Text |Value Planet Bamboo Inscription.Sora was born, earning enough attention from film and television people, and also filling the film and television industry with a sense of anxiety.Edit |Maggie.
Although the Spring Festival stalls achieved a record-breaking 801.6 billion yuan at the box office, but half of the 8 Spring Festival movies ended gloomily - "Let's Shake the Sun Together" and "Mr. Red Carpet" were withdrawn one after another, which shows that the needs of users in the film and television market are becoming more and more complex and diverse.
Another thing that makes the film and television industry anxious is that on February 15, OpenAI on the other side of the ocean released the generative AI model Sora. Its specialty is the ability to generate up to 60 seconds of ** with text commands, creating realistic images such as a fashionable woman walking through the streets of Tokyo and a mammoth walking on a snowy field.
When people use AI tools to turn abstract words into concrete images, a new era of visual storytelling may be using, and it will have a profound impact on multiple industries.
Some people believe that SORA will accelerate the arrival of the era of "everyone as a director", and then it will take away the jobs that originally belonged to some film and television people, and some people even shouted that "filmmakers will be unemployed". However, some people believe that SORA's current limitations are not enough to support the vision of "everyone is a director", and it will not have a huge impact on the film and television industry.
In the big discussion of different opinions, is the anxiety of the film and television industry really necessary or unfounded?
The tech boom and employment anxietyIn the tech world, there hasn't been an app like Sora that has set off a nationwide rush to try it out like Sora. The last one was ChatGPT, which is also owned by OpenAI.
After the release of SORA, some bloggers entered the same text instructions for the four models of SORA, PIKA, RUNWAY, and STABLE VIDEO:
Beautiful, snow-capped Tokyo is bustling with hustle and bustle, and the camera passes through the bustling city streets, following a few people enjoying a beautiful snowy day, shopping at a nearby stall, and gorgeous cherry blossom petals fluttering in the wind with the snowflakes.
Dynamic Image Source: Obviously, compared with the other three large models generated by the works, the ** effect generated by SORA is more silky and natural.
The various demos released by SORA, such as the fierce battle of the battleship in the coffee, show that in different time and space scenes, text commands can generate ** imaginary space, and the effect is very realistic.
This means that in the future, maybe everyone can write a script according to their own ideas, and then make a differentiated ** through SORA, saving the process of finding a photographer, costume, or even an actor.
When Guotai Junan** mentioned SORA, he believes that it has three outstanding highlights: one is 60 seconds long**, the second is a single** multi-angle lens, and the third is the ability to understand the real world, which comprehensively improves the user's ability to make videos.
Among these three highlights, the most reminiscent is the ability to understand the real world.
In the past, when the film and television industry used computers to produce**, it preferred to use industrial methods such as 3D modeling, lighting and so on, and then rendered frame by frame. This method of simulating images is not only inefficient, but also very expensive.
The logic of SORA is not to directly "copy", but to learn and understand various styles and genres from a large amount of data, accumulate their own experience, and then perform complex tasks according to experience after the user sends text instructions, and finally simulate **.
According to Zhou Hongyi, SORA's method of making ** is very similar to human dreams, because the pictures seen in dreams are based on human experience, not 3D modeling and rendering.
Therefore, OpenAI does not simply regard SORA as a "** model", but as a "world simulator".
Once such a "first-class artifact" is introduced to the market, the first to be impacted is the software company that is mainly engaged in production. Coincidentally, on the second day of Sora's launch, Adobe, which is mainly engaged in image processing and production software, had a stock price of more than 7%.
Subsequently, more practitioners in the film and television industry also smelled anxiety. Historically, every major technological change has threatened a part of the job. For example, in the "Red Flag Act" at the beginning of the Second Industrial Revolution, the emergence of automobiles was resisted by coachmen because they feared that they would be robbed of their jobs. Sequoia Capital has also published an article titled "Generative AI: A Creative New World", mentioning that generative AI involves billions of human laborers.
The emergence of SORA has once again sparked two very different voices and opened a discussion about the future of AI.
Will AI take away human jobs? After the launch of SORA, many bigwigs and institutions have expressed their admiration for its ability.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that "mankind is willing to gamble and lose". The Hollywood Reporter, an authoritative film industry journal in the United States, speculates that OpenAI will use SORA to enter Hollywood on a large scale, which may replace a large number of laborers.
In fact, the reason why many bigwigs and institutions believe that SORA will have a subversive impact on the film and television industry mainly lies in the following two levels:
First, there is user acceptance and commercialization.
In China, the number of users has accounted for 94% of the total number of Internet users8%, and it is one of the few Internet sectors that is still maintaining traffic growth. Not only China, but the whole world has entered the short ** era, and TikTok has become the most popular app.
A large number of users have a huge demand for ** supply. This means that the large-scale implementation of SORA in the later stage is much smoother than that of other products. The idea of "everyone being a director" has a huge user base.
On the other hand, if any product wants to continue to iterate and form a huge impact, it must be able to be commercialized, and SORA has enough commercial space in the film and television industry.
Zak Kukoff**, an early investor in San Francisco, USA, and a team of less than five people will make a film that grosses more than $50 million at the box office in five years, using the Wensheng model and non-union labor.
With such an excellent input-output ratio, almost no film and television team can compare with it at present.
At present, the commercial value of SORA in the film and television industry mainly lies in the fact that it can help content production and distribution to reduce costs and increase efficiency.
Before the release of SORA, a domestic university team said that AI generation ** has helped reduce labor costs by about 1 3 in real-life shooting, and it may be further compressed in the future.
Recently, a blogger said that the animated short film "Journey to the West" generated by himself through AI not only showed a very high quality, but also completed the usual workload of at least half a year in just one week.
Zheshang** believes that SORA and similar products will participate in the process of changing the two major links of information production and distribution, PGC (professional production content) will widely use AI tools to assist production, and UGC (user-generated content) will gradually replace PGC with the help of AI tools.
On the whole, SORA may take the lead in changing the $200 billion short ** creation ecology by virtue of its cost reduction and efficiency increase characteristics in film and television production, giving birth to a large number of "short ** directors", and then gradually spreading to short dramas, long **, animation, games and other scenes.
It is especially worth mentioning that it is a hot short drama at the moment. The production cost of this kind of film and television drama itself is not large, the plot is simple and bloody, but if it explodes, the income is often very high. If SORA is used to further reduce costs and improve efficiency, the commercial space will undoubtedly increase significantly.
However, behind the cost reduction and efficiency increase of AI, it is often accompanied by the adjustment of manual positions. In a survey of 300 Hollywood industry leaders released in January by industry research firm CVL Economics, three-quarters of respondents acknowledged that AI tools had facilitated job cuts or consolidations at the company.
Some agencies estimate that over the next three years, there will be nearly 20 related to visual effects and other post-production40,000 jobs, adversely affected by AI.
It can be seen that SORA not only gives ordinary people the potential to "become directors", but also brings a higher risk of unemployment to some original "professionals".
People and AI, who is the protagonist?
While some people are optimistic about the huge potential of SORA in the film and television industry, others are skeptical.
These doubts involve effects, costs, logic, laws and other levels, and in fact, they are also obstacles and problems faced by SORA to truly subvert the film and television industry.
At present, the picture quality and color in SORA** are relatively excellent. However, when it comes to camera movement and more refined content control, such as light and shadow, slow motion, etc., SORA cannot reach the level of professional film and television creation at present, and the effect is not surprising enough.
Some people will say that SORA is just being launched, and the effect will be better with iterative upgrades in the future, but this will also bring the problem of increased costs. According to a report by OpenAI, the cost of training large models is expected to rise from $100 million to $500 million by 2030.
Although SORA can theoretically help the film and television industry reduce costs and increase efficiency, the cost of AI** applications in computing power consumption far exceeds that of text, audio and images. Whether it will be able to strike a balance between investment and income remains a question mark. If this is not balanced, these costs may be transferred to the user, and ultimately the user will not be able to achieve significant cost control.
Even if the cost is controlled, there is still a difficult bone to gnaw - logic.
Some editors found that in the ** generated by Sora, there are many logical errors, such as blowing out the candle flame but not moving, the liquid flow is wrong after the glass is broken, the man runs in reverse, and so on.
OpenAI explained that it may be difficult for SORA to accurately simulate the physics of complex scenes, and may not be able to understand specific instances in cause and effect, and may also confuse the spatial details in text instructions.
In fact, to make a truly excellent film, it is not only necessary to have visual logic, but also to have a plot logic that starts and ends. Although AI can produce ** with excellent results, it may not be able to grasp the script, lines and plot logic very accurately.
Sometimes, a simple line reflects the cultural accumulation of human beings over hundreds of years, and there are huge cultural differences between different countries and races. It is still doubtful whether the AI model can accurately reflect these differences in the production of **.
A considerable number of film and television practitioners believe that whether it is in terms of film texture, production cost, plot logic, etc., the current SORA is not enough to be applied to the actual scene of mass production of film and television works.
In addition, copyright is a new issue.
Under the traditional legal framework, copyright protects the fruits of people's creative labor. There is no clear legal boundary on whether the ** content generated by SORA is regarded as a "work" and enjoys copyright protection. If there is no copyright, then SORA will only produce batch material, which cannot constitute a complete film and television work, and cannot make SORA users become real directors.
In fact, the film and television industry has formed a complete and mature industrial chain. In addition to its huge industrial system, it also has a very deep cultural core. With generation tools like SORA's current level, it's hard to really disrupt the film and television production industry.
Of course, SORA also has its own unique value in the film and television industry. For example, it can be used in the pre-development of film and television, conceptual design, material generation, publicity and promotion, etc., which can greatly improve the output efficiency. It has just been a good assistant for users in recent times, nothing more.
People are still the protagonists of this era, and AI plays a supporting role.
As for many film and television practitioners, there is no need to be too anxious about the arrival of AI. At different times in history, when a technological revolution destroys some jobs, it often creates new jobs – while cars make horse-drawn carriages disappear, they also create new occupations such as drivers and car mechanics, and people have always played a dominant role in them.