Wen Ping'an**Chief EconomistZhong Zhengsheng, Ping An** macro analystChang Yixin
Since January, the performance of industrial production and construction has been generally stronger than the seasonal pattern, thanks to the late Spring Festival and driven by trillions of treasury bonds, PSL and other funds. On the demand side, passenger and freight activity was high before the Spring Festival, and external demand also had marginal recovery, but the real estate sales center fell further.
Industrial
Judging from high-frequency data, since January, the overall performance of industrial production has been slightly stronger than the seasonal pattern. Among them, the production of steel, cement, asphalt, textiles and other industrial products fell seasonally month-on-month, but the production of chemical products such as Shandong refining, soda ash, methanol, pure benzene, and polyvinyl chloride recovered month-on-month. From the production, demand and inventory of industrial products such as steel, cement, petroleum asphalt, etc., the construction performance in January was stronger than the seasonal pattern, thanks to the late Spring Festival and driven by trillions of national bonds, PSL and other funds.
First, steel production in the off-season is reduced and destocked. In terms of production, in the past four weeks, the average daily output of molten iron and the average operating rate of blast furnaces of major steel mills have dropped slightly compared with the previous month, and the rhythm has gradually rebounded, due to the resumption of production lines in the early stage of maintenance; The performance of steel products was weaker than that of molten iron, of which the output of building materials (rebar and wire rod) fell by 7 from the previous month9%, the output of plates (hot-rolled coils, cold-rolled coils and medium and heavy plates) fell by 1 from the previous month6%；Compared with the same period of the lunar calendar last year, the output of plate products increased by 14%, inventory growth is only 06%, while the output of building materials was -15%, and the inventory was 12 percent higher than that of the same period last year7%。On the demand side, the apparent demand for plates in the past four weeks was weaker than the seasonal pattern, and the decline was greater than that of the same period from 2019 to 2023. The apparent demand for building materials was slightly weaker than the same period in the 2023 lunar calendar, but stronger than the same period in the lunar calendar from 2019 to 2022.
Second, cement destocking in the off-season, demand is resilient. In the first two weeks of January, the operating rate of cement mills decreased slightly, and the year-on-year decline in the lunar calendar narrowed; The cement storage capacity ratio continued to fall, 10 lower than the same period last year5%；The cement shipment rate was -13 month-on-month1%, which is stronger than -16 in the same period of the lunar calendar from 2019 to 20237%。
Third, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt has fallen. Since January, the international oil price has appeared, and the dilution of asphalt is discounted, the cost of asphalt production has risen, and the demand for asphalt in winter is in the off-season, and the processing loss has intensified to reduce its production enthusiasm.
Fourth, the production of chemical raw materials has mostly recovered. The operating rate of chemical products such as Shandong refining, soda ash, methanol, pure benzene, and polyvinyl chloride has increased.
Fifth, the operating rate of the middle and lower reaches of the textile industry has fallen seasonally. Since January, the Spring Festival is approaching, and the operating rate of polyester chips and polyester filament looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces in the middle and lower reaches of textiles has fallen, but its decline is lower than that of the same period in the lunar calendar in recent years.
Sixth, the operating rate of automobile tires has increased. After New Year's Day, the production lines that were overhauled in the early stage resumed work one after another.
1.Steel
2.cement
3.Chemicals
4.Textile
5.Cars
Real estate
The pivot of new home sales has fallen. In the past four weeks, the average daily transaction area of new homes in the 61 sample cities we counted fell by 30% month-on-month compared with December last year, and the year-on-year decline in the lunar calendar expanded to 44%, which was -57% lower than the average of the same period in the lunar calendar from 2019 to 2021 (-44% in December last year).
Look at the energy level of the city,In the past four weeks, the average daily transaction area of new houses has fallen year-on-year, with a greater decline in the first line (-26%) and second line (-34%) month-on-month, and a slightly weaker decline in the third line (-13%) and fourth and fifth lines (-18%).
The sales area of second-hand houses maintained a year-on-year growth trend. In the past four weeks, the average daily area of second-hand houses in 15 sample cities fell by 9% compared with December last year, and the lunar calendar increased by about 26% year-on-year, which was -57% lower than the average of the same period in the lunar calendar from 2019 to 2021 (-50% in December last year). On a comparable basis, the transaction area of second-hand houses accounted for 40%, and the margin declined.
Domestic demand
Since January, the freight index has rebounded year-on-year, the passenger traffic index has increased month-on-month, and household consumption has continued to recover weakly.
First, freight traffic rebounded year-on-year. 1) According to G7 data, since January (as of the 27th), the average volume of truckload freight flow, the throughput of public logistics parks, and the throughput index of distribution centers of major express delivery companies has increased compared with December last year. 6% and 2%, the year-on-year performance has improved significantly from a low base. 2) According to the data of the Ministry of Transport, from January 1 to 21, the number of highway truck traffic, railway freight volume, and civil aviation guaranteed freight flights increased year-on-year. 8%、-4.5%, both up from December last year.
Second, passenger traffic increased month-on-month. Since January (as of the 26th), the average daily passenger volume of the subway in 24 cities has increased by 1 compared with December last year5%, and the number of domestic flights increased by 9 compared with the average in December last year6%, and the average number of flights operated by international and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan increased by 5 compared with the average in December last year8%；The migration index increased by 8 percent from the average in December last year9%, which is 36% higher than the same period in the lunar calendar in 2023.
Third, the weak recovery of household consumption. 1) According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, the retail sales of the passenger car market in the first 21 days of January increased by 46% year-on-year, but weaker than the same period in 2022. There are 22 working days in January this year, 4 days more than the 18 working days in January 2023, and the effective production and sales time before the holiday will be longer, and the good start effect will be more prominent. 2) The box office popularity of the movie is not high. Since January (as of the 27th), the average daily box office of films across the country has been about 88.44 million yuan, lower than the average of 2019 and 2021.
External demand
External demand recovered month-on-month. 1) In January 2024, the preliminary manufacturing PMI of the United States and Europe rebounded by 2 from the previous month4 and 22 percentage points.
2) Export container freight rates have risen sharply. Since January, China's export container freight rate has been **543%, and the freight rates of routes to Europe and other major regions are mostly **.
3) Port cargo and container throughput rebounded. According to the data of the Ministry of Transport, the cumulative cargo throughput of the monitored ports from January 1 to 21 increased by 8 percent compared with the average of December1%, a year-on-year increase of 171%；The container throughput increased by 11 compared with the average value in December7%, a year-on-year increase of 148%。
Article**丨Zhong Zhengsheng's economic analysis***This article is edited by Zhou Mingyi.
Editor-in-charge丨 Ding Kaiyan.
Proofreading丨Lan Yinfan.
Preliminary trial丨Xu Lanying.
Final Review丨Zhang Wei