The war in Ukraine has been going on for two years, however, so far there is no sign that the fighting is about to stop. Neither the Ukrainian side nor Russia, nor their respective allies, have given up on the expectation of a long-term conflict, nor do they see any signs of a peaceful resolution in the short term.
1.Who is the winner?
In this conflict, both sides suffered heavy losses. The front has stretched for 1000 km, but the situation has hardly changed since the fall of 2022. While Ukraine managed to push back Russian forces in the early stages of the war, now Russian forces are holding their ground, while Ukraine is running out of ammunition. Although Ukraine has recaptured large swaths of territory in the east and south, most of it remains under Russian occupation.
2.Has the international community's support for Ukraine weakened?
Although Ukraine has received huge amounts of military, financial and humanitarian aid from the European Union and the United States over the past two years, support for Ukraine has weakened in recent months. Political differences between the United States and the European Union, as well as opposition from some member states, have hampered Ukraine's aid plans. In addition, the attitude of China and other countries is not clearly in favor of Ukraine, which makes Ukraine's position in the international community even more difficult.
3.Are Russia's goals changing?
Putin still insists on including Ukraine in Russia's strategic objectives. He believes that the population of Ukraine needs the protection of Russia and denies the existence of Ukraine as an independent state. Putin wants Ukraine to be "demilitarized" and "neutral" and continues to oppose NATO's eastward expansion.
4.How will the war end?
Given the resolute positions of both sides, it is likely that the war will last for a long time. Most likely, the two sides will be drawn into a long war of attrition, and Ukraine will continue to rely on the support of its allies. The end of the war may require a negotiated settlement, but it also depends on the support and intervention of the international community.
5.Will the conflict expand further?
Ukraine** Zelensky warned that if the international community does not stand up to Russia, Russia could pose a threat to many more countries in the coming years. Therefore, the international community needs to strengthen its support for Ukraine, while also being vigilant about the potential risks that Russia may pose in other regions.
In this war, which has lasted for two years, both Ukraine and Russia, as well as the international community, have paid a huge price. However, it is only through sustained efforts and cooperation that it will be possible to find a path to an end to the war and bring peace and stability to Ukraine and the region as a whole.