1.5KW-22KW, this power segment is the real meaning of small DC, and "OBC + AC pile" constitute two slow charging technology routes that compete with each other and coexist for a long time.
Slow charging DC, this topic has become a hot topic since 2018, and in 2019, it has become a consensus, but it is not as fast as imagined.
I have written many related articles, the most recent one is a synthesis of the previous one, friends who have just entered the industry can read this first: slow charging DC: low power, high density, exhaustion of valley power and distributed power, more related articles please see the list link at the end of this article.
In 2035, all charging piles will be bi-directional. This assertion of mine is considered conservative by many people. If we say conservative, then 2032?
It is difficult to predict the arrival of the "trend" and the inflection point from quantitative to qualitative change. On October 4, 1945, ** replied to Liu Yazi, once again emphatically pointing out:The future is bright, but the road is tortuous。In 1947, the chairman traveled to northern Shaanxi, and the chasing soldiers were behind the butt every day, and the most recent one was only a dozen kilometers, which seemed to be extremely difficult. In July of that year, the chairman proposed that the struggle against Chiang Kai-shek should be resolved in five years. Soon, however, the whole country was liberated.
I'm very proud of the following paragraphs about the trend, and I'll post it again to make up the word count. Historically, trends have always been strikingly consistent.
The trend is: in 2017, the great Wang Chuanfu always said that if the penetration rate of electric vehicles can reach 1% this year, it will be a landmark progress. In 2019, pessimists are desperate for electric vehicles. My fellow countryman, handsome guy Brother Bin, became "the worst man in 2019". Another fellow of mine, Comrade Wang Chuanfu, choked up at the open meeting and stared into the abyss every night. The prospect of replacing petrol cars with trams is so hopeless!
In 2020, people and bystanders are basically not optimistic. Electric vehicle sales have hovered around 1 million for the third year in a row.
In 2021, suddenly the market was hot. To B has been exhausted, and to C has become the main body of the market。Sales of electric vehicles that rely on subsidies and taxis and ride-hailing services are already far smaller than market-driven sales.
In June 2022, Shenzhen's electric vehicle penetration rate reached 46%.
The trend is: at the beginning of the trend, the public was generally skeptical, questioning, and even desperate, but suddenly reached an inflection point, and the trend changed so quickly that it was lightning fast.
The trend is stagnant before the inflection point, but the inflection point is coming.
Electric vehicle sales: 560,000 in 2017, 1.05 million in 2018, 1.06 million in 2019, 1.23 million in 2020, and 3.5 million in 2021.
The faculty's quote poetizes the subtlety and beauty of the trend:
It is a ship that stands on the shore and looks at the sea and can already see the tip of the mast, it is standing on the top of a high mountain, looking at the east from afar, it is a round of sunrise that is about to burst out, it is restless in the mother's womb and is about to mature a baby.
The mystery of the trend was hidden in the autumn of 1945. The instructor put on his hat and waved his hand, full of confidence. However, Chang Shenkai is also full of confidence.
Who represents the trend? During the 43 days in Chongqing in 1945, the instructors and Chang Shenkai tried their best to act, but they were secretly deploying troops.
Most people don't think the faculty is going to win. Just like history in the autumn of 2022, there are still many people who do not think that going to OBC is inevitable. OBC manufacturers are fighting on the OBC track.
With the victory of the Tashan Resistance Battle, history has actually reached a turning point. After that, it was the speed of destruction.
Looking back at the roadmap I have proposed, it seems that the process of going to the OBC is faster than expected, but in reality, there are obstaclesThe obstacle comes from the mutual attack between the sales of car companies, and the models without OBC have become the target of attack by car companies' friends。This kind of obstacle, in the future, in the historical interpretation process, belongs to the "hehe" episode, but now it has become a huge entanglement for car company model decision-makers.
Let's sort out the 8 major milestones in the roadmap. The most radical 8th node (all models are all de-obc) has already been done by three companies, so it seems that the inflection point is very close, but in fact it is not.
Commercial vehicles: light trucks, heavy trucks
Nearly 100% of them have been removed from OBC, and it took 8 years before and after.
Commercial vehicles: minivans
Nearly 100% of them have been removed from OBC, and it took 8 years before and after.
Passenger cars: taxis, ride-hailing
Nearly 100% of them have been removed from OBC, and it took 8 years before and after.
Passenger car: A00
At present, there are only 2 Geely Panda mini models. There are a total of 4 models of this modelSold very well, the sales of the 2 models with the OBC removed are much higher than the 2 models without the OBC removed.
Passenger cars: Hybrid
At present, there are only 2 models of Dongfeng Nissan Qicheng V. There are a total of 4 models of this model, and the sales of 2 models without OBC are much higher than without them.
Passenger cars: OBC as an option
Passenger cars: a certain model pilot, completely removed
Hongqi's most popular EQM5 removes the OBC,It was sold as a hit.
Passenger car companies: All models are removed from OBC
Only the three car companies of Weilai, Ruilan, and Jiyue have all removed the OBC.
In 2024, the sales of electric vehicles will exceed 10 million for the first time, and the sales of models de-OBC are expected to reach 600,000. If you only take the small DC as the company's main business, the performance that can be confirmed is the first. No. 4 and No. 5, theoretically speaking, car companies are not under pressure, but they are still in a fierce battle, and two models may be added in 2024. Another basic performance is that 11kW and 20kW small DC are used as options for car companies to replace 11kW OBC and AC piles. Except for joint venture brands and foreign-funded car companies, domestic car companies almost all limit OBC to 66KW, no longer engage in higher power OBC. My 11kw obc prophecy has come true again.
It is up to the car company to decide whether to go to the OBC or not。Car companies are worried that going to OBC is a factor that affects sales, although this factor does not know how many units it will affect, and under the pressure of car companies' sales, they may feel that it is best to have one less impact. However, Hongqi EQM5 and Geely Panda Mini have been removed, and sales are very good!
The process of de-OBC continues to move forward, and the product technology evolution of small DC is like a portable 15kw (rated input 220v 8a, the real meaning of small DC in the eyes of Secretary General Liu and Mr. Ni) may be used in the future to make natural cooling, 7kw wall-mounted to make natural cooling as a high-end top stream, at the same time, the other pole of 7kw wall-mounted is ,The cost has achieved "DC ** AC".
With the deployment of "one-kilometer super fast charging per second", with the implementation of standards and policies for two-way charging piles, and with the white-hot and cruel competition between car companies, the inflection point of slow charging DC may come in 2027. However, from this year 2024 to 2032, both AC charging piles and small DC will exist at the same time. In this process, we must firmly believe that "the road is tortuous".
In a sense, it should be said that in the sense of packaging (beautifying) myself, I am the standard-bearer and godfather of the small DC industry. Energy Efficiency Electric is a leading enterprise in the small DC industry. To be exact, we worked so hard to create this track. However, from a business point of view, it is irrational and unpragmatic idealism to be content with being a standard-bearer. From the perspective of achieving a successful and great enterprise, energy efficiency electrical needs to ensure rapid growth in the big track of charging piles in this beautiful era
Energy Efficiency Electric is the only company in the world that provides from DC to AC, from one-way to bidirectional, from charging modules to charging piles, from forced air cooling to independent air ducts, liquid cooling, from integrated to split, from national standard to European standard, American standard, from 1Enterprises with full-scene coverage and full-stack self-developed charging piles from 5kW to 1200kW.