In the past, buying a house was a "steady profit" project in the eyes of many people, because the housing price in the years promoted by the shed reform really reached the level of "one price a day", so the first batch of people to buy a house undoubtedly succeeded in doubling their wealth. However, due to the impact of the epidemic and the reform of the property market, housing prices** have become more and more difficult, and the next changes in the property market are confusing and unpredictable.
Now that the Spring Festival in 2024 is coming, and in the context of continued inflation, many people are also wondering whether they should put their money in the bank this year, or take advantage of the low housing prices to invest in the market? After all, many friends are worried that money will depreciate, not to mention that the deposit interest rate has dropped sharply recently, which is indeed a headache.
In fact, as long as we figure out what is next"Money is more valuable, assets are not rising", or "currency is released and housing prices are rising"? to be able to make the right choice.
First of all, let's analyze the question of "will money be more valuable", that is, how prices will change in the future.
Friends who have investment experience should know that China's housing prices have risen rapidly in 2009 and 2015, and at the same time, ** has also followed all the way to Changhong, when the money into ** and real estate people, have received this wave of wealth; On the contrary, if you have money in your hand at that time, but you put it in the bank to eat interest, you will become a "victim" of inflation.
So why did house prices and ** suddenly rise in those two years? A closer look at the data shows that there were two key economic data changes at that time, and that was at that timeThe growth rate of M1 (i.e., narrow money) is significantly greater than that of M2 (i.e., broad money), and then there is this wave of housing prices and **sudden**.
For those who don't know economics, the data of M1 and M2 are indeed a bit difficult to understand, but you only need to understand the phenomenon caused by the change between them, and it is very clear. For example, when the data M1 (growth rate) is greater than M2, the market economy is active, which means that people will take out their money to invest or consume; On the contrary, if M1 (growth rate) is less than M2, it means that everyone is not spending money anymore and saving all their money, which is the situation we are currently experiencing.
However, what makes people puzzled is that in the past two years, China has implemented a relatively loose monetary policy, that is, what the people say"Printing money and releasing water".But our prices have not appeared sharply, whether it is the property market or **, in the case of monetary easing and not**, which shows that the current situation is completely different from previous years.
In fact, the reason is very simple, because the extra money has not really flowed into the property market and **. The extra money is actually used by the people to repay debts, which is the key factor that this monetary easing policy cannot stimulate the economy.
In the past few years, people did not rely on deposits to buy houses, but constantly increased leverage and debt. Look at your friends, who hasn't been burdened with a mortgage for more than ten or even 30 years now? When people can't increase their debt, it's hard for house prices to come back**.
Judging from the data, before the property market really got up, the debt ratio of Chinese residents in 2008 was only about 20%, but now the debt ratio of Chinese residents has jumped to 65%, and this value is close to the internationally defined "danger range", so we find that now the property market and ** are also quietly changing.
To sum up, should the average person save money or buy a house in 2024? We believe that buying a house is not the best policy, and it depends on the next policy changes, and it is relatively prudent to hold the currency and wait and see.
I don't know what everyone thinks about this?