Since the second half of 2023, due to the increasing pressure on the survival of some enterprises in the real economy due to the slow or unsuccessful transformation, and even some enterprises have been forced to withdraw from the market or operation, some foreign capital has withdrawn from China normally due to its own reasons, but it has been misled to be "with the rhythm" and misled that it is not optimistic about China's economic prospects. In fact, this lack of self-confidence, in addition to some of the reasons that are indeed not clear about the prospects of the industry and the market, but there are also a considerable number of principles, which are deliberately deviated by some ** forces. Their purpose is very simple, that is, to get more Chinese and Chinese companies to give up lying down, and even run to some beautiful countries that they preach "better".
In the past, when China's industrialization process had just started and China's economy was more backward and more difficult, even when the West repeatedly sang about China, it did not make more Chinese people lose confidence in China's economy. The strange thing is that at a time when China's economic trend has obviously changed for the better and is irreversible, there have been a large number of various ways to belittle China's growth momentum, doubt the existence and significance of a strong domestic market, and make irresponsible remarks about China's scientific and technological progress and leading fields, and more importantly, there are still a lot of cheers that hype the strong momentum of the US economy and the "soft landing" of economic success. Under some circumstances, the US economy has become a sick and sunny state, while China's economy, which is still in a period of strong growth and expansion, has a gloomy outlook. And if these ** have ulterior motives, just saying that their remarks are obviously unreasonable and untrue.
It should be said that in the next 10 to 15 years, China's economy will still be in a period of leaping from a big country to a strong country. Not only will the economy certainly continue to improve in 2024, but there will also be no major reversal for a long time to come. Strong market inertia is being formed, and the endogenous power of the domestic market with the consumption of national tide and domestic products as the core is constantly increasing. The digital economic system characterized by express delivery, mobile payment, cross-border e-commerce, intelligent manufacturing, etc., is gradually taking shape and leading the world. Various new formats and models such as e-commerce live broadcast, intelligent customization, and experience economy have been rising rapidly. Although the decline of some industries or economic formats has brought about the loss of the interests of some enterprises or individuals, new economic growth points and new momentum are accelerating to replace the decline caused by the aging and decline of some economic forms.
Any country has a life cycle of rise and fall under different large economic cycles. Growth and decline are inevitable. When will a few leaves not fall and fall in a winter sunset? Under the conditions of market economy, at any time, there will be the withdrawal and closure of enterprises, except for some enterprises that are extremely comprehensive and can always grasp the industrial cycle, generally speaking, there is no real immortal enterprise. At present, the few century-old stores that still exist in the world are actually corporate brands that have survived through rounds of mergers and acquisitions, and their leading products, economic forms, and business contents may be reborn. This is a normal market phenomenon, and it has always existed in Western countries, and it is regarded as the norm. However, in China, some people with ulterior motives have misinterpreted the logic of its rise and fall, and have described the withdrawal of normal markets and industries as the result of a series of consequences, such as the deterioration of the investment environment, the unfavorable economic prospects, or the lack of information about the consumer market. Just as some international capitals enter and exit normally around the world, when they withdraw from the Chinese market, they smear China's economy by the way.
In response to the above negative remarks, it stands to reason that Chinese economists, especially some scholars from Qingbei University, who have made many achievements, have almost all been collectively silent and indifferently allowed to ferment, and very few have come forward to point out the errors in logic or premise, and even fewer have pointed out the one-sidedness and misleading nature of their theoretical analysis or concepts. This strange phenomenon, to a certain extent, reveals that the academic and theoretical self-confidence of China's economic circles are almost frozen, and they seem to have been collectively taken by mainstream Western economics or some people. Not only failed to really point out the root cause of China's economic confidence, but also indirectly helped to tap the negative elements of China's economy. So far, there are still some influential scholars who are still accusing China of intervening too much in the industry and managing the market too much, and some people even openly say that "stimulating consumption" is the wrong policy. The reason for this is that, on the one hand, some people do worship foreigners, but they don't want to see the West, which they have always admired, actually lag behind China; On the other hand, some people really have no conscience, take certain funds, and obtain certain benefits, so they are inclined to theoretical research and so on. These people, time and history will prove that they were once right and made great contributions to the introduction and dissemination of Western economics, but for the present and the future, they are confused, or they are really old.
In fact, the confidence in China's economy, whether it is confidence in 2024 or confidence in the next three or five decades, does not need too many complicated explanations, because, in the current world, Europe's economy is like a ten-year-old man, old-fashioned, its industrial aging and the decay of the industrial base cannot be reversed. Similarly, the economies of the United States, Japan, and South Korea are like old people in their sixties and seventies, and although they still have residual power and are still very strong, their potential and capabilities are already setting in the sunset. Today's United States, like Britain a hundred years ago, will eventually fall with the decline of its dollar, military, political, and cultural hegemony. China's economy has just entered a period of strength in its thirties and forties, and no matter the wind or rain, with its strong physical fitness, it will resist the past, and then rest for a while, and then continue to rise in high spirits. Each and every one of us should cheer loudly and be proud of this. You might as well jump up and yell a few times, China is rising!
In the foreseeable years to come, there is no country in the world that will pose a strategic threat to China's economy. Over the past 20 years, China has quietly completed the systematic restructuring of the world's most important strategic industries, and the chassis has been consolidated and unshakable. In aerospace, high-speed rail, new energy (intelligent) vehicles, a new generation of communication equipment, shipbuilding, electric power, new infrastructure, large aircraft, computers, artificial intelligence, express logistics, third-party payment and other new industrialization and new consumption fields, have grown up strongly, forming a strong industrial system that can develop independently. The bottom of this industrial system is the digital economy + intelligent manufacturing with Chinese characteristics. For such an economic form, at present, only China in the world has been basically completely constructed, so it will lead the world in a new round of industrial revolution. All this is the confidence and future of China's economy. This big cycle may be 50 years, or it may be 100 years.
In any case, China's economy will become the economic center and science and technology center of the world. Because Europe and the United States have already succeeded in deindustrialization, and it is difficult to reindustrialize, it is too late for them to realize the consequences of de-industrialization. However, the emerging developing countries will not be able to walk out of the path of industrialization with Chinese characteristics for a long time, and even if there is partial industrialization, they will be stuck on the edge of the industrialized countries because it is difficult to overcome the middle-income trap. Therefore, the success of China's industrial revolution and industrial revolution is not only China's thousand-year-old national fortune and national fortune, but also a testimony to the great success of the strategic decision-making of our party and state.
Wang Xianqing, President of Modern Industry Research Institute of Guangdong Baiyun University, President of Guangdong Whole Chain Industry Research Institute, President of Guangdong Business Economics Association).