The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has made it clear that from 2024, these two types of houses may be included in the demolition
In the eyes of many, demolition has become difficult since 2019, when the National Housing Authority officially declared the end of the era of large-scale demolitions and large-scale construction. What's more, with the progress of the old renovation, the average living space of the residents here is already very large, and it is impossible to demolish so many houses in the future, because the market demand is constantly declining. However, from the perspective of industry insiders, the situation is not as pessimistic as people think.
For example, the previous "2021-2035 Housing Market Demand** Report" is based on this, "Analysis of China's Housing Consumption Trends". The study shows that although the overall demand of China's residential market has entered the state of "first-class", combined with the changes in housing prices, it can be seen that the total sales of commercial housing in China will be 1The speed of about 8% has maintained a stable development trend. According to estimates, although the residential market did not reach a peak of nearly 1.9 billion square meters during the peak of development in 2021, this figure will remain above 1.4 billion square meters until 2035. So, what is the annual demand for 14 square meters? The need for improvement and demolition remains the mainstay. There are three categories of homes that need to be in the future:
1.The massive movement from rural to urban areas has led to rigid housing requirements, which will reach an average annual demand of 260 million square meters, or 18%, by 2035. 2.With the continuous expansion of the scale of urban residential construction, the demand for improved housing is getting higher and higher, and by 2035, the average annual demand will reach about 800 million square meters, reaching 54%. 3.By 2035, about 440 million square meters of new housing will be needed, or about 28%, due to urban renewal and renovation in cities. And, until 2035, the proportion of these two energy sources will continue to increase, reaching 11%, 58% and 31% respectively.
This also means that from half of the past, by 2035, it will become one point; The demand for demolition is rising, as high as 30 percent, that is, one out of three people has been demolished. Why is this happening? In fact, the situation in the real estate market in the past two years is also very important. In the past two years, with the introduction of various optimization policies, the volume of real estate transactions has dropped sharply, and even second-hand houses have continued to decline, and the number of houses sold has skyrocketed.
The normal means of stimulating domestic demand is now a time when the skills of the donkey are exhausted, and according to past experience, it is very possible to carry out another forced demolition. There is no doubt that at the 2021 property market work conference, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development proposed to do a good job in the "three major projects", and demolition is the focus. In this regard, many people in the industry believe that from 2024, there will be another round of "demolition wave", and these two types of houses may be included in the demolition plan.
The first is the demolished houses, that is, the demolished villages. Since March this year, China has promulgated the "Outline" for promoting the renovation of "urban villages" in megacities, and included it in the "three major projects" during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. This demolition is talking about the earlier demolition, but it is essentially the same, it is all demolition, or demolition. In addition, at the end of next year, Yang Ma restarted the PSL project, and the industry has also confirmed the industry's speculation that the demolition of urban villages has entered the implementation period, and 2024 is a new starting point and a new year.
According to estimates by relevant authorities, the demolition may drive residential consumption to exceed one trillion yuan, which will increase real estate investment by about 5% and housing sales by about 10%. This is also a signal that a new house demolition will trigger a ** in house prices. Of course, there is also a situation here, that is, in the old renovation, there is a dangerous kind of house, the main building of this kind of house has been destroyed, and it can no longer be inhabited, so it has to be demolished.
In the second stage, good housing development tends to be demolished. Zhao Hui, the former chief economist of the National Housing Administration, admitted that China's housing is still far from the indicators of building good houses, such as China's construction quality, living convenience, facilities and equipment, waterproof, sound and heat insulation, etc., compared with Japan, there is still a big distance. In addition, at the National Housing Construction Conference held at the beginning of this year, Ni Hong pointed out that it is necessary to "focus on improving the living environment, from good housing to good communities, from good communities to good communities, from good communities to good cities, to planning and construction, and then to governance".
Chen Huai, director of the Institute of Urban and Rural Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, has publicly stated that more than half of the houses in China's current urban housing system will be demolished in 10 to 20 years. Obviously, this is why the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will place special emphasis on opening up new roads and building good houses in the new year's real estate work. In other words, the original house will be demolished.
All in all, there will definitely be some houses demolished in the future, but not as extensively as before. And with the development of the country, the people's requirements for living conditions are getting higher and higher, and it would be a waste to only build houses in the future, rather than demolish them. Therefore, it is also a trend that demolition should be a good option after the aging of the house. Wan Ziwen: "Every sentence I write is well thought out, please click to read it and tell me that you are also working hard for your own life." ”