The ultra-long Spring Festival 8-day holiday, travel, tourism, movie watching and other data are eye-catching!
Ministry of Transport**,In 2024, the number of people traveling during the Spring Festival in China will reach an unprecedented 9 billion, of which 80% will be contributed by car self-driving. This is closely related to the vigorous popularization of automobile consumption in recent years (especially the purchase and ownership of new energy vehicles with low costs), after having a car, the cost of travel is reduced, the radius of activity is expanded, and they want to go out to go around, which has contributed to the 9 billion Spring Festival passengers.
Spring Festival holiday (February 10-February 17) domestic tourism travel 47.4 billion person-times, a year-on-year increase of 343%, an increase of 190% (on a comparable basis). The total cost of domestic tourists is 63268.7 billion yuan, an increase of 47 percent over last year3%, an increase of 77%。After the epidemic, consumption as a whole showed a "strong holiday".vsAnd "generally bland".characteristics.
For example, in 2023.
Five. 1. The number of trips during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday has increased by more than 10% compared with the same period in 2019, and the consumption boom in the summer of 2023 is more obvious, but the consumption and total social zero in 2023 will recover slowly, which is a certain gap compared with the pre-epidemic trend. This reflects that in the context of insufficient effective demand, the asymmetry of residents' consumption often chooses to be released in the holiday window.
In recent years, the growth of residents' disposable income has slowed down, and the shrinkage of assets has affected the wealth effect, resulting in financial constraints on residents' consumption. Residents' consumption "willingness" is acceptable, but the consumption "ability" is insufficient, and effective consumption demand is usually released in the holiday window, that is, a year is too hard, and it is fully released when reunited, so it shows that the holiday consumption enthusiasm is high and the consumption at other times is flat.
It is not difficult to understand that the increase in the number of tourist trips is significantly greater than the growth rate of per capita consumption. In terms of per capita spending, this year's Spring Festival tourism consumption decreased by 10% compared with 2019, and the number of holiday days decreased by 21% after adjustment. The pursuit of cost-effectiveIt is the biggest feature of holiday consumption in recent years. The number of tourists received during the holiday in the two provinces increased by about 7% year-on-year: Guangdong and Heilongjiang, and the signal behind it is very significant.
That is, northerners go south, and southerners go north. Or experience exotic alternatives, or value for money. For example, Yanji City in Jilin Province has entered the top 10 popular tourism provinces, and received 93 domestic tourists during the Spring Festival holiday this year70,000 person-times, achieving tourism income of 16400 million yuan. Ice and snow tourism, special catering, and Korean characteristics are to some extent a substitute for overseas tourism.
Of course, outbound travel has also increased significantly, and per capita tourism consumption has increased significantly. In 2023, the per capita consumption expenditure of mainland tourists in Hong Kong and Macau has significantly exceeded pre-pandemic levels. In the first three quarters of 2023, the per capita consumption expenditure of Chinese mainland tourists in Macao was higher than that of the same period in 2019. 6% and 603%, and the increase in staying at StarWorld Hotel is 100%-200%.
The per capita consumption of domestic tourism is declining, but overseas is increasing, behind which the gap between residents' income and consumption has widened。Consumption is another major feature. Whether it's movie box office or hotel and dining reservations, lower-tier cities are the biggest contributor to growth. In the first four days of the Spring Festival, hotel bookings in the county increased by 120% year-on-year, and the average daily consumption growth rate of life services in the fifth-tier areas of the Meituan platform was twice that of the first-tier areas.
Film and television literary and artistic works can best reflect the micro emotions of the moment。Jia Ling's "Hot and Hot" became the box office champion, and the English title of the film is interesting, yolo, you only live once, "You can only live once", which actually represents the awakening of people's self-consciousness in the post-epidemic era; Ren Suxi, who is not a singer and has a simple image, can have a solo stage in the Spring Festival Gala, "She with Pillow Light" sings into the hearts of the people, close to life, and can walk into the trajectory familiar to ordinary people, giving people a strong sense of steadfastness.
Life is short, don't be too wronged yourself, and live a true and sincere life. In the post-epidemic era and the post-bubble economy era, there will be less flashiness and more sincerity, and self-consciousness will be awakened. As the leader said in his New Year's message, "Society is fast-paced, everyone is busy, and work and life are under great pressure." Therefore, the rare Spring Festival holiday is too much to be simple and happy.
In recent years, on holidays, everyone has gone out to see and experience life more. When this consciousness gathers into a consensus, covering 1.4 billion people, especially in fourth, fifth and sixth-tier cities, and even tens of millions of villages, the overall data is very impressive. However, consumption has returned to rationality and normalcy, no longer desperately increasing leverage, and no longer exploring consumption patterns that are beyond their reach.
This kind of conceptual change can be found in any market segment, such as the property market.
If you look at the foreshadowing, it is not difficult to understand the coldness of the property market. The property market during the Spring Festival in the Year of the Dragon should be the coldest market in history. This kind of coldness is not just a decline in trading volume, but that everyone does not pay attention to itcare, and even voting with their feet (selling houses).
Of course, there are objective factors. During the Spring Festival holiday in 2024, the reason why the travel and consumption data performed well was driven by the lagging release of consumer demand from the three-year backlog of the epidemic. At the same time, during the 8-day holiday, everyone wants to go out and see, shopping malls and restaurants are weaving, and some people are stuck in traffic. These naturally have an impact on the flow of house viewing and buying houses, which is an objective factor for the weak property market.
However, whether it is a viewing experience or a gathering and chatting, we can see that the enthusiasm for the property market at the micro level is still cooling down, and we can all experience the impact of overdraft on consumption and families. For example, housing prices returned to 2019, and the new area was unfinished; Second-hand houses can't be sold or rented; the absorption rate of construction sites and house decoration to employment has declined; Slow employment, mortgage pressure, etc.
During the Spring Festival holiday, the sentiment of the property market is still in a downturn.
In January, the developer was half-flat. In January, new homes** in 30 key cities fell 47% month-on-month and 44% month-on-month compared to 2023. During the Spring Festival, the number of new homes during the Spring Festival week (February 9-15, 2024) in most cities is close to 0**.
Of course, there are objective reasons as well. For example, many companies have a holiday early before the year, such as just sprinting to the annual results, and people are sleepy. The most important thing is that the removal rate of new projects last year was 30%-50%. There is value in the sale of the market, and then the new market is launched, giving the market the feeling that it cannot be sold.
It's better not to push!
Not only is the enthusiasm not high, but there are no surprises in the discount.
It's understandable. On the one hand, selling houses at a reduced price will run through 2023, and the discount marketing will not stop, and the regular marketing discounts will continue during the Spring Festival, such as a fixed price, discounts, property gifts, home appliances, etc.; On the other hand, the developer knows that everyone has gone home and gone out, and the sales office is deserted, so it will maintain a smooth sales attitude. In addition, the price continues to be reduced, the effect is not good, and the brand is smashed.
In most cities, only 1-2 people are on duty in the sales offices of new projects. The author stepped on the market offline and found that the number of visits to the major sales offices during the Spring Festival was only about 20 groups. This is not much different from the average of 20-70 groups of customers during the Spring Festival. Developers sell smoothly, there is no more surprising discount, you can sell it, and you don't have to shout, buyers expect to reduce prices in the future, just look at it, the posture is very Buddhist, and the conversion rate is relatively low. **Disclosure, 8-day holidays in major cities, the average transaction per plate is less than 5 sets.
In Guangzhou, the author recently investigated several real estate projects in the central area and found several new phenomena:
One is,The overall market performance is consistent with the above, which means that the new property market policy introduced on January 27 last year has not been fulfilled at least during the holiday, depending on March and April.
The second is,The developer still has a posture of **. For example, all buildings in Guangzhou have New Year special offers during the Spring FestivalFor example, 1-2 more 98% off, 9% off a fixed price, 2 years of property fees; Some real estate sales said, "If you are sincere in buying, you can also apply for a discount from the leader." However, buyers at the scene believe that even if the developer claims that these discounts will be withdrawn after the holiday, there will be follow-ups.
It can be seen that market expectations have really changed!
The third is,Due to the unstable expectations of developers and the large number of competing products around, the pricing of new projects is more rational, and the value of products is no longer promoted by nihilistic planning. The difference between competing products is completely a reflection of hard injuries and advantagesFor example, the location from the subway and whether there are high-quality degrees.
One of the most common phrases marketers say is "you get what you pay for."
The house has really become a consumer product!
Fourth,There is still a market for cost-effective products, and the number of visits and conversion rates are relatively high. The so-called cost-effective is compared with competing productsComprehensive advantages in **, supporting facilities and location.
Five is,Some luxury houses are still good. Tianhe District is close to the CBD of a central enterprise to develop the real estate, the quality of the product is high, the housing rate is 102%, the famous school primary and secondary school is in the community, the price is more than 80,000, there is no channel, 8 sets of holidays are sold, most of them are one-time payments.
On the one hand, the product quality is excellent, there is no need for channels, and the aroma of wine is not afraid of deep alleys. On the other hand, as mentioned earlier, the purchasing power of high-income earners has not been affected. The differentiation of the property market is not only obvious in terms of regions and products, but also in purchasing power. If the price is high, it will not be sold.
Second-hand housing is doing well. According to the monitoring of the Shell Research Institute, the number of second-hand housing viewing and transaction volume in the key 50 cities during the Spring Festival holiday in 2024 will rebound significantly compared with 2023. According to the average daily statistics, in terms of energy level, the first-tier cities increased by 90% compared with last year's Spring Festival, only slightly lower than in 2021; Tier 2 cities increased by 180% and Tier 3 cities increased by 140%, both significantly exceeding those in 2023 and 2021.
The second-hand housing market continues its trend in 2023. On the one hand, there is a concern about the delivery of off-plan properties; On the other hand, second-hand housing has degree and location advantages; In addition, in the same period last year, second-hand housing was shown, negotiated and traded, which was affected by the epidemic, and the base was low in the same period; More importantly, there are more small second-hand houses and the total price is controllable, and the rigid demand and part of the improvement demand squeezed out by the new houses that focus on improvement and luxury houses have to be transferred to the second-hand housing market. For example, in Guangzhou, second-hand housing transactions with a total price of less than 3 million yuan will account for 65% in 2023.
Six isIn addition to the lack of high-quality projects (often luxury real estate projects), the projects for sale generally have competing products, the channelization is very significant, and the commission rate is also expensive.
At present, the pressure on the supply side is still there, the vitality of the demand side has not yet recovered, and whether consumption and the property market can continue to stabilize and improve in the futureIt is still necessary to pay attention to the support and implementation of policies to stabilize employment, stabilize growth, protect people's livelihood and ensure operation.
But no matter what, the general trend of houses fading from financial attributes and residents fading from chasing house wealth is irreversible. When the house returns from financial goods to ordinary consumer goods, from the wealth chased by the whole people to the consumption of residence, bidding farewell to the irrational boom period of rapid progress, the decline in the volume and price of the property market can be imagined (because the determinants are completely different), and it is still in this process.