In the past two days, I have seen some relevant people put forward remarks about stimulating the real estate market and developing the economy, seriously, stop stimulating real estate. 
Many so-called experts are not down-to-earth at all, and after becoming an expert and becoming a little famous, they begin to flutter, and they only know the real situation on paper all day long, and they don't know the real situation of the common people. This led to many of the suggestions put forward by these so-called experts as soon as they were released, and they were sprayed by the whole network, and then I saw that many so-called bricks were sprayed and no longer dared to speak. In the past 20 years, whenever economic development has encountered difficulties, we have chosen to stimulate real estate, and then it is the rhythm of music and dance. To be honest, real estate, as our pillar industry in the past 20 years, has indeed made a huge contribution to China's economic development, which we should not deny, but this can only be a thing of the past. How does real estate stimulate the economy? In fact, it is very simple, after the economic crisis, the real estate market started, followed by housing prices, a large number of residents rushed into the market to buy houses, and the real estate market was hot. This can not only solve the problem of social employment, but also drive hundreds of upstream and downstream industrial chains, real estate directly related to the employment of more than 10 million in China, driven by the related industrial chain such as reinforced cement industry, home appliances and furniture industry, building materials industry, etc., you have to decorate after buying a house, so the decoration company also makes money. At the same time, the land transfer fee is an important tax for the local government, and after the local government gets the money, it can pay salaries to civil servants, invest in local infrastructure construction, and increase a wave of employment and consumption, so that the overall economy will come alive. In the past 20 years, we have basically done this, the rapid development of China's economy is inseparable from real estate, real estate in the past 20 years can definitely be called China's pillar industry, one of the locomotives of economic development. 
But there must be a problem here, real estate is not a panacea, every time the economic development encounters difficulties, we stimulate real estate, which leads to higher and higher housing prices and the overall real estate market oversupply. Take my hometown as an example, a small county, and now I can't buy a decent house, I can't beat 1 million, about 1.2 million, and it will cost 1.5 million to buy and decorate, which is quite outrageous. If you buy a house now, the down payment will be about 400,000 yuan, and the monthly mortgage repayment will be about 5,000, and you will have to repay it for decades, while the average salary in my hometown is only 4,000 yuan, which is very unfair to young people who have just entered the society. Just because he was born a few years late, the money he may earn in his lifetime will be posted on the house, and he will be spent on others. Now young people are not stupid, since the housing prices are so high, then I will just lie flat, don't buy your house, I don't get married or have children, it's good to be free alone, because high housing prices can't afford to get married, because high housing prices lie flat directly, there are more and more such people in recent years. The direct result of young people not getting married and not having children is that the birth rate is off a cliff**. In 2016, the number of births in China was 188320,000 people, in 2022, it will fall directly to 9.56 million, and half of the birth rate will fall directly, there are many reasons for this, but housing prices are too high, and the pressure on young people's lives is too high, which is definitely one of the main factors. 
Many people have not realized the horror of this data, not to mention far away, this data has directly led to the obstetricians and gynecologists in many hospitals are about to lose their jobs, at least at present, the obstetrics and gynecology departments of many hospitals are no longer recruiting. Then there is the kindergarten, just look at the birth population data, the birth population is less than half, why do you need so many kindergartens, the closure of kindergartens has already begun. 
Many kindergartens in Beijing used to have a very high threshold, but in the past two years, I have seen that many kindergartens have dropped to almost no threshold, do not require Beijing household registration, residence permit and employment permit are not required, and you can enroll in school when you come, which is really the current children, too scarce. Behind the kindergarten must be the primary school, and after the primary school is the middle school or even the university, so it makes sense to say that teachers have gradually become a high-risk profession, and there are fewer and fewer students, so there will definitely be a group of teachers who will be unemployed in the future. 
So the decline in the birth rate is actually a very bad thing, it will bring a series of adverse chain reactions, to solve this matter, it is necessary to reduce the pressure on young people's lives, housing prices are the first to bear the brunt, at least housing prices can not rise again. On the other hand, in the current environment, the world economy is in a stage of recession, and the development dividends in many fields have ended, such as the typical Internet industry. In the past, it was very profitable to do the Internet, and there was a lot of demand in the market to develop, but today, let's look at it, the fields that can be developed are basically developed, and the competition is very fierce, such as online shopping, many people only knew ** in the past, but then Jingdong, Pinduoduo, including now live broadcast with goods are up, ** The days are getting more and more difficult. In the past, a lot of programmers were needed during the great development of the Internet, so the salary of programmers was very high in the past, but now let's look at it, first of all, there are not so many programs that need to be developed, and secondly, Internet companies are becoming more and more volatile, and many programmers are naturally unemployed to reduce costs and increase efficiency. What I want to say is that in the past 20 years, with the rapid growth of China's economy, it is no problem for housing prices to soar, because housing prices are rising, as long as the economy is still developing at a high speed, and everyone's wages are also **, then high housing prices are not a problem, and they will be digested slowly. I bought a house more than ten years ago, and I thought the monthly payment of 1500 was very high at that time, but looking back today, the monthly payment of 1500 is simply too low, which is the result of rapid economic growth. But once the high economic growth is over, it is very possible that your salary will not rise for 20 years, for example, in 2000, the average annual salary of Japanese people was 38,364 US dollars, and in 2020, the average annual salary is 38,514 US dollars, which is almost standing still, what do you do at this time? Today I have a salary of 5,000 and a mortgage of 5,000, and I don't know if I have a salary of 5,000 in more than ten years, but the mortgage is still 5,000, so I am too stressed. So from this point of view, let's stimulate real estate today, in fact, it is meaningless, or take my hometown as an example, a suite of 1.2 million, everyone can barely get on the car, but if it rises to 2 million, then these young people sell themselves and can't afford to buy a house. Today's world economy is basically stagnant, all walks of life are seriously involuted, it is impossible to raise wages, not only that, many people also have to face unemployment, at this time housing prices soar, which not only does not make any sense, but also will accelerate the collapse of the real estate market. 
Many people are asking, in this case, why can't housing prices be lowered, so that more people can buy houses and boost the economy. In fact, the reason is not difficult to explain, once the house price is large, those who have bought a house have to pull banners, not to mention, many people's mortgages will be cut off directly. For example, I have a down payment of 300,000 yuan, a loan of 700,000 yuan, and more than 1 million yuan owed to the bank with interest, and now the house price has fallen to 300,000, then I have no down payment, not to mention, I have to continue to repay more than 1 million yuan to the bank, then I am not stupid and will definitely cut off the supply. If there are more people who cut off their payments, the bank will have a large number of bad debts, which will directly lead to an economic crisis, and serious social problems will occur. So why there are news reports during this period of time, some developers sell properties at lower prices, and then they are stopped by the relevant departments, is that they are worried that the developer's price reduction and selling behavior may cause a chain reaction, then the problem is big. So at present, China's housing prices are actually very tangled, you can no longer expect to stimulate housing prices on a large scale, so that it is significantly **, many young people have been lying flat directly because of high housing prices, young people's wages and wallets no longer support housing prices to continue**, and the birth rate is even more serious**. Of course, it is impossible for you to expect a large number of house prices, as we said earlier, this will increase financial risks, and at present, it is a sideways decline, which seems to be the only option at present. Real estate is out of the way, so what should we do?
At present, we clearly see the direction given by the country, that is, to vigorously develop high-end manufacturing, the current world economy is a stock game, and Western countries led by the Yankees use the first-mover advantage in high-end manufacturing to make a lot of money in China. Now that we have the ability, we must develop our own high-end manufacturing industry, you can also understand that in the stock era, we have to grab the cake with the West, fair competition, and today we have this strength. The most typical of these is China's new energy vehicles, and China's automobile exports are already the world's first, which has brought us a lot of employment, which was unimaginable before. 
So the little Japan next door is very anxious, their own automobile industry is a pillar industry, behind which a large number of employees are involved in the small days, relying on the Chinese market in the past, they have taken off, but now it is almost cool. In addition to new energy vehicles, our domestic large aircraft C919 has also completed its first flight and implemented normalized operation, and will be put on more routes in the future. This not only solves a large number of employment problems, but also means that we can spend more money on our own consumption and stimulate economic growth, which was unimaginable before. In general, the current economic situation is in trouble, which is not only a problem for China, but also a problem for the world, but we should not and cannot stimulate real estate. The only thing we can and must do at the moment is to continue to develop breakthroughs, and the more the West blocks and suppresses our fields, the more we must go all out to break through. The historical mission of real estate has ended, and it is the key to promote industrial upgrading and find new economic growth points!