There are more photovoltaic sectors, mainly due to the continuous decline in the industrial chain in recent times, which has led to a decline in corporate profits, which is reflected in the performance of Q4 that is less than expected, the market is worried that demand is less than expected, Trump is considering imposing tariffs on Chinese imports after re-election, and the market as a whole has hit a new low. After this round, the industrial chain has seen the bottom, the fundamentals have seen the bottom of the profit, and the performance risk has been released in the near future, the bottom of the plate is relatively clear and solid, and the positive marginal changes after the holiday are worth paying attention to.
Regarding performance, in the context of the market's general low expectations for the Q4 Q1 performance of companies in the sector, the annual performance forecast of some companies on Friday still missed, which made the short-term lightning avoidance mood resurgence, of course, this also compressed the space for further marginal deterioration of the performance of the Q1 report. 23 is the worst time for the performance of the photovoltaic sector, and the market has certain expectations, and the low point of performance may also be the low point of stock price. Looking back on history, after the announcement of the industry's first quarterly report in April 21, the market bottomed out.
According to the US Energy Administration's expected 50% demand growth in the United States, as well as the potential to double demand in emerging markets such as the Middle East and South America, although the installed capacity in 2023 has far exceeded expectations, global PV demand still has 20% growth potential in 2024. As the market for quasi-solar resources gradually shifts to the quasi-solar resource market in 2024, the PV capacity ratio is expected to continue to rise, which will bring about an increase in module demand under the condition of fixed installed demand.
Regarding **, the industry is accelerating, and it is expected to usher in a repair after the Spring Festival. At present, the second- and third-tier battery factories have stopped production and reduced production by a large amount, in addition to the production reduction of more than 100GW of old PERC production capacity, and the production schedule of some new TOPCon companies in February is also low, and profitability is under greater pressure.
Regarding tariffs, the recent market concerns about the policy changes that may result from the US ** result have fermented, but the high profitability of Chinese companies (overseas production capacity) in the US market is largely created by the supply threshold caused by ** barriers, and the underlying logic of the US PV policy against China is to stimulate the development of local manufacturing (including Chinese companies to build factories in the United States) without sacrificing a large number of downstream jobs, so there is no need to be too pessimistic. In the near future, we will also analyze in detail the circumstances and conditions of the ** and tax increases.
In addition to the above fundamental factors, the most fundamental reason for the recent plate adjustment, or the past month relative to the market performance of the excess is too much, although the industrial fundamentals have improved signals but indeed has not yet fully bottomed out, and then superimposed on the recent macro policy and capital-driven style switching, resulting in the plate stock price in the bottom area will definitely have repeated, today's trading surface to make up for the market to fall a new low, coupled with the market funds once again seesaw phenomenon, the first in the first ** group has also intensified the outflow of growth stocks, Other sectors also saw significant adjustments.
The short-term photovoltaic sector is affected by the contradiction between supply and demand and performance is less than expected, the overall sentiment is currently extremely pessimistic, after this round of over-falling digestion of negative performance feedback, the market at the end of Q1 and the beginning of Q2 upward revision of 2024 demand consensus expectations and drive the plate upward is a high probability event, recently due to the sharp reversal of style switching to create layout opportunities again. Priority should be given to the positive growth of performance in 2024, with strong certainty, and the demand side will directly benefit from the auxiliary materials, inverter brackets and other links, and the main material link will be repaired after the bottoming signal is observed at the end of Q1 and the beginning of Q2.