Don't misjudge the property market, save money this year and next year or buy a house? 3 sentences to reveal the answer
In the hustle and bustle of the city, home has become a key factor affecting everyone's happiness. It is not only closely related to the love and marriage of young people, but also has a profound impact on the education and health benefits of children. Nowadays, high housing prices have become a problem for young people, not only affecting their love and marriage choices, but also suppressing their desire to have children.
Imagine, how can a young man get married with peace of mind and take on the responsibility of raising children in the face of high housing prices and strong economic pressure? In one program, there are experts who make it clear that if a family wants to have three children, the first priority is to solve the housing problem. In fact, if the housing problem is not solved, it will be difficult to fall in love and get married, let alone have children.
For many young people, buying a home tends to wait until they are close to the age of 30. By then, they may no longer have the enthusiasm and energy to think about getting married and having children. So if we want to encourage people to have two or three children, we have to solve the housing problem first. It is only when people have a stable place to live that they will have the confidence to marry and take on family responsibilities.
Looking back on the past two decades, the sustainability of real estate is obvious to all. Although there have been brief periods** in between, each time the house price will quickly rise to a new high. This also means that in the past, people didn't have much opportunity to buy their ideal home at a lower level. Some even believe that now is the best time to buy a home, and the sooner the better.
However, after entering 2020, under the influence of real estate market regulation policies, China's real estate industry began to be restricted. In September 2021, the average property price also started to decline. But a few years later, and heading into 2024, the real estate market still shows no signs of improvement.
Over the past three years, China's real estate** has actually seen a long-awaited decline. While the average house price has dropped from $11,000 per square metre to around $9,600 per square metre, most areas excluding home prices** have seen significant declines.
Many people may think that only third- and fourth-tier cities have house prices**, but in reality, the suburbs of first- and second-tier cities have seen a bigger drop in house prices. For example, housing prices in the suburbs of Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Chengdu, Harbin and other cities are generally about 30%, and some real estate prices have fallen by more than 50%. For consumers who really need to buy a house, the current house prices are indeed very favorable.
Moreover, since 2023, several policies have been introduced in various regions to support the real estate market. Mortgage interest rates and down payment ratios have fallen to record lows, and some areas have introduced home purchase subsidies, further reducing the cost of buying a home.
However, due to the current market environment and property market policies similar to 2015, many people are worried that house prices will be ** again. After all, after 2015, the property market has been significantly lower. But I would like to remind everyone to stop speculating about the future trend of the property market!
This is because the current market environment and property market policies are fundamentally different from those in 2015. Nowadays, China's housing resources seem to be in short supply, housing resources are abundant, and people have enough time to choose a house. This has been rare in the past, as evidenced by a recent statement from the top of the hierarchy"These 3 signs"。
1) With the advancement of the comprehensive commercialization reform of housing, the market positioning of commercial housing is undergoing profound changes and is no longer regarded as a necessity of life. Since the reform, commercial housing has occupied a dominant position in the market. For the past two decades, buying a commercial home has been a major option for people who want to own their own home. This has promoted the rapid development of China's real estate industry, and basically solved the problem of shortage of housing resources in just over 20 years. However, this has also led to an increase in the number of commercial houses, and in some areas there is even a surplus of housing resources.
However, in real life, there are still many citizens, including but not limited to the economically weaker groups and the middle class, facing the dilemma of buying or renting a house. At present, China's rental market is still immature, and the relevant regulations have not yet been perfected, and renting life has become a problem for many people. In order to solve this problem, the state is trying to provide rental housing through multiple channels, such as building a 70-square-meter small rental house for young urban people and new citizens. This indicates that once these rental properties are on the market, many young people may choose to rent instead of buying commercial housing with heavy debt, thus greatly reducing the demand for commercial housing.
2.The implementation of the main responsibility of the city and the establishment of a long-term mechanism for real estate regulation and control have become realistic requirements, and we have put forward them"Stabilize land prices, house prices, and expectations"goals. This indicates that land prices and housing prices will remain stable in the future, which will break the expectation that housing prices will continue to be the best. Although some cities are still trying to rely on the real estate industry to drive economic development and relax the regulation of the real estate market through the implementation of the main responsibility of the city, if the long-term mechanism is not in place, or there is a behavior of driving GDP through real estate, they will be held accountable in accordance with the law. Since 2023, many places have introduced rescue policies to stabilize the property market, but these policies have not stimulated housing prices**. Our country has always adhered to it"Housing is not speculation"principles. Most people have realized that the benefits of owning a property will gradually decrease, so many people are starting to have extra properties in their hands. As Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said"Housing is not speculation"It is the basic policy of real estate regulation.
3.In"Demolition restrictions"At the same time, promote and implement the transformation of old communities. In the past, shantytown reconstruction and demolition have improved the living environment of many residents in old communities, but at the same time, a large number of demolition households have also been born, and a large number of shantytown reconstruction funds have poured into the real estate market, resulting in irrational housing prices. Nowadays, most of the houses built in the early days of the founding of our country have been demolished, and the remaining old houses are mainly dilapidated due to age, rather than quality problems. Therefore, the old house renovation policy came into being to improve the living environment of residents by renovating old communities.
It can be seen that the basic pattern of the real estate market is changing. Although there is still a surplus of housing resources in some areas, the state is taking measures to regulate and stabilize the market. For 2023, the choice between buying a house and investing is clear: if you already own a home, it is advisable to save money and wait for new investment opportunities; If you are a buyer who just needs to buy a house, the current political environment and housing prices are suitable for buying a house; For investment needs, it is necessary to be cautious, and second-hand houses with high property service levels are preferred; If possible, you can also consider properties in central locations.