In the photovoltaic industry, each leader has been leading for three or two years, and only Jinko has led the second time.After a lapse of three years, JinkoSolar has returned to the No. 1 position in global PV module shipments. The second time I reached the top, I often put in much more effort than the first.
On January 31, 2024, Catch Carbon and others** interviewed JinkoSolar Chairman Li Xiande, a photovoltaic tycoon who rarely appears in front of the public, at Shanghai Jinko Center.
Facts continue to prove that JinkoSolar is ahead of its time, its strategy is successful, and its execution is in place. However, Li Xiande said: "It is impossible to accurately judge the rhythm of clearing, we must make long-term preparations", "we must make the right choice in an uncertain market".
So, what do JinkoSolar and Li Xiande think about the "biggest uncertainty factor" of photovoltaic products, photovoltaic market, and photovoltaic industry? How is JinkoSolar responding?
Why did Li Xiande dare to judge: "Jinko in a year will not be what you can imagine, Jinko's technology can represent the world's most advanced level, the most commercially viable, and the solution that can form an industrial ecology, and there is no one?" ”
Li Xiande is the chairman of JinkoSolar.
At the beginning of JinkoSolar's New Year's message "2024: Believe", Li Xiande mentioned that "supply and demand turbulence, technological change, competition subversion, determination becomes difficult, and doubt is instinct." Don't convince yourself with faith, with logic and facts. ”
What kind of logic and facts make JinkoSolar and Li Xiande believe in the future of photovoltaics and stick to their own judgments?
Li Xiande believes that photovoltaic products should be understood in essence. "We don't want people to over-brag about some of their products and tell too many differentiating stories, we need to know what our customers need," he said. For customers, PV modules are not consumer goods, but investments. Cost-effective (high efficiency, low cost) and high yield products have always been the direction pursued by customers. I think that's the logic of the PV industry. ”
Time will answer all questions", and so will the facts. Li Xiande said: "From Jinko to TOPCON two years ago, until today, there are doubts in the market. We don't need to defend that. Similarly, there are differences in integration and specialization, but the results of the fourth quarter of 2023 say a lot about it, and these are facts. ”
Photovoltaic modules are investment products, and photovoltaic is a fully competitive manufacturing industry, which is an all-round test of enterprise capabilities. "The subtle differences in manufacturing level and module efficiency are reflected in the performance. "Therefore, the gap between different PV companies will become wider and wider. For example, if the profit gap of 1W is 1 cent, then the profit gap of 100GW is 1 billion yuan.
Based on this, JinkoSolar attaches great importance to technology as well as to brand. Li Xiande often mentioned within the company and when communicating with investors: "The module efficiency is one or two notches ahead, the cost per watt is one or two cents lower, and Jinko's brand also has a premium of one or two cents in the market." Both of these are reflected in the profits." As a result, JinkoSolar will reduce operating expenses in 2024, but not R&D and marketing expenses.
JinkoSolar's return to the No. 1 module shipment is related to the fact that it was the first to firmly choose TOPCon and continue to lead in TOPCon technology. JinkoSolar's TOPCon cell mass production efficiency has reached 26% and is expected to reach 26% by the end of 20245%。
The company has applied for more than 3,500 patents and obtained more than 2,000 authorized patents, covering a variety of high-efficiency photovoltaic cell and module technologies such as PERC, TOPCON, BC, etc. At the same time, JinkoSolar leads its peers with 330 TOPCon patents.
Fortunately, TOPCON's core technology patents are in the hands of Chinese companies, if they are in the hands of foreign companies, what kind of patent disputes will arise, and what kind of blow will it be to China's photovoltaic industry?
With an open and win-win attitude, JinkoSolar has authorized the patents of two large-scale enterprises TOPCon for a fee.
Now there is no longer a dispute in the market about who is the mainstream of the three N-type technical routes, and TOPCon is the absolute mainstream of the market. On the old topic of N-type technology, Li Xiande said: "It is not that HJT technology is not necessarily not good, but that TOPCon is running too fast. The problem with HJT is still stuck in cost. Regarding BC, I think one of the possible directions for crystalline batteries in the future is TBC (a combination of TOPCON and BC technologies), which has opportunities in the niche market segment, especially in the rooftop category. ”
The efficiency of n-type cell technology is rapidly improving, and the ultimate efficiency of crystalline silicon cells will soon be reached. What is the next generation of photovoltaic technology? In the interview, Li Xiande mentioned: "Perovskite is a direction. JinkoSolar has invested heavily in the stacking of perovskites and crystals. From the current point of view, TOPCON's perovskite tandem cell, Jinko has achieved 3233%, but its attenuation may only last for 6, 000 hours. It is estimated that the market application of perovskites is not as fast as expected, and it is difficult to promote it on a large scale in three to five years. ”
*Interview site.
Sometimes choice is more important than effort. It's important to keep up with the rhythm of your business, especially in a drastically changing industry like photovoltaics. "For a company of our size, there must be a very strong market analysis team that has been doing market research. But market trends cannot be accurately judged, and we need to make the right choices in an uncertain market."
These judgments are the basis for the company's long-term strategy, medium-term technical roadmap and short-term capacity planning.
The competition in the photovoltaic industry is very fierce, there are often challenges, the market ups and downs, the rapid iteration of technology, and the world's leading disputes. This requires industry enterprises to be professional and focused. Li Xiande believes, "There are many excellent enterprises doing photovoltaic cross-border business, but I have not seen successful cases. In these rounds of photovoltaic cycles, those who can survive are those companies that have done well. In the future, the competition in the photovoltaic industry is still the competition of several leading enterprises. Their advantages in technology, customers, capital, etc. are not something that can be caught up in a short period of time. ”
According to public information, in 2023, the total shipment of the TOP4 photovoltaic modules will account for 57%, and the market share of the TOP7 will reach 73%, which will be 3 percentage points higher than that in 2022.
Zheng Tiangang, a market analyst at JinkoSolar, predicts that in 2024, which is more "involuted", the product advantages and channel advantages of leading companies will be further amplified, and the market share of the top 4 photovoltaic modules is expected to exceed 60%.
Regarding the issue of capacity clearance that the market is concerned about, Li Xiande said: "The speed of capacity clearance this time is faster than everyone imagined. In 2017 and 2018, mono will replace multi production capacity very quickly. This n-type iteration of p-type will also superimpose the market situation of oversupply. Li Xiande believes that enterprises with uncompetitive products and no sustainable production capacity will be eliminated. This means that once some companies stop production, they are unlikely to restart in the next PV cycle; Once the production is stopped, it is difficult to have a chance to turn over, and the company must go through this tragic reshuffle process. He adds: "Because PV requires continuous production to improve efficiency and reduce costs. ”
At present, overcapacity, insufficient operating rate, and photovoltaic modules approaching or below the cost line are the hottest topics in the photovoltaic market, and the sentiment of photovoltaic people and investors is pessimistic.
In this regard, Li Xiande judged: "Now the capacity utilization rate is declining very quickly, which has caused panic among some enterprises. At the same time, many companies are also irrational in judging the future chain. This has led to a low price of eight cents in the market only recently. I think the signing of the order now will be a burden when it is delivered in the future.
Li Xiande believes that the industry will be under pressure in the first quarter of 2024, but the quarter will improve. Component ** does not necessarily go back to 12 yuan, 1$3 high, but will be adjusted to the profit balance point or a reasonable profit position.
It is based on this judgment that JinkoSolar did not choose to "bid at a low price" in the fourth quarter of 2024. From January to November 2023, JinkoSolar ranked among the top three in bidding and bidding. In December 2023 and January 2024, Jinko basically did not win the bid. Li Xiande said: ".We think that the current ** is irrational. Jinko does not engage in vicious competition, but chooses rationality and prudence.
At the same time, he is also optimistic about the demand for photovoltaic market in 2024, believing that there will be a 20% increase compared with 2023. This is because the decline in modules** has increased the investment income of photovoltaic power plants, which can stimulate demand.
What will affect the pattern of the entire photovoltaic industry and the competition model of the industry in the future?
Li Xiande replied without hesitation: "Globalization, from global ** to global manufacturing!" ”
In recent years, in order to protect the domestic photovoltaic industry, the United States, Europe, India and other countries and regions have successively launched anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations ("anti-dumping investigations") against China's photovoltaic enterprises, and the United States has also provoked the UFLPA bill.
In 2023, photovoltaic companies will set off another wave of going overseas. This round of overseas factory construction destinations for Chinese companies tend to be the United States, the Middle East, and India, rather than Southeast Asia, which had a good foundation. This is mainly due to the fact that the tariff exclusions of Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Cambodia are about to expire on June 6, 2024.
"Jinko is the first company to set up factories overseas, and it has also had successful experience in Malaysia, Vietnam, the United States and other places. There are three factors that we need to consider when building factories overseas: the first is geopolitical issues; the second is the industrial base and industrial chain, which is related to cost and product competitiveness; The third is the issue of local currency changes and policies. ”
In the hot Middle East region in 2023, GCL Technology, TCL Zhonghuan, Trina Solar, etc. have successively thrown out expansion plans. JinkoSolar is the largest PV company in the Middle East market in terms of shipments in 2023.
According to public information, in October 2023, JinkoSolar signed a 38GW PIF 3 Project Component Protocol. In addition, Jinko Power has participated in a number of photovoltaic power plant projects in Saudi Arabia, Oman and other Middle Eastern countries.
JinkoSolar started to set up overseas factories at the earliest, and its advantages have been maintainedNow it is still the largest photovoltaic company in overseas production capacity. As of the end of 2022, Jinko has an industry-leading vertically integrated production capacity of more than 7GW of wafers, cells, and modules overseas. By the end of 2023, Jinko's overseas integrated production capacity exceeded 12GW.
Li Xiande once wrote, "The more you are in a downturn, the more confident you must be, because with the decline in costs, photovoltaic is the future of energy"; It is also often said that "let's not worry about what hasn't happened, but always be prepared, that's what we do."
In 2024, what will JinkoSolar do to meet the challenges and embrace the future?
Li Xiande introduced three key tasks:
First, the most important battle is to reduce the debt ratio. Li Xiande said: "Because of some uncertainties in the capital market in 2023, our original financing plan has been disrupted, resulting in our asset-liability ratio being a little higher than that of other leading enterprises. We are clearly and strategically reducing our gearing ratio. Debt has fallen somewhat in the fourth quarter of 2023. We will continue to reduce our gearing ratio by striking a balance between profitability and capacity expansion, and we will continue to reduce it every quarter thereafter. ”
Second, promote the integration of Shanxi. In order to reduce the debt ratio, JinkoSolar has now halted almost all investment plans, leaving only the construction of the Shanxi site and one investment in Vietnam (note: the Vietnam project is aimed at the US market, with saturated orders and high profit margins).
For JinkoSolar, the significance of the Shanxi project is not only leading n-type technology and integrated production capacity, but also digital capabilities. "Digital delivery will allow our customers to see the ESG profile of our entire company, including the first-chain traceability system and carbon footprint," said Lee. ”
The U.S. module market is known to have some of the highest profit margins in the world. InfoLink data shows that the U.S. component is at 2About 2 RMB. Jinko is currently the only PV company in China that has complied with the U.S. anti-circumvention investigation (because it has completed the traceability system), and is the only company that can supply to the U.S. normally. In 2023, JinkoSolar's shipments to the U.S. reached 4GW, and it is expected to increase significantly in 2024.
Li Xiande judged: "In the future, ESG may become a stepping stone. If companies don't have ESG capabilities, they won't be able to enter the European market. ”
In addition, JinkoSolar's digital capabilities enable JinkoSolar to meet the "special" requirements of customers in the United States and Europe.
Third, Jinko's module orders have covered 50% of its 2024 shipment plan, and Jinko's goal for 2024 is to maintain shipments and profit margins.
"Jinko's current product order volume is definitely more than 50%, and different customers have different pricing mechanisms, and these customers and order volume are enough to support Jinko's operation in 2024," Li said. ”
JinkoSolar recently released its 2023 annual performance forecast: it is expected that the net profit for 2023 will be 72500 million yuan to 79500 million yuan, an increase of 146 percent year-on-year92% to 17076%。
In this regard, Li Xiande commented that there is still a certain gap between Jinko's performance in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the forecast, mainly because the downside of the market is still relatively insufficient compared with the mechanism of price adjustment when the contract is signed.
From 2021 to the present, JinkoSolar's strategy has been very clear: leading technology, global layout, and efficient management system. Despite the noise and interference in the past three years, JinkoSolar has been very resolute in the implementation of its strategy. Li Xiande said that strategy and strategy execution have made Jinko have today's position in the industry.
In 2023, Li Xiande hopes that Jinko people will "grow fiercely"; In 2024, Li Xiande hopes that Jinko people will choose to "believe" and believe that "photovoltaic is the future of energy".
Jinko people will also use facts and actions to "convince" everyone: "Jinko today is no longer what you imagined, and Jinko in a year will not be imagined by people." Jinko's technology represents the world's most advanced level, the most commercially viable and the most feasible solution that can form an industrial ecosystem. ”
Catch up with the carbon number to appreciate and admire Li Xiande's confidence and determination. Together with PV people and PV investors, we have witnessed JinkoSolar's transformation and growth in 2024 and beyond.
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