bankruptcies.
At the same time as this black swan suddenly arrived, the liquidity of the US money market was also sharply reduced.
Will this crisis affect the whole world? Will the crisis affect China? Our answer is that the PBOC's RRR cut has already been officially implemented.
What are the details? It has to be said that the recent series of economic data released by the United States should indeed make every American feel fortunate, because the American economy does not seem to need to go through a difficult period of recession.
The Fed focuses on two pieces of data when analyzing the economy: inflation data and labor force data.
The consumer consumption index** released at the end of January increased by just 2 percent year-on-year9%。This is the slowest increase since March 2021 and is not only lower than the previous month, but also below market expectations.
Non-farm payrolls, which were announced in early February, rose by a massive 3530,000, the largest increase since the beginning of last year. Last month's numbers were also higher than expected.
What does that mean?
This means that inflation is under control and the price rate is getting lower and lower. At the same time, employment is better than expected, and the economy does not appear to be affected by rising interest rates.
The Fed's Kashkari said that although inflation has not yet reached its target, much progress has been made. What's more, he confirmed that there will be no recession this year.
Another Harker also said that it is right not to cut rates at this time, as the data shows that inflation is slowing and employment looks more balanced.
But the reality is that the U.S.**'s focus on economic data may be too mechanical, ignoring many economic phenomena.
Just as there is no ** warning of the recent crisis at the New York Community Bank, it seems that as long as the crisis is out of sight, it does not exist.
The Federal Reserve's decision not to cut interest rates in January dashed market expectations, and New York Community Bank shares have plummeted**, 60% in just a few trading days, and are now trading at just over $4.
This situation reflects the stock prices of several banks, including Silicon Valley Bank, before the collapse last year**.
At a time when the United States is celebrating its victory at all levels, this black swan may bring a sudden shock to the American economy. Because the loss of the New York community bank is enough to show that the hole in commercial real estate lending in the United States is getting bigger and bigger. And these are the devastating consequences of the Fed's continued interest rate hikes.
Perhaps the pace of this rate hike is so fast that the negative impact of the upcoming rate hike has not yet been felt, which is why the US economy is still being thought to be doing well.
In fact, other data suggest that liquidity in the US money market is gradually decreasing.
At present, the size of the latest overnight reverse repurchase agreement is only 532.4 billion yuan, compared with 552.2 billion yuan the previous day and 704.8 billion yuan on January 3. From these data, it can be seen that the size of the overnight reverse repo agreements in use continues to shrink.
If we go back a little further, we can also see that the data for the beginning of December was 88,782.2 billion yuan, compared to 11$3.8 billion.
This scale of use is affected by the supply and demand of market funds. Currently, a decrease in the use of funds indicates that funds are very scarce, so the constant withdrawals of the Federal Reserve have led to a decrease in the use of funds.
In the face of these economic phenomena, the idea that the United States has already made a soft landing is overly optimistic.
In order to avoid the impact of the U.S. liquidity crisis on our country, our central bank implemented a round of comprehensive interest rate cuts on February 5, with a total of 05 percentage points, releasing more than $1 billion to the market.
Now we must be very vigilant that the current situation in the United States is similar to that of 2006-2007, and that if illusions about a soft landing in the United States are shattered, there is a high probability that the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008 will be repeated.
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