On February 18th, the Spring Festival holiday officially ended, and in one more day, the first trading day of the Year of the Dragon is about to open.
A week before the holiday, with the multi-pronged efforts of the regulators, important indices have been **, and the transaction volume has increased significantly, and a number of brokerage research reports believe that the **sex after the over-fall is expected to continue until the end of the year, and the first trading day of the Year of the Dragon is worth looking forward to. As for the market outlook, on the one hand, it depends on the fundamentals, and on the other hand, it depends on the recovery of investor confidence.
In addition, in the Hong Kong market, on the first trading day of the Year of the Dragon, Hong Kong stocks opened low and closed up strongly, harvesting a "good start", and the Hang Seng Index was **0 throughout the day84%, closing at 15,879 points, with a turnover of 570HK$6.4 billion, as of February 16, the Hang Seng Index has been happy to mention the "three consecutive yang", which also opens an auspicious omen for A-shares.
The "good start" after the holiday is worth looking forward to.
From January 29 to February 2 before the holiday, the A-share index fell sharply, of which the CSI 500 fell as much as 923%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 806%, the GEM index fell 785%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 619%, the successive ** has caused the market to worry about snowball products, two financial and ** pledges, in the lack of money-making effect, there is no incremental capital entry, and investor panic has intensified.
In order to maintain market stability and boost investor confidence, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued intensive statements 10 times in 3 days, especially on February 6, when the China Securities Regulatory Commission made an intraday announcement"Two fusions"The business voiced that "the scale of new refinancing bonds will be suspended, and the stock will be gradually closed", which greatly encouraged the confidence of the market to go long.
Benefiting from the regulator's confidence in maintaining stability, A-shares staged the "V" word**, and in the last week before the holiday (February 5-February 8), important A-share indices have **. Among them, the CSI 500 rose 1286%, the GEM index closed up 1138%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 949%, CSI 300 rose 583%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 497%。
In terms of trading volume, wind data shows that the turnover of the two cities in the last week before the holiday was 38 trillion yuan, and the turnover exceeded one trillion yuan for two consecutive trading days from February 7th to February 8th; Northbound funds also showed an inflow trend.
In fact, looking back on history, in the past 24 years (2000-2024, the same below), the probability of the last trading day before the Spring Festival is good.
For example, the Shanghai Composite Index has been the first in 17 years in 24 years, and only 8 years have closed down, among which, on the last trading day of the Year of the Rabbit, the Shanghai Composite Index also reported a rise and closed; In the past 24 years, the Shenzhen Component Index has closed higher on the last trading day before the holiday in 15 years, and only 9 have closed in the red.
In view of the full momentum of A-shares before the holiday, the "good start" after the holiday is worth looking forward to.
Song Yiwei, an analyst at Bohai, believes that in view of the multi-pronged approach of the management, the short-term efforts to maintain market stability have been increased, and the market has ushered in a stabilization and repair process at both the index level and the structural level.
In the past 24 years, CBN statistics have found that the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index have almost mixed on the first trading day after the Spring Festival, of which the Shanghai Composite Index has reported rising in 13 years and falling in 11 years; The SZSE Component Index has reported gains in 12 years and down in 12 years.
Among them, the most severe decline was on the first trading day after the Spring Festival in 2020, under the influence of the epidemic factor, it came out of a deep V, but it also achieved a "** pit". Since then, starting from 2021, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen for the first time after the Spring Festival for three consecutive years, and the Shenzhen Component Index has risen for the first time after the Spring Festival for two consecutive years.
The first two years of the dragon in the history of A-shares have performed well.
According to the lunar calendar, this year is the third year of the dragon in the A** field, and historically, the first two years of the dragon in A-shares have performed well.
Among them, the first Year of the Dragon was from February 5, 2000 to January 23, 2001, during which the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3457%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 20%. The second year of the dragon was from January 23, 2012 to February 9, 2013, during which the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 488%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 552%。
For this year, Song Yiwei believes that the market is still dominated by the over-falling ** in the short term, with certain characteristics of general rise. If after the general rise, market confidence gradually recovers, and drives the formation of the main line of the market, then under the money-making effect, ** is expected to continue to unfold. On the contrary, if the main line of the market cannot be formed, the rotation effect will accelerate after the general rise, the resonance effect of funds will not be strong, and the valuation repair process will take longer.
As for whether it can be sustained and finally determined to be a reversal, Zhao Wei, an analyst at Founder, believes that it depends on three main conditions: first, the hot spot can continue; Second, regardless of the rise and fall of the first class, the amount of energy can be continuously and effectively released; Third, the policy to stabilize the trend of A-shares can be continuously released, not "top-heavy", and the sustainability and effectiveness of the policy is the guarantee of market confidence.
Zhang Chi, an analyst at Guojin**, believes that the improvement of liquidity and the rebound of risk appetite will support the market from within, and at the same time, with the national team funds for the market "transactional risk" resolution, will be "irrational" adjustment from the external control of the market, and it is expected that February and March will be expected to open more than a month of "restlessness" after the "restlessness" of A-shares, it is still possible to build a "double bottom" again in the second quarter, that is, market volatility near April or rise again.
Li Zhan, chief economist of China Merchants Research Department, believes that the current valuation and risk premium of A-shares have reached a historically low level, and when counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary policies are introduced in a timely manner to maintain stability and stabilize the market, economic expectations will be revised upward, and the micro transaction structure will be gradually cleared, and A-shares will enter the medium and long-term allocation value range.
Editor-in-charge: Ren Haopeng |Review: Li Zhen |Supervisor: Wan Junwei.
*: CBN).