Introduction In recent years, the steel mill industry has experienced unprecedented changes and challenges. With the introduction of the flat control policy, steel mills' views on future demand have gradually become pessimistic, and there is an atmosphere of "living a hard life" in the industry. However, this pessimism does not stem from the misjudgment of the market by steel mills, but the prisoner's dilemma caused by the misalignment of individual and collective interests. This article will start from the analogy of wolves and sheep, go deep into the dilemma and way out of the steel mill industry, and reveal the unique charm of iron ore in the black industry chain. 
The analogy between the wolf and the sheep In a wolf pack, each wolf understands that the sheep are the foundation of their survival. However, when faced with the sheep in front of them, individual wolves are often unable to resist and choose short-term interests, resulting in damage to the overall interests of the wolf pack. This phenomenon also exists in the steel mill industry. Every steel mill understands the importance of industry prosperity, but in the face of short-term benefits, they often choose strategies such as increasing production and reducing prices, resulting in the industry as a whole in trouble. The introduction of the flexibility and flat control policy aims to solve this problem, but due to the lack of mandatory binding, steel mills are still struggling to get out of the dilemma of self-restraint.
The social phenomenon analogy with the problem of the steel mill industry is not an isolated case, but a microcosm of all aspects of China's social development. Problems such as slowing population growth, serious environmental pollution, excessive debt and early overdraft consumption, and competition for local promotions are all essentially similar to the tragedy of the wolves. These problems all stem from the misalignment between the interests of the individual and the collective, resulting in the loss of the interests of the whole. To solve these problems, it is necessary to carry out fundamental reforms at the institutional level and strengthen the binding force of collective interests.
The impact of the flat control policy on thread and iron ore In the black industry chain, the impact of the flat control policy on thread and iron ore is particularly significant. On the one hand, the flat control policy is expected to lead to a weakening of thread demand, and on the other hand, the performance of iron ore is relatively strong because of the relatively weak impact of the flat control policy. This difference makes the long advantage of iron ore in the black varieties highlighted. From a historical point of view, when the iron ore discount is larger, it often means that the disk space is larger. Therefore, under the expectation of the flat control policy, iron ore is expected to be strong.
Analysis of thread inventory and warehouse receipt level The recent increase in total thread inventory is higher than the level of the same period last year, which partly reflects the weak market demand. At the same time, the premium of the spot off-season led to an increase in hedging orders, and the level of warehouse receipts also reached the highest level in the same period. Together, these factors suppress the space for threads. However, against the backdrop of a strong iron ore performance, the weak performance of the thread may only be temporary. Once the market demand picks up or the flat control policy is adjusted, the thread is expected to usher in. Changes in the flow direction of crude steel and the proportion of thread output, the change of the flow direction of crude steel and the proportion of thread output also affect the pattern of the black industry chain to a certain extent. In the past, thread production accounted for a large proportion of crude steel output, but in recent years, with the recession of downstream infrastructure and real estate, the flow structure of crude steel has changed to a certain proportion. This change may lead to a relative decline in the status of threads in the black variety, while the status of raw materials such as iron ore has risen relatively high.
Iron ore advantage in black varieties Among black varieties, iron ore has a unique long advantage. First of all, iron ore has natural antifragility when the discount is large. Secondly, in the case of downstream overcapacity and lack of upstream pricing power, it is difficult to guarantee the profits of finished products such as threads; As a raw material variety, iron ore is in a relatively advantageous position in the industrial chain; Finally, the volatility of iron ore** tends to be greater than that of finished products such as threads, which provides investors with a higher profit and loss ratio and better trading opportunities.
The relationship to the P&L ratio is often fraught with uncertainty in trading. Even the most reasonable** can fall short because of an unexpected event. As a result, the P&L ratio becomes a more important factor in trading. A high profit-to-loss ratio means that even if you make a mistake, the loss is limited; And once the ** is correct, the benefits will be very substantial. This anti-fragility makes investors more comfortable in the face of uncertainty. In the black industry chain, the high discount of iron ore provides it with a natural advantage of high profit and loss ratio. Iron Ore Discount and Antifragility When the iron ore discount is maximized, the natural antifragility is one of its unique charms. Under the expectation of the flat control policy, iron ore ** was suppressed to a low level; However, once the policy is adjusted or the market demand picks up, the iron ore is expected to be strong. This kind of strength often exceeds that of other varieties, so that investors can obtain rich returns when seizing opportunities. In contrast, finished steel varieties such as threads are relatively weak in the face of policy adjustments and market changes.
ConclusionTo sum up, the dilemma and way out of the steel mill industry, the leading pattern in the black industry chain and the unique charm of iron ore all stem from the inconsistency of individual and collective interests and the existence of anti-fragility. In trading, we should pay more attention to the profit/loss ratio and anti-fragility rather than a single outcome. As the dominant variety among black varieties, iron ore has a higher profit-loss ratio and better antifragility performance in the face of uncertainty. Therefore, when configuring the varieties of the black industry chain, we should give more attention and attention to iron ore. Only in this way can we maintain a clear mind and keen insight in the complex and changeable market environment; In order to seize the fleeting investment opportunities and obtain stable and considerable returns.
Iron ore**