2023 has passed, and judging from the economic data released by the state, the overall economy has shown a clear warming trend; However, from the perspective of the extensive economic development of the park, it is cold, and there are many parks that have stagnated in recent years. Due to the changes in the economic situation at home and abroad, the Matthew effect of industrial agglomeration and innovation clusters is becoming more and more obvious, and the uncertainty of the development of most parks is increasing, which is even more foggy about the new environment faced by the parks. In the development gap period approaching the Spring Festival, we need to sort out the new environment faced by the development of the park from the dimensions of policy environment, industrial environment, market environment, etc., and build a new development logic of the park in a timely manner.
1. The policy environment faced by industrial parks
1. National policy: encourage the development of the park to transform to the four modernizations and achieve high-quality development
In recent years, the state has successively introduced policies to promote the high-quality development of industrial parks, and in the macro context of accelerating the construction of a new development pattern, the development of industrial parks has presented new characteristics such as "high-end industrial structure, low-carbon energy supply, intensive land use, and digital and intelligent park management". The high-end industrial structure is to focus on high-end manufacturing, extend to the high-end of the industrial chain, and promote the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure; Low-carbon energy supply means vigorously promoting low-carbon production and low-carbon management in the park, and strengthening the construction of low-carbon infrastructure in the park; Land use intensification means the efficient use of inefficient land, the increase of stock, and the promotion of industrial upstairs to realize the multi-dimensional expansion and intensive utilization of park space; The digital intelligence of park management is to guide the park to accelerate the construction of digital infrastructure, and use digital technology to combine with park management and operation services to improve the operational efficiency of the park and drive the innovation of park management.
2. National requirements: strengthen the assessment and evaluation of the development zone, and force the park to optimize and upgrade
On the one hand, the assessment system of the industrial park covers a wide range of evaluation and assessment indicators, and the assessment of an economic development zone covers 30 secondary indicators in 5 major aspects, and the assessment of the high-tech zone has 46 secondary indicators, which is not a small pressure on the development zone. On the other hand, the downgrading of industrial parks is increasing, and the assessment and evaluation method for the comprehensive development level of the national economic development zone introduced in 2021 will change the unified ranking to the classification ranking of the eastern, central and western regions, which has increased the exit pressure of the eastern and central development zones, and also increased the frequency of withdrawal. Assessment position solidification problem.
Second, the industrial environment faced by the industrial park
1. International situation: The world economy has fallen into a downturn, and the global industrial chain has accelerated its reconstruction
In terms of recovery, the world economy is showing three major divergences. The first is regional differentiation, with the gap between the two largest economies of the United States and Europe widening, and the economies of less developed countries and low-income countries on a downward trajectory. The second is industrial differentiation, with new energy, high-end manufacturing, and digital economy recovering rapidly, while traditional industries and general manufacturing industries recovering slowly; The third is class differentiation, with many countries opening the floodgates and releasing water to push up assets**, and the gap between the rich and the poor continues to widen. As a global manufacturing plant, China, facing the dual pressure of low-end manufacturing squeeze from emerging economies such as Vietnam and India and the return of high-end manufacturing from developed countries, Japan's large-scale manufacturing industry has shown signs of recovery. In the next few years, the global industrial chain will be restructured at an accelerated pace, and the stability of the industrial chain in the park will face new challenges.
2. Domestic situation: In the stage of international and domestic dual circulation, the domestic circulation has become the main support point
From a domestic point of view, it is mainly facing the international and domestic dual circulation pattern, and the domestic circulation will become the main support point. On the whole, the domestic cycle should be improved from the three dimensions of science and technology internal circulation, traditional economic internal circulation, and consumption internal circulation, involving key words such as hard technology, new infrastructure, import substitution, export to domestic demand, overseas consumption return, and the rise of local brands. The negative list of foreign investment led by the free trade zone has been continuously reduced, the restrictions on foreign investment in the high-end manufacturing and service industries have been gradually lifted, and industrial parks have been required to pay more attention to international cooperation, the internationalization of the business environment, and the market-oriented reform of technology and data.
3. Industrial trends: innovation has become the general trend of future economic development, and the cultivation of emerging industries is prominent
At present, China's industries are mostly at the middle and low end of the global value chain, and in the context of a new generation of science and technology and industrial transformation, China urgently needs to break through the original development model. In terms of building innovation leadership, we must strive to seize the commanding heights of technology, strengthen key core technology research, strive to break the situation of chip supply interruption, technology blockade, and first-class restrictions, and strengthen the resilience of industrial chain development; In terms of improving the endurance of the industry, we will look forward to the layout of strategic emerging industries and future industries, and accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system, the highlight of which is to promote the integration of strategic emerging industries and build a new generation of information technology, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, green environmental protection and a number of new growth engines.
3. The market environment faced by the industrial park
1. Primary market: the supply of industrial land exceeds demand, and the overall land use is stable
In the primary market, the planning and transaction floor area of industrial land in 300 cities across the country are growing as a whole, and the intensity of industrial land promotion will continue to be the first in 2022, with the launch and transaction volume of industrial land increasing, and the supply is greater than the demand. From the perspective of industrial land transactions, in recent years, industrial land transactions have remained in the range of 270-290 yuan square meters, and from the perspective of the average premium rate, the average premium rate of industrial land in 2022 will be 183%, a slight decrease of 018 percentage points, indicating that the overall market for industrial land is stable, **not obvious**. Overall, the amount of industrial land is in excess of demand, and it remains stable.
2. Stock market: The input-output efficiency of land is low, and there is a large space for tapping potential
In the stock market, from the perspective of land development plot ratio, nearly 6 percent of the comprehensive plot ratio of industrial land in national development zones is less than 06. The comprehensive plot ratio of land development is low, and the land use intensity needs to be improved. From the perspective of input and output, in recent years, the investment intensity of the development zone has increased while the comprehensive tax revenue has declined, which indicates that the unit efficiency of the development zone is declining. From the perspective of idle land, 579 state-level development zones have been approved but not provided for land1570,000 hectares, accounting for 311%；Idle land 0060,000 hectares, accounting for 0 percent of the land14%。On the whole, the development intensity of the stock land is insufficient, the input-output efficiency is low, and the potential is large.
3. Park development: Entering the era when operation is king, it is generally facing vacancy and investment pressure
In recent years, secondary parks and industrial real estate have become important development models for large-scale development zones. In the face of the downturn in industrial investment and sluggish real estate development, the development of industrial parks has also been greatly impacted, and the single project in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta is still relatively good, and the sales speed of other regional parks is obviously not as fast as expected, and the annual de-investment of single projects in the central and western regions is even lower, and the industrial parks are generally facing vacancy, investment and financial pressure. From the perspective of development trends, industrial parks have entered the era of operation is king, industry profit margins are declining, the willingness to develop industrial real estate is decreasing, more and more park operators are transforming from heavy assets to light assets, and local first-class platform companies have become the main force in park development.
Fourth, the development logic of industrial parks has changed
We have analyzed the new environment for the development of industrial parks, from which we can see the great challenges faced by the development of industrial parks, and it is definitely not possible to change the way of thinking. Combined with the consulting experience of Dongtan Think Tank, a large part of China's development zones need to change their development logic and reshape their own development strategies.
The first is to change the industrial logic, combined with the regional economy and the actual situation of the park, re-audit the industrial system of the park, and formulate a new industrial development path, such as from the previous low-cost industrial transfer to meet the capacity expansion needs of mature products, to meet the needs of high-tech products and high value-added enterprises for rapid innovation and expansion.
The second is that the spatial logic should be changed, in the past, the new land mainly relied on the logic of expanding the area, and now it must rely on the logic of revitalizing the stock of inefficient land, which is the national policy requirement. With the evolution of the development zone to a comprehensive urban area, it is necessary to consider promoting the urban renewal of the development zone as a whole, and promote the integrated development of industries and the construction of characteristic industrial parks.
The third is to change the logic of merchants, combined with the new investment trends such as industrial chain differentiation and reorganization, industrial transfer and sinking, change the industrial investment model, and design new investment channels.
Fourth, the investment logic should change, in the case of market-oriented investment obstacles, do not "take it all", or use the establishment of investment, the issuance of REITs and other ways to reduce the risk of enterprise investment, as far as possible to attract social capital to participate in the development and operation of all aspects of the development zone, which is also the guiding direction of the policy.
Fifth, the cost logic should be changed, from the simple pursuit of one-time provision of low factor costs to create a development zone with low comprehensive cost, especially in the whole life cycle of the project within the depreciation period of the fixed investment, the lowest comprehensive cost, in order to have real development competitiveness.
Sixth, the operation logic should be changed, the development zone should change the development thinking of "land acquisition, infrastructure construction and land sale", and should serve the enterprises settled in the development zone with the thinking of platform economy, and achieve win-win cooperation and sustainable development with the settled enterprises through good operation services.